What @JeffSnider_AIP talks about here is this period I think
I dont have a model yet like he does for EU$ curve.
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as oil dropped stonks++
oil dropped 10% stonks went up 9%
as stonks recovered and more importantly, as gas prices went down, consumer sentiment recovered
BUT inflation never went down.
Your rent doubled?
Thats the new reality
Now comparing today to past recessions
2008 vs now
The Final Reckoning - A Nation Consumes Itself
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I study the vix, geopolitics and currencies - trying to make sense of what is actually happening in the context of sound bites we get here or there from government.
Its hard to paint an actual picture from a single sound bite or news article.
But when you put them all together you paint a tapestry - some call it a masterpiece - others call it a dystopian hellscape.
For each point I will try to include a relevant news topic.
Lets begin.
The U.S. is not just struggling; it's in a death spiral.
Driven by hyperinflation & desperation, the government is making choices that solidify its descent into kleptocracy and civil breakdown.
Hereβs the terrifying truth that is unfolding
Crypto: Not Innovation, But Capitulation.
The government, facing a worthless dollar, is now frantically trying to contain crypto by regulating it into the banking system.
This isn't forward-thinking; it's a desperate attempt to co-opt the flight from fiat before total loss of control.
Its an admission the dollar is no longer a store of value which is pretty damning for a government to turn against its own currency like this.