Thread by @noclador

Olenivka POW massacre thread 🧵:

1) it wasn't a GMLRS rocket
2) it was a thermobaric weapon
3) russia staged it and did so (as usual) incompetently

Firstly: keeping POWs so close to the front violates Article 19 of the Third Geneva Convention making it a war crime.

1/n

Secondly: Olenivka is about 15 km from the frontline. Striking a target so close to the front with sparse and expensive long-range GMLRS rockets, when one could use 105 mm artillery rounds that cost around 0.4% of a GMLRS rocket makes no sense.

2/n

Thirdly: Olenivka has been a well known DNR POW and concentration camp for years (and a penal colony for decades). So much so that the wives of the POWs knew about it. One needs to be a delusional russian troll or propagandist to believe Ukraine would strike this target.

3/n

In short: russia staged it. russia never wanted to return the Azovstal defenders to Ukraine, where they would receive a hero's welcome. Executing them would result in war crime charges and endanger russian POWs in Ukrainian hands.
At the same time HIMARS gave Ukrainians hope,
4/n

so russia decided to stage the murder of the POWs as if a GMLRS rocket had killed them to dampen the Ukrainians' joy at HIMARS.
The russians did the same with CAESAR: shell Donetsk city, then blame it on CAESAR by presenting russian artillery fired 152 mm shell fragments.

5/n

But, like in Donetsk, the russians stages the "rocket attack" incompetently, because none of them knows how a GMLRS works.

This is the building that was hit in Olenivka. It's made from concrete bricks with a thin tin roof... and it still stands (!!).

6/n

Thanks to russia I can show you what a GMLRS missile does when it hits a building: walls blown out, concrete ceilings shattered, rebars ripped apart, everything smashed and thrown around, and no fire damage (!).

7/n

If we compare a real GMLRS impact to the staged one in Olenivka - there the explosion was so weak the beds didn't even move an inch, not a single brick was blown out, the steel pillar is undamaged, but there is massive fire damage.

BUT

8/n

But the ultimate proof that this was not a GMLRS rocket is the lack of an impact crater. This photo shows a GMLRS impact crater. At Olenivka - none.

GMLRS M31 rockets hit a target at a 90 degree angle with Mach 4+ to smash through roofs and detonate inside (and also

9/n

to smash the secret guidance system, GPS components, and sensors at the tip of the missile). The tin roof of the building in Olenivka is too weak to smash in and trigger a GMLRS rocket, therefore there would have to be an impact/detonation crater in the middle of the room,

10/n

if a GMLRS rocket had struck. There isn't.

Also M31 GMLRS rockets contain 51 lb of PBX-109, a mix of 64% RDX and 20% Aluminium and 16% HTPB/IPDI plastic fillers. The Aluminium is used to increase blast effects, but it is not a thermobaric weapon that burns a target out.

11/n

If a GMLRS rocket had struck Olenivka there wouldn't be any burned bodies inside... the blast would have ripped everyone apart, not burned them alive.
A thermobaric weapon burns victims, while leaving bodies intact.

12/n

Olenivka was NOT hit by a GMLRS rocket.
russia used thermobaric a weapon to burn the POWs in their sleep. The fire damage to building and victims, and the missing impact crater and the lack of blast damage proves this.
This was premeditated murder, just like at Katyn.

13/n

I was asked what my theory of events is: likely the russians locked the doors, fired RPO-A Shmel or MRO-A thermobaric munitions inside through the windows, then waited until everyone was dead.

Both of these weapons have been in the arsenal of the DNR since 2014 (left pic).
14/.

Another possibility is the use of a RPO-Z Shmel incendiary rocket, which creates a 1,000°C hot fireball inside a building... but no matter which Shmel variant was used - the russians murdered 50+ Ukrainian POWs in cold blood then tried to blame the US and Ukraine for it.