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Hao HONG 洪灝, CFA Profile picture
Hao HONG 洪灝, CFA
@HAOHONG_CFA
Economist of the Year - Asian Private Banker; FT Book of 2020; No.1 Strategist/Economist - AsiaMoney. “The man who called China’s boom & bust” - Bloomberg
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Aug 28, 2022 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
【一周精选 Best of the Week】

1/7）降息不等于涨
Rate cut, but market fell. 2/7）人民币跌破年内前低

CNY new low YTD.
Aug 21, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
1/N）系列推：中国房价下跌会引起金融危机吗？

2021底个人房贷¥38.3万亿，一年新增¥3.8万亿；商品房销售¥16万亿，房贷占约25%。调查显示：买房平均首付50%；二套房首付40-60%。房贷¥38.3万亿 vs 总房地产敞口¥62万亿。

因首付高，房价下跌*应该难直接*导致金融危机。 2/N）西南财大调查显示，中国家庭有房无贷的近50%，近20%有房有贷，30%租房。与大城市里住房拥有率>70%基本一致。

也就是说，20%有贷款的家庭，首付>50%，因此中国房贷并非次贷。同时，20%家庭～¥40万亿房贷/50%=¥80万亿房产值，中国住宅房产总值约¥400万亿，与之前估的¥400-500万亿总值一致。
Aug 20, 2022 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
【一周精选 Best of the Week】

1/7）青年失业率历史最高。大家都躺平了。
Youth unemployment worst in history. Everyone is lying flat. 2/7）央行意外降息，银行意外破位
PBOC cut rate unexpectedly, but bank broke support.
Aug 14, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
系列推：中国出口有多强？

1/N）最近很多人质疑中国出口的真实情况。在投资、消费、地方财政收入一片惨淡的情况下，出口一枝独秀，增速大超预期，顺差历史新高，并与PMI出口新订单萎缩的情况背离。

二季度GDP增长0.4%，出口拉动了1%。换而言之，没有出口，GDP就萎缩了。 2/N）在强劲出口拉动下，7月顺差历史新高1000亿美元，今年头七个月累计顺差4800亿美元，而去年全年才6800亿美元（取整）

然而，今年以来外汇储备减少了1200亿美元，外汇存款减少了700亿美元，共近2000亿美元。今年非美货币贬值>5%，但汇率变化不足以解释顺差和外汇积累的背离。
Aug 14, 2022 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
【一周精选 Best of the Week】

1/7）房价十年内第三次下跌
Property price declines for the 3rd time in 10 years. 2/7）中美修昔底德陷阱
US-China’s Thucydides Trap
Aug 6, 2022 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
【Best of the Week 一周精选】

1/7) A Shanghai Bubble Every 7 Years

上证每7年一个泡沫 2/7) July Econ Contraction; Consensus Shocked.

七月经济意外再度萎缩
Jul 30, 2022 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
【一周精选 BEST OF THE WEEK】

1/7 Growth Target 5.5% - Gone
“努力做到最好” 2/7 Buying Moutai Is Not Bullish
买茅台是“恶意做多”
Jul 18, 2022 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
1/N：为什么中国房地产这两年问题这么多？1987-2021，中国城镇人口从2.75亿到9亿，新增6.25亿人口 x 35-40平米/人=220-250亿平米；同期，中国商品房销售累计231亿平米。供给～=需求。

Why Chinese property in trouble: 1987-2021 urban pop +625m x 37sqm/p ~=230m sqm; home sales = 231m sqm 2/N：2021年 出生人数1062万，死亡人数1014，出生～=死亡。中国总人口或停止增长。这时，房地产供需成为了存量问题，开始考虑新增供给vs需求。

2021 new brith 10.62m, death 10.14m, pop growth stopped at ~14.1bn. Now, we can start to look at property incremental supply vs demand.
Jul 16, 2022 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
一周精选

1/7: 人民币影子汇率 vs 美元历史性强势。
Shadow CNY vs $USD epic strength. 2/7 人民币货币乘数 vs 日元历史性贬值
CNY monetary multiplier vs $JPY epic devaluation.

