This green line is called "the formula"

It tracks the stonk with near perfection.

The math....
(FX:USDJPY-1/CAPITALCOM:OIL_CRUDE*2)/FX_IDC:USDGBP/(FX_IDC:USDEUR*0.576)/(TVC:VIX*0.000001)/24000000

👇🧵 It is also known as the EU$ or the "euro dollar" and sometimes you will see it as s$.

It is made up of japanesea yen (red)
2nd chart zoomed in

The US is hell bent on destroying the dollar.

I got curious why US would extend a swap line to a shit country that has failed to repay its debts.

For context here is the weekly view of USDARS

Up on this chart is massive inflation for the locals.

The currency is worthless
👇🧵 China said no more

I look at the market upside down from you, but today i'll make an exception.

This is OVX - its oil volatility.

OVX and VIX are positively correlated.

On this chart? Ovx is rising (going down).
👇🧵 OVX and SPY are negatively correlated.

If you are a bull you want the yellow line to go up

This is beef.

Since covid its up nearly 175%

Many of you eat hamburger and madonnas.

This is why madonna's is no longer affordable.
👇🧵 Here is mcdonna's vs beef

"Oz - they didnt collapse with beef going up??!"

correct.

And there's raisons....

The Final Reckoning - A Nation Consumes Itself
🧵👇

I study the vix, geopolitics and currencies - trying to make sense of what is actually happening in the context of sound bites we get here or there from government.

Its hard to paint an actual picture from a single sound bite or news article.

But when you put them all together you paint a tapestry - some call it a masterpiece - others call it a dystopian hellscape.

For each point I will try to include a relevant news topic.

Lets begin. The U.S. is not just struggling; it's in a death spiral.

Driven by hyperinflation & desperation, the government is making choices that solidify its descent into kleptocracy and civil breakdown.

Here’s the terrifying truth that is unfolding

Lets build.

This is my calculated vix.
The higher it goes the higher the vix should be.

👇🧵 It is a function of bond yields.
Bond yields SLOW the markets down.
Its MORE expensive to borrow

The west runs on finance- price of debt (the yield) matters a lot, just like it matters to you when you buy a car a house or put chipotle on credit.

A while back i calculated what the vix SHOULD be based on yields.

(1) you can see clear correlation
(2) it broke but the peaks still match
🧵👇 The vix is a function of bond yields.

Currency fiddling.
Pegs.
Making your currency artificially weaker -

This is all great when you are attempting to game the system.

Until one day it blows up in your face.

👇🧵 I have an open quiz, go ahead and take it before moving forward - cause its important to understand the game....

https://x.com/frankoz95967943/status/1919354525002952706

Its wednesday.

Lets break your brain again.

This is a currency thread.
🧵👇 This is complex, so clear your mind, get some coffee and relax.

You are in charge of a country call it "MyCountry" with a currency called "Denaro's"

In the past you invested heavily to build your factories and vities to make things as efficient (read low cost) as possible.

If i didnt leave america when i did I would have never understood the global trading system or currencies.

You benefit from my knowledge as I share what I have learned.

This is more of that.

This is a currency thread.
👇🧵

Globalization has been a disaster for the american worker.

Globalization has ONLY been enabled thru currency manipulation by US trading parterners to create an inequitable trading balance, which puts massive downward pressure on US wages and jobs.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/spee…

This one is good.

Its thought provoking, apocalyptic, but unless trends change its where we are headed.

I will open up comments later after all the bots are done sniping and this has aged a bit.

Lets begin.

👇🧵 Read these from left to right - the category is on the left, and its broken down by Foreign perspective and US domestic prospective.

It starts with where we are today.

So i was thinking - "man, the euro sure did change in value quite rapidly. EU cant afford to buy back that debt like that....this was an external state actor....

I wonder who that could be?"

To explain, if you earn USD and you live in EU?

Life right now sucks.
🧵👇 if you are a europee and you wanna go vacation?

