Nicholas Profile picture
Jul 28 7 tweets 2 min read
In the game of attrition, the fascist is losing decisively.
The population is resilient against atrocities.
PDFs arent paid. Fully voluntary. Growing everyday.
While the regime suffer daily losses. Running out of money. Losing control. 1/
#MyanmarRevolution
Yet, still hv to offer rewards and benefits to entice its followers. Have to run large logistics network to constantly supply its ever stretching frontlines. Economy tanked, revenue tanked to support long term war. 2/
Like i mentioned many times before, fascist sit-tat still looks cohesive due to its perceived formability, i.e "we never lose before".
That's what they believe. Thats why many soldiers and officers choose not to surrender in mass. 3/
To maintain that composure, sit-tat cannot afford to lose cities, bases or regions. The moment they lose, the moment that composure is lost, then sit-tat is a lost cause. Remember Afghanistan. It crumbles in days. Its about pushing to tipping point. 4/
What is that tipping point?
1) economic
SAC run out of money, unable to pay its troops, buy arms, buy raw materials.
2) military
Sit-tat lose decisive battle. Not just an outpost or two. Maybe an entire convoy destoryed. Regional HQ seized. Lost artillery. Lost airforce. 5/
3) internal
Creeping lost of men on the fronts will take significant toll on its morale and families.
Military families live side by side in the camps. If there's significant losses of men, ppl will get grumpy. News will spread like wildfire.
Until some decide enough is enough.6/
All these scenarios can happen anytime now. Or maybe all at once.
I am hoping fascist regime wont last till the end of year.
Of course, if the intl community helped, it could be even faster. 7/

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More from @nicholas6284

Jul 29
THREAD:
Some context for those who's new to #Myanmar.
As we see Sagaing has become the heart of revolution over the past few months. History of Sagaing. 1/ Image
Sagaing, along with Magway and Mandalay regions make up the flatlands of MM. Dry and hot. But also agriculturally productive regions. The great Ayeyarwaddy river flows from north to south. 2/ Image
These region form the birthplace of Burmese culture and identity. From Bagan era to Ava (Inwa) till the last Konbaung dynasty of Burma, all emerged from these region. 3/ Image
Read 14 tweets
Jul 28
The way fascist sit-tat is doing is that they are purposely tanking the economy so that ppl are too busy surviving, unable to support the revolution. Crime waves have taken over the cities. Criminals run ramparts. Junta wants that. 1/
#MyanmarRevolution
We have news that the fascist sit-tat is stocking food supplies for a year. They also hoarded USD reserve. And with force and repression, they can also acquire fuel and medicine for their own institution. They're going into survival mode.2/
All they hv to do now is that to survive longer than the ppl will. When economic hardship set in, ppl can no longer invest in the revolution. Or no more money to support. Then they will restart with anything that left over the country. At least thats the plan. 3/
Read 5 tweets
Jul 28
Let me reiterate my thread with this analysis on Ukraine war.
Time, economic, logistics, landscape, mode of combat, ethos, strategy. 1/

snyder.substack.com/p/the-state-of…
Time: MAL calculated swift victory and population would eventually accept military rule. Thats why he promised an election within 1 yr but we all know he is dragging. Now hes closer to even abolishing their very own 08 const. 2/
Economic: Myanmar economy dived after coup, dwindling foreign reserve made the MMK valued tanked as much as 50% and still seeing no bottom. Boycotts, sanctions and war deduced state revenue further. Hyperinflation maybe coming soon.3/
Read 8 tweets
May 5
People's Soldiers Production Team has released their latest version of drone-dropped bomblets, claiming to have twice the energy of similar sized bombs.
This design looks interesting.
#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar Image
For those who dont know, these bomblets are developed by resistance groups in the jungle of Myanmar to fight against Russia-backed junta.
We have been using drone for months.
This is the example:
Read 5 tweets
Mar 23
Sth interesting happened these days. Aung Than Oo, current serving minister of commerce at Ygn division under SAC, a senior member of USDP, ex-general and ex-MP during Thein Sein era was arrested at his office along with his entire family and properties seized.
Zaygabar U Khin Shwe, the crony capitalist who was also USDP member, ex-MP during Thein Sein era, parents-in-laws with Shwe Mann, close frd w/ Than Shwe was also arrested along w/ his son, as well as all their properties seized.
#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar
The saga continues with ex-Yangon governor, Hla Soe, who was appointed by SAC just a few mths earlier & got replaced on Feb 22 was also arrested.
Read 6 tweets

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