Thread by @DefMon3

Update 🧵July 29h. Visit the interactive map for more details and explanations.
I just don't have time to find sponsors.
Interactive map: scribblemaps.com/maps/view/2022…

GSUA reported 70 shellings

Firms not showing much yet.

Members of the Lada Roulette had no success in the area of Vershyna and Semyhirja, The AFU stop their attacks.
Fighting is ongoing around Soledar and Novoluhans'ke

In the Donetsk area, an embarrassing constellation of 1st and 2nd AC of pro-ru militia are trying to attack and reconnaissance AFU positions around Avdiivka, Krasnohorivka, Vodyanoy and Pisky.

RuAF tried to attack in the direction of Velyka Novosilka, stopped by the glorious warriors of the AFU.
The RU 42nd Guards Motor Rifle Division operates in this area.

Yesterday UA operational command south indicated Ol'hyne was liberated, this in conjunction with shellings reported near Novopetrivka twice makes me think mothers of the RU soldiers in Vysokopillya are starting to call their local Lada salesmen.

In the southern parts of Kherson, it seems like the RU forces are tired of the bad luck they have had with smoking accidents, so they have decided offer a sacrifice to the mighty HIMARS god, to possibly improve their luck.

https://twitter.com/COUPSURE/status/1552918575098331137

I expect they will be unhappy with the response from the mighty HIMARS god.

This is in line with the info I have. They are trying to form a 3rd Army Corps. They are trying to gather 15000 men but curranty only have 5500. They are trying to have it done by mid August. 1/2

https://twitter.com/WhereisRussia/status/1552971826875322368

I assume they try to find already trained people for this. But even if they would manage to form it, they will need quite some time to get up to speed and get organized.
I have a list of units for this, but I need to get the translation confirmed. 2/2

This is a BMP-1AM (pic 1). There are only a few units operating those, but from any unit that would have a V on them I only know of (RU) 38th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade. There are also pictures (pic2, 3) of this train from two different locations.

One of the locations was identified as Novooleksiivka, Kherson Oblast, I'm not sure by whom. I have spend over 4 hours to find the other location, without success. h/t @WeltraumAffe207 and @MattNoonAU found that location in the area of Taman, just east of Kerch bridge.

According to @KofmanMichael RuAF are moving 8-9 BTGs to the Kherson/Zaporizhzhia area. This goes in line with my earlier suggestions that a large number of troops have been moved away from the Izium area.

https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1552978414801412097

Additional the 76th Guards Air Assault Division have relocated 5-6 BTGs from the Bakhmut area to the Kerson area, west of the Dnipro. 106th Guards Airborne Division are on their way or already there.

https://twitter.com/The_Lookout_N/status/1552975051204575237

Post with VDV moving a few days ago in Melitopol area.

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1551622656881041408

This is a pretty significant reinforcement in the southern regions. I think it's likely they are trying to reinforce both Kherson and Zaporizhzhia directions.
I still think the logistics situation for the Russian will be horrible. I'm not sure how more troops are going to help

With the reduction in troops in the Izium area, I don't think its unlikely that my "plan c" from may is out of the question.

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1522961200950222850

Do keep in mind, RuAF are probably switching to a defensive stance in the area west of Slovyansk, I do not think they can have great expectations of advancement in that area for the foreseeable future.

Btw, interesting podcast with @KofmanMichael
warontherocks.com/2022/07/ukrain…

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1553041200076185604

https://twitter.com/MantisT0boggan/status/1553049008083333121

Updated the shellings to 99 Locations based on GSUA reports.

FIRMS Data: 2022-07-29_18:43
Added 306 locations to kml
Filtered 350 locations by proximity to other fires
Removed 41 false positives

RuAF tried to recon around Shchurivka, got unlucky.

Bakhmut area. In adition to earlier reports, RU pigdogs tried to operate in the area of Soledar, Vershyna, Semyhirja and Verkhn'okam'yans'ke. They failed. The success rate of the pigdogs are a direct reflection of "Russian quality"

As expected, all attacks by the DPR/LPR forces failed in the Donetsk area.

I'm working on relocating RU troops from the Eastern frontline on the map to the southern parts, but this might take some time. Units from 5th, 35th, 36th CAA, 106th and 76th VDV

I missed that there was a shelling near Sulyhivka. I adjusted the RU area of control to north of the village. It remains contested. h/t @Time123On

Extremely interesting high res images from the Dar'ivka-Kherson area.

https://twitter.com/ArtisanalAPT/status/1553129353919217664

Image showing the ferry landing on the right bank of the Dnipro river in Kherson.
No idea what she is saying. t.me/voynareal/29737

UA Operational Command south confirms train traffic over the Dnipro sized to exist, and so shall Russia.
facebook.com/okPivden/posts…