Thread by @DefMon3

Update 🧵July 28h. Visit the interactive map for more details and explanations.

My good old friend Ladarov is back due to lack of inspiration.

Interactive map: scribblemaps.com/maps/view/2022…

GSUA reported 65 shelling locations this morning.

Early FIRMS data, something is wrong with one of the data files, so this is not complete.

Izium area.
Based on recent information about Pasika, I consider Bohorodychne liberated.

RU forces attacked the following directions without success:
Pasika ->Dolyna
Dovhen'ke -> Mazanivka

Comaring presumed RU area of control 28/7 in red vs 25/7 in yellow (D/M)
Dmytrivka - Bohorodychne

According to @serhey_hayday had to retreat after an attack between Bilohorivka and Verkhnokamianske.

https://twitter.com/serhey_hayday/status/1552551432431312896

RU attacks from multiple directions have been repulsed by Ukrainian attack bats.
GSUA mentioned an attack from Volodymyrivka, but they also mentioned RU shellings "near" the village.
I think AFU holds the high ground to the north of Volodymyrivka.

The area north of Volodymyrivka is a pretty cool area, I was made aware of this back in April. At this point it's I think its safe to assume RuAF are aware of this information.
This are is full of sink holes, some of them are actually cave entrances, these can be seen on google.

I assume these caves can be used to hide from RU artillery, or at least provide decent cover for ammo. I'm not sure how stable the caves are. This is like a mini Afghanistan.
goo.gl/maps/4ZYQKN8aD…

RuAF attacked in the direcions of
Klynove -> Bakhmut
Myronivka -> Semyhirja
Vidrodzhennya -> Vershyna
In the direction of Vershyna, RuAF managed to entrench them selves SE of the village.

There were reports of massive shellings and also attacks on Avdiivka and Pisky yesterday. From what I heard, the attacking militia had no success.
The Avdiivka area is supposed to be very well fortified
Igor "Strelkov" Girkin calls these attempts stupid.

https://twitter.com/EcasticF/status/1552421570144047106

Velyka Novosilka - Volodymyrivka area.
I believe the AFU is making incremental gains in this area. A shelling near Mykil's'ke and RU armor getting hit in Blahodatne are signs of this in my opinion.

Northern Kherson. The AFU blocked a RU attack in the Bilohirka. It seems like the Ukrainian forces want to keep this bridge head. This area gives fire control over the T2207 probably used to supply the RuAF in the Vysokopillya area.

The other major road to Vysokopillya from the east is also cut of by the AFU. RuAF needs to rely on the road gong across the fields, but this is nothing more than a bad dirt road, this road does not provide optimal driving conditions for trucks going in two directions.

I believe the Kherson situation is a win-win for the AFU, I've been calling this the Kherson Heist.

1. If they can get the RuAF to withdraw from this side of the Dnipro by stopping their supplies, they will have avoided a lot of military and civilian casualties.

If they achieve this, they have a great natural defense line in the form of Dnipro, and might be able to relocate resources to the Zaporizhzhia area, where I think the AFU will concentrate their main effort when they go on the offensive. (but so will the RuAF)

It would be a huge win for Ukraine to liberate one of the three large population areas captured by the Russians. This will ensure future support from the west in forms of money and weapons.

2. If they can get the RuAF to send reinforcements to the west side of the Dnipro, they might be able to trap them by controlling the access routes for the supply.
We have seen evidence of the AFU being able to with precision take out the bridges over Dnipro.

This could result in a long drawn out fight, where I believe the goal from the AFU would be to disable the RuAFs abilities to maneuver by denying them supplies.
I do not believe on in a full out ground assault on Kherson City from the AFU.

By binding RuAF to the west side of the Dnipro, taking out their ability to resupply and also redeploy to other areas could create favorable conditions for an AFU in the Zaporizhzhia direction.

I think that cutting the RuAF supply route from Crimea is of importance to liberate the south, and I think we are seeing a setup for that right now.

I think there are interesting options for marine and airborne maneuvers here from the Ukrainian side here. We know they have both Boats and Helicopters provided by the west.

Satellite from this morning showing the Russian barge ferry over the Dnipro in Kherson, plus an earlier image for comparison.

Photo taken from the ferry.

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1552622416383311874

This image from this morning show us there is no pontoon bridge by Dar'ivka. Not even one camouflaged by twigs.

Possibly an attempt to hide pontoon sections by the railway bridge. 46.6599, 32.7955

https://twitter.com/ArtisanalAPT/status/1552680142102822912

There is some kind of disturbance of the ground at the south end of the railway bridge over Dnipro. This could possibly be damage from AFU attacks or disturbance from repair work.

109 Shellings, New record.
I accidently closed my update thread, lost about 30min, ill keep the evening update short.

FIRMS, Melitopol area probably not due to combat.

RuAF Recon failed around Brazhkivka, suffered losses and left.

RuAF attacks were repulsed by Yakovlivka, Bakhmut and Semyhirja. RuAF recon (by combat I assume) in the area of Berestove and Nahirne failed.

I wrote about this earlier and yesterday, attacks by pro ru militia failed around Avdiivka and Pisky. They used Ukrainian uniforms with AFU marks in breach of international law to try to fool the AFU.

Possibly another piece of pontoon bridge in hiding. 46.63726, 32.71447

https://twitter.com/nepalius1337/status/1552699204711157761

If I understand things correctly, AFT liberated Ol'hyne, and the RuAF are now up to their belly in shit.
Source: facebook.com/okPivden/posts…

Another indicator of Ol'hyne being liberated is a RU shelling around Novopetrivka