Expound the profound Profile picture
Jul 30 โ€ข 14 tweets โ€ข 5 min read
What @JeffSnider_AIP talks about here is this period I think

I dont have a model yet like he does for EU$ curve.
๐Ÿงต๐Ÿ‘‡
as oil dropped stonks++
oil dropped 10% stonks went up 9%
as stonks recovered and more importantly, as gas prices went down, consumer sentiment recovered
BUT inflation never went down.
Your rent doubled?
Thats the new reality
Now comparing today to past recessions
2008 vs now
Dotcom bust 2001 to now
Black monday oct 1997
Could the market be getting false signals due to Japan buying all those bonds?

When japan buys bonds USDJPY--(gets stronger) making the dollar weaker. Because USDJPY is part of "the formula" it makes stonks moon

And you can see it on this chart - usdjpy-- (buy bonds)

This '08
green (dxy) gets weaker
stonks rip higher

There is a REASON japan is buying all these bonds.
And that REASON is happening now
Notice yellow is going down at same time red(qqq) is going UP

You might not like to hear this, but the smartest people in the room? Japanesa.
Here ive invrted USDJPY and DXY
qqq (red) not inverted

when u c it...

Stonks are rising BECAUSE JPY buying bonds& USDJPY is STRENGTHENING (by default DXY--) lifts risk asset prices.

Can they keep doing this?
yip.

Why are they doing this?
Rocks ahead

c 2008 chart.
#repeat?
๐Ÿ‘€
2008 vs now again.
This time ive included usdjpy
USDJPY-- (yellow, inverted) makes dollar (green) go UP
The market reads a weak dollar as rally signal
Notice that oil fell 20% in 2008 - same as stonks

But now? oil fell 9%. HALF as stonks.

So what gives? Inflation (oil) remains elevated.
Biden is STILL sucking the SPR dry. Oil imports are DECLINING.

Inflation isnt "fixed".

But stonks are rallying thinking no more hikes?
And that might be true, but inflation didnt come down fully. Stonk rally is predominently currency arb bc usd got weaker vs usdjpy.

I also think japan is going to keep buying bonds to replace all the bonds they sold previously over the past 330 days.
So dxy will prolly go lower, which is inflationary. As oil-- dxy-- stonk++ then add in japan bond buying dxy-- more.

Do stonks rally back to near all time highs on shitty earnings and no forward guidance?

Prolly.

Cause now japan a buyer not a seller and they move markets.

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More from @frankoz95967943

Jul 30
Since July 19th if you divide usdjpy by usdcad you get the vix.
Here is historically the other times this has happened.
vix is red.

Notice the vix activity in green boxes vs non-green boxes.

usdcad/usdjpy is green
Read 14 tweets
Jul 30
Having Canada hike 100bp and Fed hiking 75bp solves 4 problems:

a) suppresses the vix
b) suppresses oil spikes
c) lowers canadian inflation
d) crushes bears
Short of a major geopolitical event or an emergency intervention by western central banks I expect a stonk melt up/reflation

This was a well executed and well thought out maneuver by Central banks.
It also means a slow melt up in oil prices.

This can be contained by additional supply coming to market or bigger SPR releases.

The fed can also raise rates a little under the covers, but since July 22 the fed has chosen not to do that.
Read 5 tweets
Jul 29
USDJPY vs qqq vs calculated vix

When u c it...
what happened is japan went from selling bonds to buying them.

both us treasury AND canadian

USDJPY gets stronger (its inverted chart) as it buys bonds.

ultimately in this process it weakens the dxy.

So now japan has a powerhouse of bonds to sell to push dxy higher.
watch dxy very very carefully
as dxy++ stonks?

stonks--
Read 4 tweets
Jul 29
Todays thead is about trusting a narrative when the facts (and interventions) dont support it.
๐Ÿงต๐Ÿ‘‡
I am a permabear. I always have been. I got pummeled in 2008 financial crisis very very badly. That pissed me off and i didnt touch stonks for years after that.

I re-entered in 2020 when i saw omicron sweep across the world.

"Stonks will fall!"
And they did...for about 3h. Then the fed intervened.
Dropped bonds to zero which made currency very cheap.

When currency cheap, stonks explode higher (EXTREME inflation) Image
Read 27 tweets
Jul 28
japan buying canadian debt is a way to suppress the vix
japan becomes the curency arbitrator
messing in debt markets in usa and canada

typically usdcad is a proxy for vix
usdcad++ when canadian dollar gets strong (ie oil prices increase) or they raise bond yields
chk out cad Image
another perspective
while the blue line is above the green line vix appears to be restricted (see blue arrows) ImageImage
In 2 more days this will be the longest vix suppression of the year Image
Read 4 tweets
Jul 28
Literally a swap every single day now...

When was the last time swaps were used so heavy?
The gfc...

yesterdays move was a swap BACK

streamable.com/hgak4k Image
you might want to read this a little closer.

Debt payments are too high to pay - so the govt is going to have to do some really weird shit now to cover these payments to treasury hodlrs.

OR its gun have to massively increase the debt ceiling.
Read 21 tweets

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