What @JeffSnider_AIP talks about here is this period I think

I dont have a model yet like he does for EU$ curve.
πŸ§΅πŸ‘‡
as oil dropped stonks++
oil dropped 10% stonks went up 9%
as stonks recovered and more importantly, as gas prices went down, consumer sentiment recovered
BUT inflation never went down.
Your rent doubled?
Thats the new reality
Now comparing today to past recessions
2008 vs now
Dotcom bust 2001 to now
Black monday oct 1997
Could the market be getting false signals due to Japan buying all those bonds?

When japan buys bonds USDJPY--(gets stronger) making the dollar weaker. Because USDJPY is part of "the formula" it makes stonks moon

And you can see it on this chart - usdjpy-- (buy bonds)

This '08
green (dxy) gets weaker
stonks rip higher

There is a REASON japan is buying all these bonds.
And that REASON is happening now
Notice yellow is going down at same time red(qqq) is going UP

You might not like to hear this, but the smartest people in the room? Japanesa.
Here ive invrted USDJPY and DXY
qqq (red) not inverted

when u c it...

Stonks are rising BECAUSE JPY buying bonds& USDJPY is STRENGTHENING (by default DXY--) lifts risk asset prices.

Can they keep doing this?
yip.

Why are they doing this?
Rocks ahead

c 2008 chart.
#repeat?
πŸ‘€
2008 vs now again.
This time ive included usdjpy
USDJPY-- (yellow, inverted) makes dollar (green) go UP
The market reads a weak dollar as rally signal
Notice that oil fell 20% in 2008 - same as stonks

But now? oil fell 9%. HALF as stonks.

So what gives? Inflation (oil) remains elevated.
Biden is STILL sucking the SPR dry. Oil imports are DECLINING.

Inflation isnt "fixed".

But stonks are rallying thinking no more hikes?
And that might be true, but inflation didnt come down fully. Stonk rally is predominently currency arb bc usd got weaker vs usdjpy.

I also think japan is going to keep buying bonds to replace all the bonds they sold previously over the past 330 days.
So dxy will prolly go lower, which is inflationary. As oil-- dxy-- stonk++ then add in japan bond buying dxy-- more.

Do stonks rally back to near all time highs on shitty earnings and no forward guidance?

Prolly.

Cause now japan a buyer not a seller and they move markets.

β€’ β€’ β€’

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More from @frankoz95967943

Apr 23
Its wednesday.

Lets break your brain again.

This is a currency thread.
πŸ§΅πŸ‘‡
This is complex, so clear your mind, get some coffee and relax.

You are in charge of a country call it "MyCountry" with a currency called "Denaro's"

In the past you invested heavily to build your factories and vities to make things as efficient (read low cost) as possible.
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Apr 21
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You benefit from my knowledge as I share what I have learned.

This is more of that.

This is a currency thread.
πŸ‘‡πŸ§΅


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Apr 19
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I wonder who that could be?"

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Life right now sucks.
πŸ§΅πŸ‘‡ Image
if you are a europee and you wanna go vacation?

The world is your oyster....especially asia.

You can buy a LOT in asia.

Currencies are pairs, or ratios.

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You get nearly 30000 vnd for 1 of your europees.Image
Image
But i wonder "who the fuck dumped EUR debt to do this". Either the ECB bought back debt (they cant) or someone international said "Fuck this im out"

Something happened March 4th that spooked the EU bond market.

Probably rate cuts. Image
Read 10 tweets
Apr 18
This is the vix.

πŸ‘‡πŸ§΅ Image
The vix is a MAJOR component of the EU$ system.

This is the formula for the EU$.

I have to invert the vix for you to see the correlation clearly.

(FX:USDJPY-1/CAPITALCOM:OIL_CRUDE*2)/FX_IDC:USDGBP/(FX_IDC:USDEUR*0.576)/(TVC:VIX*0.000001)/24000000 Image
The EU$ is made up of oil, interest rates, currencies and volatility.

Every single component of the EU$ is actively managed by central banks.

Here is the vix, vs SPY, vs the formula (green)

2nd chart zoomed in.

My EU$ formula models the market with greater than an r2 of .96 Image
Image
Read 36 tweets
Apr 18
The US is going to ban Chinese ADR's.
Its coming.

Trump needs more leverage, and this will be part of that leverage.

In prior administration he already started the process...he's going to cut china off from US capital markets completely.
πŸ§΅πŸ‘‡ Image
What the hell is an adr?
sec.gov/investor/alert…
You can easily find them in finviz.com
just go to filter and select ADR

finviz.com/screener.ashx?… Image
Read 27 tweets
Apr 14
This is a currency/trade/capital flows thread.

Stay with me - you will like this, but its complex....

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DNA is like the instruction manual for building that castle. It tells your body how to grow and what it should look like. It's like a super long, twisty ladder inside tiny parts of you called cells.
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Read 19 tweets

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