Thread by @CougSutra

Here are my takeaways from yesterday about the @Pac12 and realignment prospects based on the various interviews conducted yesterday with @Kliavkoff . …—->

The first takeaway is fairly obvious: the #B1G is running the show here. So, the future of the @Pac12 and @WSUCougars status as a Power 5 program follows whether the Big 10 decides to add schools when they finalize their tv deal next month.

As I have noted previously, I don’t think that the #B1G is going to expand beyond Notre Dame. The reason: they don’t need to. They’re already the second best conference &!the additions of the LA schools provide their member schools with ONE all expenses paid trip to LA each year

In other words, the Big10 got all of the tv markets and brands they needed to command the big bucks without sacrificing the experiences of the student athletes at all their member schools save the LA schools. So why would they expand??

So, when the Big10 finalizes their media deal, then the @Pac12 will get real busy. At that point, we are going to hear about expansion before we learn of actual TV numbers. Yesterday, @Kliavkoff laid out the criteria for expansion:

The criteria are:
1) Media Market
2) athletic Pedigree
3) Regional Proximity
4) Cultural/Institutional Fit

When these criteria are combined with the #BIG12 ‘s efforts to destabilize the @Pac12, @Kliavkoff ‘s expansion targets become pretty clear to me.

To begin, I have argued all along how much academic prestige matters to the @Pac12 presidents and member schools. And frankly, that prestige matters a great deal to schools who are NOT currently in the @Pac12. In short, just about every Big12 school would want to be in the Pac.

The question is whether @Kliavkoff wants to expand to 12 OR 14. I don’t think there is enough money out there to support 16 teams. But I think the conference knows that stability requires the addition of four new members. So, who will they be?

But we before we go there, it is important to note that the #UCLA situation is NOT entirely resolved. And while I think lost folks feel like there’s an 80% chance or better that they are gone, there is at least a 20% chance that they are gonna get blocked.

And so, as a side bar, I bet we’ll get a few leaks about what the @Pac12 ‘s media valuation is with UCLA still in the conference. My sense; it might be enough to force the Regents and the UC chancellor to take a stand. If they do, then San Diego State is 100% off the table.

If UCLA leaves—as expected—then San Diego State becomes the attractive nuisance. No way does @Stanford want to be affiliated academically with a CSU school. No way. So, their entry in the conference would be a major “hold your nose” move. But It may be a practical necessity.

From there, the remaining targets are going to come from the Big12. Bank on it. @Kliavkoff ‘s mention of athletic standing makes #UNLV a virtual non-starter. And his comments that the @Pac12 is going to retain a footprint in LA means that the big non-con games will be held there

So, I would all-but put my ageless/timeless head on a Guillotine in predicting that the Kansas and Houston will be the first two targets of @Kliavkoff. If they come on, that would bring the conference to 13, including the “additions” of UCLA OR SAN Diego state.

Which leaves space for 1 more. Iowa State fits but Des Moines has a smaller market share than Spokane—and Ames is smaller than DeMoines. Kansas State is interesting & would obviously have the support of @WSU_Cougar_Pres . But questions remain about market share and donor support

So for me, it comes down to either Texas Tech or Oklahoma State for the 14th member. Texas Tech figures to be formidable in the NIL age because of all that oil money. For that reason, I think I’d bet on them over Oklahoma State. But that’s obviously just a guess.

What that leaves us then is two 7 team divisions that resembles another P5 conference—the @ACC. This is how it could look…

PACIFIC

WSU
UW
Ore
OSU
Stan
CAL
UCLA/SDSU

MOUNTAIN

Texas Tech
COLORADO
UTAH
ARIZONA
ASU
HOUSTON
KANSAS

From there, @Kliavkoff noted yesterday that he talks with the Commissioner of the @ACC about twice a day and that “nothing is off the table.”

So, I am expecting the following arrangements per @johncanzanobft reporting for the last month..

1. There would be a @Pac12 / @ACC challenge each year in non-conference that would be played in select stadiums in LA and Charlotte/Miami each year in week 1 or 2

2. Both the @Pac12 & @ACC will hold conference championship games on Thanksgiving weekend

3. There would be a double or triple header on the weekend of conference championship games pitting the conference champions against each other as well as the runner ups.

If the playoff expands to 16, perhaps it’s a triple header.

All of they preserves ACC grants of rights, gives them more cash, expands the reach of both conferences—affording an escalator clause for both. I also expect a deal that would give @ESPN and either @AppleTV or @Amazon control over the @Pac12Network studios

The deal would go for 6 years and would be coupled with an allowance of @UW and @Oregon to get 50% of @CFBPlayoff money if they made it.

That’s what’s gonna happen according to my crystal Ball. I’m going to take a nap now because my fingers/thumbs are now awfully tired.

Let’s get ready for one helluva season and ride! #WAZZU #GoCougs