What @JeffSnider_AIP talks about here is this period I think

I dont have a model yet like he does for EU$ curve.
πŸ§΅πŸ‘‡
as oil dropped stonks++
oil dropped 10% stonks went up 9%
as stonks recovered and more importantly, as gas prices went down, consumer sentiment recovered
BUT inflation never went down.
Your rent doubled?
Thats the new reality
Now comparing today to past recessions
2008 vs now
Dotcom bust 2001 to now
Black monday oct 1997
Could the market be getting false signals due to Japan buying all those bonds?

When japan buys bonds USDJPY--(gets stronger) making the dollar weaker. Because USDJPY is part of "the formula" it makes stonks moon

And you can see it on this chart - usdjpy-- (buy bonds)

This '08
green (dxy) gets weaker
stonks rip higher

There is a REASON japan is buying all these bonds.
And that REASON is happening now
Notice yellow is going down at same time red(qqq) is going UP

You might not like to hear this, but the smartest people in the room? Japanesa.
Here ive invrted USDJPY and DXY
qqq (red) not inverted

when u c it...

Stonks are rising BECAUSE JPY buying bonds& USDJPY is STRENGTHENING (by default DXY--) lifts risk asset prices.

Can they keep doing this?
yip.

Why are they doing this?
Rocks ahead

c 2008 chart.
#repeat?
πŸ‘€
2008 vs now again.
This time ive included usdjpy
USDJPY-- (yellow, inverted) makes dollar (green) go UP
The market reads a weak dollar as rally signal
Notice that oil fell 20% in 2008 - same as stonks

But now? oil fell 9%. HALF as stonks.

So what gives? Inflation (oil) remains elevated.
Biden is STILL sucking the SPR dry. Oil imports are DECLINING.

Inflation isnt "fixed".

But stonks are rallying thinking no more hikes?
And that might be true, but inflation didnt come down fully. Stonk rally is predominently currency arb bc usd got weaker vs usdjpy.

I also think japan is going to keep buying bonds to replace all the bonds they sold previously over the past 330 days.
So dxy will prolly go lower, which is inflationary. As oil-- dxy-- stonk++ then add in japan bond buying dxy-- more.

Do stonks rally back to near all time highs on shitty earnings and no forward guidance?

Prolly.

Cause now japan a buyer not a seller and they move markets.

β€’ β€’ β€’

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More from @frankoz95967943

Jun 26
This is beef.

Since covid its up nearly 175%

Many of you eat hamburger and madonnas.

This is why madonna's is no longer affordable.
πŸ‘‡πŸ§΅ Image
Here is mcdonna's vs beef

"Oz - they didnt collapse with beef going up??!"

correct.

And there's raisons.... Image
Enter currencies - zimbabwe'ing the currency has implications for the underlying

when u c it Image
Read 15 tweets
Jun 25
The Final Reckoning - A Nation Consumes Itself
πŸ§΅πŸ‘‡

I study the vix, geopolitics and currencies - trying to make sense of what is actually happening in the context of sound bites we get here or there from government.

Its hard to paint an actual picture from a single sound bite or news article.

But when you put them all together you paint a tapestry - some call it a masterpiece - others call it a dystopian hellscape.

For each point I will try to include a relevant news topic.

Lets begin.
The U.S. is not just struggling; it's in a death spiral.

Driven by hyperinflation & desperation, the government is making choices that solidify its descent into kleptocracy and civil breakdown.

Here’s the terrifying truth that is unfolding
Crypto: Not Innovation, But Capitulation.

The government, facing a worthless dollar, is now frantically trying to contain crypto by regulating it into the banking system.

This isn't forward-thinking; it's a desperate attempt to co-opt the flight from fiat before total loss of control.

Its an admission the dollar is no longer a store of value which is pretty damning for a government to turn against its own currency like this.

#DeDollarization #CryptoControl

abcnews.go.com/Business/geniu…
Read 35 tweets
Jun 17
Lets build.

This is my calculated vix.
The higher it goes the higher the vix should be.

πŸ‘‡πŸ§΅ Image
It is a function of bond yields.
Bond yields SLOW the markets down.
Its MORE expensive to borrow

The west runs on finance- price of debt (the yield) matters a lot, just like it matters to you when you buy a car a house or put chipotle on credit. Image
Zoomed in on right side Image
Read 42 tweets
Jun 17
A while back i calculated what the vix SHOULD be based on yields.

(1) you can see clear correlation
(2) it broke but the peaks still match
πŸ§΅πŸ‘‡ Image
The vix is a function of bond yields. Image
Read 9 tweets
May 5
Currency fiddling.
Pegs.
Making your currency artificially weaker -

This is all great when you are attempting to game the system.

Until one day it blows up in your face.

πŸ‘‡πŸ§΅ Image
I have an open quiz, go ahead and take it before moving forward - cause its important to understand the game....
So what happened to TWD?

well, the game is "make our currency weaker so we can export more"

This has been going on a long time - they arent the only ones doing this.
Read 48 tweets
Apr 23
Its wednesday.

Lets break your brain again.

This is a currency thread.
πŸ§΅πŸ‘‡
This is complex, so clear your mind, get some coffee and relax.

You are in charge of a country call it "MyCountry" with a currency called "Denaro's"

In the past you invested heavily to build your factories and vities to make things as efficient (read low cost) as possible.
Now you want to increase trade.

What do you do?

You weaken your currency - now, your products compared to the world are cheaper than anywhere else.

Your orders explode.
Read 59 tweets

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