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Jul 29 • 7 tweets • 4 min read
Have updated my 2022 election analysis:

- Dems have momentum now, generic moving, Biden approval up 4 points

- Senate now leaning Dem, chance of Dems keeping House rising

- Rs underperforming across US, landscape likely to get worse for Rs

More 👇 1/
ndn.org/competitive-el…
Sat down with @jonathanalter for a really interesting discussion about the 2022 elections and the current state of our politics. Check it out. Was a great conversation. 2/

Also spent some time with @AuthorKimberley for her really terrific #StartMeUp podcast.

Appreciate her optimism and can do spirit. Give a listen. 3/

In the last 42 years Dems have only had full control of DC for 6 of those years.

Imagine if we can win these midterms and get another 2 years of full control.

Think of the good we can do, the progress we can make.

Fired up, ready to go!!!!! 4/

Sat back down with my dear friend the great @JoeTrippi for our 3rd conversation in the past year about the 2022 elections and national politics.

Joe and I agree this election is likely to be far far better for Dems than many believed.

Do listen!

This new piece by @nicolenarea in @voxdotcom about the new, bluer 2022 election is very much worth a read. 6/

Unrelenting torrent of shitty GOP polling continues.

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More from @SimonWDC

Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
Jul 30
Hard to overstate how wrong the red wave take was.

Look at the Senate races. Fetterman, Warnock, Kelly, Cortez Masto, Hassan all have public polls at 49/50.

There are polls w/Rubio, Abbott, Kemp, Grassley in the 40s, and Johnson, Vance, Oz, Walker are in low to mid 40s. 1/
There is - literally - no evidence of a red wave anywhere. Any objective look at public polling right now shows the landscape favoring Dems, w/GOPers underperforming everywhere, struggling to raise money.

Strong D performance in NE special mattered. 2/

apnews.com/article/2022-m…
Analysts overly discounted what an extremist mess GOP has become. Think this discussion is instructive but not quite right - it's not just abt hard primaries. It's going to be hard for any GOPer to unite traditional Rs w/MAGA. R thing is so ugly rn. 3/

Read 10 tweets
Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
Jul 29
The economy has grown 3.4 times faster under Joe Biden than it did under Donald Trump.

Of the 45m jobs created in America since 1989 43m - 96% - have been created under Democratic Presidents.

Under the last 3 GOP Presidents the economy created 10,000 jobs a month.

Under Biden it has been over 500,000.

Read 5 tweets
Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
Jul 28
GDP growth scorecard, by recent Presidencies.

Economy has grown almost twice as fast under Biden as it did under the last GOP Presidents. 1/
Republicans have no real standing to criticize Biden on the economy.

Their last 3 Presidents have brought recession, exploding deficits and clear economic decline - its among the worst run of economic performances in US history. 2/

No American political party in modern times has talked down America, cheered for its failure, betrayed its interests as Republicans have in recent years.

They've been overtaken by extremism & cannot be taken seriously any longer on things that matter. 3/

Read 4 tweets
Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
Jul 28
It really is the most MAGA thing ever - fact/data free, illiberal - for GOPers to believe they get to determine whether the US is in a recession rather than the process the US govt has used for yrs.

And when it's as clear as day we aren't in a recession.
There is a govt process for determining whether we are in a recession and we all should follow what it says.

There is no debate here, and the media should not bothsides this one.

GOP has no standing to challenge the US government process.

Finally, why in the world would a party so clearly contemptuous of govt institutions, with a horrific recent economic track record, one that lies all the time ever be given the chance to turn this into a debate?

They simply don't have standing here.

Read 5 tweets
Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
Jul 27
New report from @MorningConsult shows big swing of indies to Democrats. Was -3 for Dems in May. Now +8.
It's a new, bluer election now. 1/
A fourth GOP poll is now out (Winning the Issues) showing a big Dem generic lead, 47-41. Via @FiveThirtyEight.

These 4 GOP polls have Dem leads of 3,4,5 and 6 pts.

Winning The Issues May survey had it 44-45. That's a 7 point shift toward Dems. 2/

@FiveThirtyEight In our updated 2022 election analysis we find:

- race shifting 4-5 pts towards Dems, 2.4 Dem generic lead

- widespread GOP underperformance, fundraising troubles

- Senate leaning Dem, chances of keeping House rising

- Anti-MAGA majority has awakened 3/
ndn.org/competitive-el…
Read 4 tweets
Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
Jul 26
Signs we aren't in a recession:

Job growth remains robust even at full employment
New business formation remains at record levels
Twice as many open jobs as unemployed people
Wage growth remains strong

It's a strong, dynamic economy, not one in decline.

And a reminder that it is the policy of the US government now to slow the economy down. We've never had this much job growth with the unemployment rate so low.

We had to slow the economy down. Slowing it down is a policy success now, not a failure.

When Biden took office we were in economic, public health and political crises. It was a deeply unsteady moment, and Biden did the right thing by going big w/the ARP. Economy recovered faster than many thought it could. Put the moment of crisis behind us. That is a good thing!
Read 4 tweets

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