The world is your oyster....especially asia.

You can buy a LOT in asia.

Currencies are pairs, or ratios.

2nd chart EURVND is inverted - again proving my oint, currencies are pairs.

You get nearly 30000 vnd for 1 of your europees.

This is the vix.

👇🧵 The vix is a MAJOR component of the EU$ system.

This is the formula for the EU$.

I have to invert the vix for you to see the correlation clearly.

(FX:USDJPY-1/CAPITALCOM:OIL_CRUDE*2)/FX_IDC:USDGBP/(FX_IDC:USDEUR*0.576)/(TVC:VIX*0.000001)/24000000

The US is going to ban Chinese ADR's.
Its coming.

Trump needs more leverage, and this will be part of that leverage.

In prior administration he already started the process...he's going to cut china off from US capital markets completely.
🧵👇 What the hell is an adr?
sec.gov/investor/alert…

This is a currency/trade/capital flows thread.

Stay with me - you will like this, but its complex....

Genomics is the study of DNA, and the RELATIONSHIPS (pay attn to that) of those genes and how they interact with each other.

👇🧵 DNA is like the instruction manual for building that castle. It tells your body how to grow and what it should look like. It's like a super long, twisty ladder inside tiny parts of you called cells.

There is a different way to look at the US that very people think about.

Namely, the flow of $$ from US out to the planet

When the world sends USA cheap goods, its not just deflationary,but its also massively beneficial to foreign asset h0dlrs.

This is a currency thread
🧵👇 So first of all, understand trade.
US prints money, lends it into existence in US.
People use that $$ and buy stuff, usually from abroad.

They send us cheap crap, we send them worthless pieces of paper.

Lets build.

This is the US02Y bond yield.

As yields on this debt instrument goes up?
The cost of borrowing goes up.

So when that green line goes up your credit card, variable mortgage, new car loan interest rate, student loan, all goes up.

The orange line is the SPR

🧵👇 the 2y going up is NOT bullish....but it can be FAKED to MAKE it bullish.

The US did 2 things:
a) print a FUCK ton of money to sell to the world to devalue its currency
b) fucked with the vix

here is b)

In a currency war, you win by out "devaluing" your currency vs your trading partner.

You do this to gain market advantage - your products become CHEAPER than your competitor, killing your competitors industry.

The white line is china - when the white line goes up (9 of them) china devalued.

Notice that giant plunge near #4?

Notice the yellow line - thats global liquidity - and its inverted - so you can clearly see central bank interventions and its impact on the chinese currency.

G7 loaded up on debt, and out china'ed china....

Lately they stopped - because inflation now is raging.
🧵👇 Remember - currencies are a RATIO.

So when chinas currency goes up on this chart - it gets WEAKER relative to USD.

Which means the USD gets STRONGER.

Stronger USD = bad for US exports, particularly to china.

It means China wins global trade vs US because everything is so cheap.

Lets build -this is a short one, but if you been following a while, you know my view that the vix has been sanitized thru currencies (and suppressed)

Here is tech stonk - ndx.

🧵👇 add uvix - now a 1:1000 instrument after all the reverse splits - used to suppress long dated vix premium.

Uvix was launched 3 years ago to this day, 1 month after the poot invaded ukraine.

I firmly believe its a war powers entity designed to protect the stonk market.

Lets build.

This is the vix.

I am drawing it mid page for a reason - and you will see why shortly.
🧵👇 This is dxy and the vix.

No, the dxy is NOT the dollar - dxy is a "basket of currencies" mostly made up of the euro-pee

2nd chart zoomed in - notice the drop in dxy is associated with drop in vix - so what happened?

Remember - central banks do not take losses.

Thru the wizardry of "legal accounting definitions" losses are called "deferred assets"



🧵👇 federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/2013… In 2011 the federal reserve began to be an activist / interventionist organization.

For the first time ever they started having some excesses and they would send "remittances" back to the US treasury.

Something happened during covid.....