Thread by @PhillipsPOBrien

The Ukrainians fighting in a way that the Pentagon wants to 'study', the most important point in an briefing from a Pentagon official yesterday. The difference between the two sides in terms of smarts and strategy is growing. Here is the whole transcript.defense.gov/News/Transcrip…

In this evaluation of the situation in the Donbas, all of which is interesting, the end of the first paragraph stands out from an analytic perspective. They are so impressed by the Ukrainian staged withdrawal from Severodonetsk, that is deserves 'study'

Indeed the overall evaluation in the region is that the Ukrainians know what they are doing, the point about 'finding and killing' Russian command and control is high praise coming from the Pentagon, as that is a key element of US strategy.

Also very damning of Russian behavior. They are paying a 'gigantic' cost for a few miles of ground. This is ultimately because the growing gap between the armies is not just the new Ukrainian ranged systems, Russian soldiers are increasingly poorly trained and motivated.

This description of the new soldiers that Putin is generating sums up the Russian problem. In one hand Putin has done better in getting more troops into the field without a full mobilization than expected. However the training of those troops is deficient.

Basically the gigantic Russian losses are forcing Putin to rush unprepared troops to the front to keep going. The official says this is going to be problem for the Russians in Kherson. Gigantic (there is that word again) Russian losses mean they have unprepared troops there.

The last answer is also refreshing because the Pentagon is admitting that they got this war wrong at the start. They believed the big, strong Russian narrative and it was wrong. No mealy mouthed attempts to explain their failure or blame the Russians. They just got it wrong.

There is more there that I will talk about in the Sunday update. But think this point about the growing professional gulf between the two armies is worth discussing. We talk about the Ukrainians having a qualitative edge with newer systems such as HIMARS...

but they also have a growing intellectual edge. They're fighting smarter and the Russians are less so with unprepared forces. People accuse me of being 'optimistic' about the Ukrainians and that irritates me. I dont think Im being optimistic when I say they can win.