This is gold.
It is inverted.
The lower the line goes the higher the price of gold in USD.

When it takes more USD to buy gold?
Thats a measure of inflation.

2nd chart zoomed out.
👇🧵

Here is USDJPY (the jPanesa) and US long bond yields.

Notice the striking correlations

On this chart - when the blue line goes up, bond yields go down. When the blue line goes down, bond yields go up.

The higher the blue line goes on this chart? The lower the bond yield. Lower bond yield = new car loans go down, credit card interest rates go down, etc.

Blue line going up = FRENCH TICKER

Its *STIMULATIVE*

Stonk loves when blue line go up.

because jPanesa own so much US debt, they can move bonds with ease. ESP so because the jAnet isnt selling as much long bond - this makes jPans job easier.

On September 11th there was a major economic event.
Core inflation went UP.

Normally this would mean that bond yields need to rise to get inflation to come down.

The same day the stonk market rallied over 1000pts.

Lets dig in and see what actually happened.
👇🧵 The prior evening to this major econ metric, jpan lowered US long bond yields. Notice the tight correlation to USDJPY.

jPanesa is just the eastern branch of the federal reserve.

This is the US central bank balance sheet.

I have inverted it.

And there is a REASON i inverted it - as this line goes up the jPow balance sheet goes down...

🧵👇 lets add gold
Gold is NOT inverted

As foreigners buy US debt?

It weakens the dollar....

Last week was historic (sorry - i had to start this thread over because the elong system flaked out)...

🧵👇 uvix experienced its single biggest volume in history

This is the US dollar.

US produces dollars, oil, pr0n, movies, weapons and global conflict. There is no culture other than worship of the super wealthy.

jPan controls the finances and jEws control the politiq.

The people can legally squabble online but their opinions dont really matter too much.

👇🧵 Last week global conflict exploded when Israels continued massicre of the Palestinian people continued with a targeted hit on a Hamas leader.
nytimes.com/2024/08/01/wor…

I am just a market plumber - i try to understand why the market does or does not flush.

Past couple days have been nuts, right?

Lets dig in....

This is the uvix.

it is 2x long long dated vix futures. On the open today it was up nearly 100%.

👇🧵 Sounds impressive, right?

Not really.
Lets zoom out....

Here's the same instrument zoomed way out.

The central planners have absolutely hammered uvix since it was created.

Long dated options premium has been decimated.
Holding any option in the future has been a losing bet.
And this is why.

Continuing....

Cutting rates now will weaken the USD vs basket of currencies.

It will also make US debt less competitive on the planet - im not so sure thats something the central planners want.

🧵👇

https://twitter.com/frankoz95967943/status/1817101688697741698

Lets look at some commodities thru the lens of the svix.

Starting with corn.

svix is inverted - ive covered this a few times....

Lets talk about this
🧵👇 The math:

(20-TVC:VIX)*(28-BATS:UUP)*(TVC:US30Y-TVC:US05Y)*100

This takes the vix, subtracts currency*liquidty (yield spread)

This is how the vix works - here are bond yields.

When the blue line goes up?

It means interest rates go up - you pay more to borrow money for a house, car, boat, etc

Notice these 3 spikes
👇🧵 Here is the vix overlay

see how the vix spikes right along with the spikes in interest rates?

Sudden moves in interest rates cause the vix to go nuts.

Lets talk about this.

In the context of trade - follow along - this is about stonk and geopolitics....

🧵👇 US is a net importer - they've been a net importer for decades.

This means US dollars have left america and gone overseas.

So what are these overseas countries going to do with them?

Lets talk about this.

I think its important, and I think there are MORE of these that are actively engaged in the stonk market -and the banks do not know what their risks are....

#ShadowBanking

👇🧵 Here is how this scam worked-

Executive summary - he used multiple banks to play market and juice stonk, pumping millions into a single stonk to pump it.

Spice thread.
Ive covered this a few times
Thngs are shifting....lets pull some stuff together.

This is the spice - texas tea, black gold....

🧵👇 This is the petro-yuan - spice priced in chinese yuan.
China has the shanghai exchange now

A quick analysis of whats going on in the stonk - pulled together.

first you must understand cross border capital flow.

👇🧵

https://x.com/frankoz95967943/status/1761368953103003963

next understand bond yields.

If interest rates go down economic activity expands.

If interest rates go up economic activity slows.

Think about your credit card - if interest rates are 0% you can spend without worry.

Interest rates at 20+%?
You might spend a little less....

Story time...
👇🧵 put on a tin foil hat for this one, tho when im done, you will find you dont need it....

Pre-market commentary
7/2/2024

lets build.

This is the svix.
🧵👇 this is usdjpy vs svix

A quick thread about reserve currency status.

.

Please take a minute and commit this to memory - its going to be important to you in later life.

And im gun explain right here why and how US is losing its grip.

🧵👇 investopedia.com/terms/r/reserv…
Digested and simplified - there are 2 critical components of reserve currency:

1) most trade is done in that reserve currency
2) most money is stored in that reserve currency

Right now, its the dollar.
And the store is US treasuries.

Pre-market commentary
6/28/2024

yesterday was a revelation.

so many things....its all starting to click.

I get it now.

🧵👇

https://x.com/frankoz95967943/status/1806492655268016294

Who is the #1 holder of US debt?
ticdata.treasury.gov/resource-cente…

This is the formula vs svix.

SVIX is a tool to crush commodities.
It has a happy side effect of lifting the stonk.

The lime line is "the formula" - the vix is an INCREDIBLY important part of the formula.

Its why i focus on the vix.

👇🧵 The @federalreserve seized control of the vix on 3/2022.

They could no longer "contain" oil thru interest rate hikes. And russia pulled a russia which would make the situation worse.

This also helped the fed attack the russian ruble.

Svix and uvix act as kryptonite to oil market futures pricing.

This is the russian ruble and their long 20y bond.

It is now paying 16% for 20y.

Russia is doing this to defend its currency (make it stronger).

The west does not want the russian ruble to get stronger because it can impact the price of oil.
🧵👇 key to this currency war is the euro - in orange.
Euro f's with their currency value vs the ruble to weaken the ruble.

This is the russian long bond.

It is now paying nearly 16% interest for 20 years.
👇🧵 This is the svix.
Notice in particular in this box, it went up nearly in lock step with russian long bond....

This is the vix.

The vix controls inflation &deflation in the stonk.

It also helps to control inflation in certain commodities (those that r produced domestically) where it stimulates inflation in commodities that r not produced domestically.

There r analogue measures for the vix.
👇🧵 lets start with the simple one - dxy, a basket of g7 currencies....

There has traditionally been a somewhat strong correlation btw dxy and the vix - that correlation was broken march 2022...see if you can see why....