Don't want to sound alarmist, but IMO it's notable that at this time of US-China tension, 3 of China's largest/newest roll-on/roll-off civilian ferries appear to be off their normal routes and are in or have moved south toward the Taiwan Strait. All 3 are associated with the PLA.
The first of these ferries is the ZHONG HUA FU XING. Built in 2019, it's owned by the Bohai Ferry Group (as are all 3 ferries), which is organized as the 8th Transport Group of the PRC Maritime Militia. It was used to transport tanks in a 2021 exercise. taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4318076
@MarineTraffic AIS data shows that this ferry left the Bohai Gulf after a port visit to Tianjin (near where it loaded tanks in 2021) and is now transiting southbound toward the northern approaches to the Taiwan Strait. Its destination is Shantou, across the Strait from S Taiwan.
ZHONG HUA FU XING appears to normally operate on a route between Dalian and Yantai (across the Yellow Sea), so this is a significant departure from its normal operating pattern.
Next up: BO HAI MA ZHU, another large Bohai Ferry vessel, built in 2015. It appears to have also departed its normal route between Dalian and Yantai, and is now down at Qingdao. Its specific location at Qingdao is not the normal ferry landing, it looks like a commercial port.
The 3rd ferry of interest is BO HAI ZUAN ZHU, also operated by Bohai Ferry and built in 2015. It appears to have loaded in Tianjin & is now in the Strait, headed for Guangou—near Shantou on the southern end of the Strait. It also normally operates between Dalian and Yantai.
So, what does this all mean? First, I think it's highly likely that these ferries ARE engaged in some sort of operation for the PLA, as they're way off their normal routes at the same time. It could be part of a long-planned exercise, or perhaps a reaction to recent events. 🤷♂️
To be sure, these ferries alone cannot carry a large enough force to invade Taiwan itself, and the rest of China's ferries appear to be on their normal routes for now. But perhaps they could carry enough to assist in seizure of a smaller island. I guess we'll see...
Ok, a few more thoughts on some of the things we saw in this week’s PLA parade. I’ll start in the undersea domain, with this large UUV.
Going back and looking at the footage, you can see in this shot that it appears to have a couple of sonar arrays.
My guess is that those are a flank array and a bow array.
We can also see 4 masts/antennas: 3 appear to be retractable with a closure panel and one fixed on a short mast near the stern (see above).
Based on the number of sensors - sonar for acoustic detection, masts perhaps for EW/ESM, video, perhaps a snorkel for a diesel, I’m guessing this is an ISR UUV.
From this shot, it appears it has a 9-bladed propulsor.
China’s parade is about to get started. Xi is making a speech where he says China is a force for peace, development, etc. Anyway…time to roll those new missiles, UxVs, armored vehicles, etc.
(I’ll be posting any stuff that I see that’s particularly interesting. Here we go…)
Right now it’s just Xi driving by - wondering now if they’re going to roll this stuff past like in the past or if this is it?
Looks like some unmanned undersea and surface vessels (UUVs and USVs).
hooboy, that's a lot of doing things the wrong way...😬
I recall time there being significance attached to the "dropped two wts" message in the reporting at the time, as an indication they had a problem & needed to come up. Apparently completely normal.
In contrast, I recall no word that THEY HEARD A BANG FROM THE OCEAN SURFACE. 😬
In the "you can't make this stuff up" category, in this 16 Apr image of COMEC's Longxue shipyard in Guangzhou you can see 5 of China's new Shuiqiao-class "invasion barges", whose only apparent purpose is to invade Taiwan, as well as...
...based on AIS data, what also appears to be a container ship under construction for a TAIWANESE Company, Evergreen Lines.
(and a couple of Zubr-class assault hovercraft, PLA Navy auxiliaries, and more.)
A few interesting tidbits from INDOPACOM Commander Admiral Paparo's recent testimony. First, he puts China's warship production at a ratio of "6-to-1.8" to ours, or about 3.3 to 1.
This exceeds any of my estimates, which usually run a bit over 2-to-1 in hull count, and about 1.5-1 in tonnage.
Makes me wonder if there are PLAN ships I missed, or perhaps he's counting only surface combatants? Not sure.
On the topic of SLCM-N, he gives a full-throated endorsement. Of note, this is not the STRATCOM commander, but the theater commander that might actually need to use something like this (or have it to deter the other side's use of something similar).
Hot off the presses: I'm pleased to announce the release of this @ChinaMaritime Note covering China's new Shuiqiao landing barges, which I co-authored with Michael Dahm. I hope that folks find it a useful source of info on this important new development. digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cmsi-notes/14/
@ChinaMaritime Some highlights: first, our key takeaways.
@ChinaMaritime Next, we found patents for these or similar barges in filings from several years ago. In other words, this project has been in the works for a while now - not a reaction to the 2022 Pelosi visit, or the DPP's election win, etc. (not that I ever thought it was).