This is a currency thread.

And for many of you, this will answer a LOT of questions....

I am going to start very slow and basic - by the time im done you will be a currency expert.

👇🧵

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supply_an… Lets explain this simply.

CocaCola.

CocaCola company produce lots of cocacola expecting holiday demand. They double production.

And lets say the demand didnt materialize - economy bad, people lose jobs or whatever.

What happens to price of cocacola?

It goes down.

This is my cat.

This is a financial thread.

"Oz - then why are you leading with a picture of your cat?"

Cause her belief system is exactly like that of the USD and the US government - she thinks she is the center of the universe and everything revolves around her...

👇🧵 Oil going up in price is deflationary - if people are spending all their money on fuel, they arent buying anything else.

But US is an oil producer - the biggest oil producer on the planet right now actually....and everyone - especially europe - needs it.

As ya'll shop in the American capitalist system that's better than every other system, yet, can't seem to produce a reliable supply of eggs...and when they are available, they are hyper expensive...

It is 1USD = 25000 vnd.

Here's Vietnam and a few prices of other things:
🧵👇 Those eggs are $2 USD per dozen.

Tooth paste $2

A lot of people dont remember this or its implications...

👇🧵sidley.com/en/insights/ne… Because like any instrument, treasuries can be gamed....
reuters.com/business/finan…

Last night was interesting - the planners used the cover of trumps election to rebalance global currencies.

Here is the vix.
🧵👇 Heres foreign oil producing currencies - on this chart purple line going up?
It means foreign currencies got STRONGER.

But heres the deal - ya, they produce oil, but thats not the only trade that goes on.

And the g7 planners need to keep some level of parity to otther currencies

Another currency thread.

Say you own some sparkly.

If you go to the local market the sparkly has a known value.

Say the local value is 100 schmeckels.
🧵👇 But one day you decide to travel to country Zenoblob.

In Zenoblob that sparkly is HIGHLY desired.

You can break of just a tiny bit of the sparkly and with it you can exchange that tiny bit for the best restaurants, the best transportation, the best hotels and still have a lot of sparkly left over.

These are all g7 currencies.
The planners decided to weaken vs the price of oil.

Read another way? It means USD got stronger.

So EUR, JPY, CHF all got weaker vs USD.....

👇🧵 at the same time here they are vs Saud.
They are all weaker vs the Saudi oil currency too...

So weaker vs USD, and weaker vs Saudi

Lets talk about sdr's

(special drawing rights)

As of July 31, 2024, U.S. SDR Holdings were SDR 126.8 billion.

👇🧵 home.treasury.gov/system/files/2…
In July 2024, Treasury, through the ESF, purchased
SDR 400 million from Ukraine in exchange for approximately $530 million.

Note that this wasnt reported in any newspaper.
home.treasury.gov/system/files/2…

This is gold.
It is inverted.
The lower the line goes the higher the price of gold in USD.

When it takes more USD to buy gold?
Thats a measure of inflation.

2nd chart zoomed out.
👇🧵

Here is USDJPY (the jPanesa) and US long bond yields.

Notice the striking correlations

On this chart - when the blue line goes up, bond yields go down. When the blue line goes down, bond yields go up.

The higher the blue line goes on this chart? The lower the bond yield. Lower bond yield = new car loans go down, credit card interest rates go down, etc.

Blue line going up = FRENCH TICKER

Its *STIMULATIVE*

Stonk loves when blue line go up.

because jPanesa own so much US debt, they can move bonds with ease. ESP so because the jAnet isnt selling as much long bond - this makes jPans job easier.

On September 11th there was a major economic event.
Core inflation went UP.

Normally this would mean that bond yields need to rise to get inflation to come down.

The same day the stonk market rallied over 1000pts.

Lets dig in and see what actually happened.
👇🧵 The prior evening to this major econ metric, jpan lowered US long bond yields. Notice the tight correlation to USDJPY.

jPanesa is just the eastern branch of the federal reserve.

This is the US central bank balance sheet.

I have inverted it.

And there is a REASON i inverted it - as this line goes up the jPow balance sheet goes down...

🧵👇 lets add gold
Gold is NOT inverted

As foreigners buy US debt?

It weakens the dollar....

Last week was historic (sorry - i had to start this thread over because the elong system flaked out)...

🧵👇 uvix experienced its single biggest volume in history

This is the US dollar.

US produces dollars, oil, pr0n, movies, weapons and global conflict. There is no culture other than worship of the super wealthy.

jPan controls the finances and jEws control the politiq.

The people can legally squabble online but their opinions dont really matter too much.

👇🧵 Last week global conflict exploded when Israels continued massicre of the Palestinian people continued with a targeted hit on a Hamas leader.
nytimes.com/2024/08/01/wor…

I am just a market plumber - i try to understand why the market does or does not flush.

Past couple days have been nuts, right?

Lets dig in....

This is the uvix.

it is 2x long long dated vix futures. On the open today it was up nearly 100%.

👇🧵 Sounds impressive, right?

Not really.
Lets zoom out....

Here's the same instrument zoomed way out.

The central planners have absolutely hammered uvix since it was created.

Long dated options premium has been decimated.
Holding any option in the future has been a losing bet.
And this is why.

Continuing....

Cutting rates now will weaken the USD vs basket of currencies.

It will also make US debt less competitive on the planet - im not so sure thats something the central planners want.

🧵👇

https://twitter.com/frankoz95967943/status/1817101688697741698

Lets look at some commodities thru the lens of the svix.

Starting with corn.

svix is inverted - ive covered this a few times....

Lets talk about this
🧵👇 The math:

(20-TVC:VIX)*(28-BATS:UUP)*(TVC:US30Y-TVC:US05Y)*100

This takes the vix, subtracts currency*liquidty (yield spread)

This is how the vix works - here are bond yields.

When the blue line goes up?

It means interest rates go up - you pay more to borrow money for a house, car, boat, etc

Notice these 3 spikes
👇🧵 Here is the vix overlay

see how the vix spikes right along with the spikes in interest rates?

Sudden moves in interest rates cause the vix to go nuts.

Lets talk about this.

In the context of trade - follow along - this is about stonk and geopolitics....

🧵👇 US is a net importer - they've been a net importer for decades.

This means US dollars have left america and gone overseas.

So what are these overseas countries going to do with them?

Lets talk about this.

I think its important, and I think there are MORE of these that are actively engaged in the stonk market -and the banks do not know what their risks are....

#ShadowBanking

👇🧵 Here is how this scam worked-

Executive summary - he used multiple banks to play market and juice stonk, pumping millions into a single stonk to pump it.

Spice thread.
Ive covered this a few times
Thngs are shifting....lets pull some stuff together.

This is the spice - texas tea, black gold....

🧵👇 This is the petro-yuan - spice priced in chinese yuan.
China has the shanghai exchange now

A quick analysis of whats going on in the stonk - pulled together.

first you must understand cross border capital flow.

👇🧵

https://x.com/frankoz95967943/status/1761368953103003963

next understand bond yields.

If interest rates go down economic activity expands.

If interest rates go up economic activity slows.

Think about your credit card - if interest rates are 0% you can spend without worry.

Interest rates at 20+%?
You might spend a little less....