2/ For those unfamiliar with them, single prints look like this (orange box) on a TPO profile. They represent areas in which there has been no proper 2-way trade. That makes them areas of interest and, on the other hand, they can help us gauge the strength of buyers and sellers.
3/ Single prints, gaps, low volume nodes. They all share a similar principle, with different degrees of relevance. But what they signal is that the market sped through that area. Another way of seeing it is thinking of them as emotional buying or selling.
4/ Imagine that a new iPhone comes out and it’s got everything that one could wish for in a phone and more. Everybody wants to get their hands on one and they’re afraid the inventory is going to be gone before they can buy one, so they start outbidding each other...
5/ ... desperate to get a new iPhone. Once the frenzy fades, people might start to think if the iPhones are really that valuable or if they just got ahead of themselves in the heat of the moment.
6/ If we have single prints below us, for example, it signals that buyers wanted to buy immediately, irregardless of higher and higher prices. While sellers, seeing that they kept getting filled at higher and higher prices, kept putting their offers higher and higher.
7/ By the way, “buyers” in this example can mean buyers initiating or shorts trying to cover. It doesn’t matter. At this point they’re both buyers. Remember, the moment you buy, you become a seller. And the moment you sell short, you become a buyer.
8/ So, back to the single prints. We’ve got single prints below us in our example. As long as buyers manage to “defend” that area, I consider them stronger. Why? Because participants are still convinced that, at least for now, value is to be found above that area.
9/ No need to go back and really find out if value is to be found there or if the market got ahead of itself.
10/ Why are single prints areas of interest? Because, once the aforementioned conviction recedes, there’s an interest in going back and retesting those areas.
11/ Find out what market participants are now willing to do there. If the single prints are filled, it could signal that sellers (in our example) might have become stronger now.
12/ As @Michigandolf likes to say: “LVNs are areas where the market has to make a decision”. The same applies for single prints and gaps. If they remain unfilled, the market still thinks that fair value is “on this side”. If they get filled, we might flip over to the other side.
13/ BTW, a simple “trick” to identify single prints if your platform doesn’t have TPO profiles:
Take a 30min chart and look for areas, within the same session, in which there’s no overlapping of candles (including the wicks).
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In its constant search for fair value, the market looks for selling exhaustion at the lows (the demand exceeds the supply and sellers are getting filled at higher prices so there’s no more interest to sell at lower prices)...
... and buying exhaustion at the highs (the supply exceeds the demand and buyers are getting filled at lower prices so there’s no more interest to buy at lower prices).
1/ A lot of you asked on my last thread if I've got rules for my entries and stops on the ORL to mid trade. I don't, I do it based on what I'm seeing. To be honest, I don't know if it's the best way to trade this idea but it's the one that fits my style.
Here are some examples:
2/ From last Thursday:
- Sellers can't get below the PDL and get trapped/absorbed.
- When we come back, we do with lower volume and they can't even get to the IBL.
- Once we get back inside the OR again, we get a clean rejection of the ORL resulting in a short covering rally.
3/ - The RTH VWAP being just above the OR mid made it also easier to hold to target.
1/ Many of you might have read @Michigandolf’s tweets about the ORL to ORM trade and probably also follow me after Horse mentioned me in such tweets.
I thought you might be interested in how this trade came to be and what I learned from all this. So, here’s a 🧵 about it:
2/ It all started after seeing some great stats shared by @TheFakeAlec about the odds of each period putting a LOD or HOD.
That made me wonder if I could find anything interesting by doing some backtesting on the 30min OR in addition to what I had learned from Horse.
3/ So, I started looking at what happened in the past months (this was mid December 2021). I didn’t have an idea or thesis that needed an answer, I just defined some things I wanted to look at and started logging them.
1/ I've been reworking my daily debriefs and wanted to share the new format with you, guys.
I think doing a proper debrief at the end of the day is very, very helpful since we might have our actions during the day completely different in our minds than how they actually were.
2/ The header is pretty basic but something I find helpful is to give each day a name. It might be a general name (FOMC) or something personal (First time holding a trade for more than 20pt), but I think this helps to recall the day when looking back at it sometime in the future.
3/ Next thing is a quick overview of my goals and the actual results compared to those goals. The idea here is, of course, to get better over time. We might slip into old patterns now and then, but the goal should be to have consistent YES's...
1/ Some further stats on #ES, this time focused on the 30min OR. As well observed by @Michigandolf on my last thread, results might be a bit skewed due to the high volatility in the past weeks. Similar as the last thread, these figures are also based on the past 90 days.
2/ Some notes first:
• Figures are rounded to a quarter of a percent.
• Any breakout smaller than 3pts is counted as a false breakout.
• Time zone used is ET
3/ General Stats:
• The OR is broken 97% of the time.
• 56.50% of the time there’s a retest of the OR boundary within 20m after the breakout.