Polls are nice. Votes are nicer. #VoteBlue2022
“As was the case when we launched the forecast a month ago, the Deluxe version of FiveThirtyEight’s midterm model still rates the battle for control of the Senate as a ‘toss-up.’
“As was the case when we launched the forecast a month ago, the Deluxe version of FiveThirtyEight’s midterm model still rates the battle for control of the Senate as a ‘toss-up.’
“But within that category there’s been modest, but consistent movement toward Democrats. Their chances of winning the Senate now stand at 55%. That’s up from 47% from forecast launch on June 30. It’s also up from 40% in a retroactive forecast dated back to June 1.
“This is matched by Democrats’ improved position on the generic congressional ballot, which asks voters which party they would support in a congressional election.
“Democrats are now essentially tied with Republicans in our generic ballot polling average, after having trailed by 2 to 3 percentage points over most of the late spring and early summer.” fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-p…
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