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Jul 30 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
【一周精选 BEST OF THE WEEK】

1/7 Growth Target 5.5% - Gone
“努力做到最好”
2/7 Buying Moutai Is Not Bullish
买茅台是“恶意做多”
3/7 Selling Bonds, Not Land
卖地不够，卖债来补
4/7 Three China Semi Chiefs Arrested After This Tweet
话音刚落，几位半导体电子产业大佬就进去了
5/7 Deny US Recession; Then Bet on Fed Pivot — Impeccable Logic.
一边否认美国衰退，一边赌美联储转向：逻辑感人。
6/7 USD in Secular Decline
美元的长期下行趋势
7/7 Tension in #TaiwanStrait; Epic Weakness in HK Market.
台海局势紧张，香港市场史诗级弱势
EXTRA 7+/7 Rescuing Chinese Property
救救中国房地产

• • •

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More from @HAOHONG_CFA

Hao HONG 洪灝, CFA Profile picture
Jul 18
1/N：为什么中国房地产这两年问题这么多？1987-2021，中国城镇人口从2.75亿到9亿，新增6.25亿人口 x 35-40平米/人=220-250亿平米；同期，中国商品房销售累计231亿平米。供给～=需求。

Why Chinese property in trouble: 1987-2021 urban pop +625m x 37sqm/p ~=230m sqm; home sales = 231m sqm
2/N：2021年 出生人数1062万，死亡人数1014，出生～=死亡。中国总人口或停止增长。这时，房地产供需成为了存量问题，开始考虑新增供给vs需求。

2021 new brith 10.62m, death 10.14m, pop growth stopped at ~14.1bn. Now, we can start to look at property incremental supply vs demand.
3/N: 住宅在建60亿平米/户均110平=5500万套房；城镇率从64增长到75%，新增城镇人口1.6亿/户均3人=5000万套。现所有在建完成后，城镇化目标基本实现。

Residential unfinished 6bn sqm/(110/HH)=55m units; urban% fr 64 - 75% =160m ppl/(3/unit)=50m units. Unfinished sqm = urbanization demand.
Read 5 tweets
Hao HONG 洪灝, CFA Profile picture
Jul 16
一周精选

1/7: 人民币影子汇率 vs 美元历史性强势。
Shadow CNY vs $USD epic strength.
2/7 人民币货币乘数 vs 日元历史性贬值
CNY monetary multiplier vs $JPY epic devaluation.

3/7 欧元破净 vs 中国劳动成本
$EUR breaking parity vs China ULC
Read 7 tweets
Hao HONG 洪灝, CFA Profile picture
Jul 8
1/7 每周好图精选：历史的洪流和分裂

人民币在850周期线交点。今年出口强，人民币却贬值 — 出人意料。

1/7 Best Charts of 7 Days: Epic divergence in historic torrents.

CNY at secular crossroad. Strong exports YTD, but weak $CNY - surprising.
2/7 人民币与金铜比预示全球增长放缓，风险上升。美国实时GDP预测-2.1%。美联储会议纪要担心加息负面影响或大于预期。美债期货开始预期明年降息。

2/7 $CNY & Gold/Copper hint at slowing global growth, heightened risk. GDPNow -2.1%, Fed hikes may impact negatively

3/7 增长预期放缓，美油战略储备大放送，石油跌破100。

3/7 Slower growth expectation, big strategic reserve release, oil crashed.
Read 7 tweets
Hao HONG 洪灝, CFA Profile picture
Jun 23
1/🧵Why US Labor Participation (LPR) so low? Look at its uncanny correlation with CNY. It gives a new perspective.

LPR peaked ~2001 when China entered WTO. As China ascended to a manufacturing superpower, US LPR fell in tandem, labor force shrank.

Did China steal US jobs?
2/🧵 Or we could say China “swapped out” US jobs. Ricardo thought countries gain by trading with respective comparative advantages.

But if U is at top of supply chain while C at bottom, U’s low-end jobs are permanently lost, while C supplies cheaper but not better products.
3/🧵 so as China grew, US low-end jobs lost but unemployable at high-end. LPR fell across age groups, but particularly in less educated, younger groups. Rising social costs.

Then China climbs up the supply chain & eventually competes with US. Hence trade war & Thucydides Trap.
Read 9 tweets
Hao HONG 洪灝, CFA Profile picture
Jun 19
1/🧵China income data reveal new reality of “Common Prosperity”:

- Of 1,400m people, 964m <¥2k/month ($300), 547m < ¥1k ($150), only 70m people pay tax at min taxable income ¥5k/month ($770);

- ¥18k p.a. (56th %) x 2.62 pp/Household = ¥47k/HH = $7,255/HH (4th % US HH income). 洪灝 @HaoHong_CFA: 中国人年收入统计
2/🧵 Only 0.7m/1.4bn population at 100th% income earning ¥240k p.a. ($37k) x 2.62pp/HH = $96.7k p.a./HH ~66% US HH income.

Consistent with CICC, NBS shows national income ¥35.1k/p.a. x 1.4bn ppl = ¥49tn, 45% of ¥110tn GDP - low globally.
3/🧵China home price ¥10k/sqm x living area 40sqm/pp x 2.62pp/HH = ¥1.05m/home. >2/3 Chinese work >25-30yrs to buy a home.

US average is ~5.4yrs. 1990 Japan property bubble was at 18yrs in Tokyo. China property value >¥400-¥500tn, 4.5xGDP.
Read 5 tweets
Hao HONG 洪灝, CFA Profile picture
May 25
On the All-hands National Video Conf to steady the economy: only marginal details over the state council meeting over the weekend, which was met by market plunge on Monday; 90bn trucks, 40bn micro loans, -140bn tax, 320bn social security delayed (1/N)
Rhetorics suggests some room for monetary maneuvering later. But recognition of policies in 2020 means no flooding the system for now. Mortgage rate already lower, property policy city-specific, but unlikely effective cos weak confidence & income. No surprise again.
As the market had a chance to plunge after the state council meeting, & news marginally positive from the videoconf, traders less likely downside-biased while waiting for more detailed policies to come through — still stuck.
Read 4 tweets

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