Thread by @planet4589

Good morning from Boston. The CZ-5B Y3 rocket stage is approaching reentry; new Aerospace Corp and US Space Force estimates narrow the reentry window to two hours and @Marco_Langbroek's estimate overlaps but is slightly longer.

@Marco_Langbroek I am going to use the @AerospaceCorp estimate for now, which predicts reentry between 1615 and 1815 UTC. This reentry window opens in three hours from now.

@Marco_Langbroek @AerospaceCorp Here is the updated decay plot showing the narrow predicted reentry windows (the @EU_SST one has not been updated since yesterday)

@Marco_Langbroek @AerospaceCorp @EU_SST With this narrower reentry window we can really start to say something about where it might come down. Let's go through the ground track during the reentry window.

@Marco_Langbroek @AerospaceCorp @EU_SST As the window opens around 1615 UTC the rocket stage is heading southeast over Brazil and then over the Atlantic Ocean to a point south of Cape Town

@Marco_Langbroek @AerospaceCorp @EU_SST From 1630 to 1650 UTC the rocket stage orbits over the Indian Ocean, reaching Sumatra at 1650 UTC and Borneo at 1653 UTC

@Marco_Langbroek @AerospaceCorp @EU_SST After passing over Naga in the Phillipines at 1656 UTC, the stage heads over the Pacific Ocean, taking half an hour to cross that huge expanse

@Marco_Langbroek @AerospaceCorp @EU_SST The path grazes Baja California at 1726 UTC, Jalisco (Mexico) at 1728 UTC, passes over Guayaquil, Ecuador at 1736 UTC, northern Peru, Santa Cruz in Bolivia (1742 UC), Paraguay, Parana in Brazil, before heading out over the Atlantic again at 1746 UTC

@Marco_Langbroek @AerospaceCorp @EU_SST Finally it passes S of S Africa again at 1753 UTC and then back out over the Indian Ocean at the close of the window.