Jul 8, 2022 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
1/7 每周好图精选：历史的洪流和分裂

人民币在850周期线交点。今年出口强，人民币却贬值 — 出人意料。

1/7 Best Charts of 7 Days: Epic divergence in historic torrents.

CNY at secular crossroad. Strong exports YTD, but weak $CNY - surprising. 2/7 人民币与金铜比预示全球增长放缓，风险上升。美国实时GDP预测-2.1%。美联储会议纪要担心加息负面影响或大于预期。美债期货开始预期明年降息。

2/7 $CNY & Gold/Copper hint at slowing global growth, heightened risk. GDPNow -2.1%, Fed hikes may impact negatively

Jun 23, 2022 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
1/🧵Why US Labor Participation (LPR) so low? Look at its uncanny correlation with CNY. It gives a new perspective.

LPR peaked ~2001 when China entered WTO. As China ascended to a manufacturing superpower, US LPR fell in tandem, labor force shrank.

Did China steal US jobs? 2/🧵 Or we could say China “swapped out” US jobs. Ricardo thought countries gain by trading with respective comparative advantages.

But if U is at top of supply chain while C at bottom, U’s low-end jobs are permanently lost, while C supplies cheaper but not better products.
Jun 19, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
1/🧵China income data reveal new reality of “Common Prosperity”:

- Of 1,400m people, 964m <¥2k/month ($300), 547m < ¥1k ($150), only 70m people pay tax at min taxable income ¥5k/month ($770);

- ¥18k p.a. (56th %) x 2.62 pp/Household = ¥47k/HH = $7,255/HH (4th % US HH income). 洪灝 @HaoHong_CFA: 中国人年收入统计 2/🧵 Only 0.7m/1.4bn population at 100th% income earning ¥240k p.a. ($37k) x 2.62pp/HH = $96.7k p.a./HH ~66% US HH income.

Consistent with CICC, NBS shows national income ¥35.1k/p.a. x 1.4bn ppl = ¥49tn, 45% of ¥110tn GDP - low globally.
May 25, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
On the All-hands National Video Conf to steady the economy: only marginal details over the state council meeting over the weekend, which was met by market plunge on Monday; 90bn trucks, 40bn micro loans, -140bn tax, 320bn social security delayed (1/N) Rhetorics suggests some room for monetary maneuvering later. But recognition of policies in 2020 means no flooding the system for now. Mortgage rate already lower, property policy city-specific, but unlikely effective cos weak confidence & income. No surprise again.
May 25, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
稳住经济大盘会议感想：1）讨论了经济面临的下行压力，“努力确保二季度经济正增长”。特别提到五月克强指数运输量、贷款、用电量为负，失业率历史次高，超千万高校毕业生。08年GDP<3，但没有失业，现在情况不一样。“稳增长、稳就业、稳物价”，前两个目标面临挑战（1/N） 2）财政继续边际发力，主要通过退税2.64万亿 vs 政府工作报告2.5万亿。总理特别讨论了地方偷税漏税严重，导致“政策变形”；困难户社保推迟。经济差，税收也少了，二季度多地税收锐减一半，也导致了计算上货币供应增速上升的现象（2/N）
Mar 13, 2022 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
Forward points on HKD suggest longer term confidence on HK, despite near team pessimism. Today’s report “The aides of March”: researchreport.bocomgroup.com/Strategy-22031… Image Foreigners reducing Chinese treasury. Treasury’s leads on/offshore stocks buying by up to 3Q.The Russian central bank may be under sanction pressure to reduce its holdings. Today’s report “The aides of March”: researchreport.bocomgroup.com/Strategy-22031… Image
Mar 6, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Twin sessions set ambitious growth target, with implicit fiscal support. Money and credit will recover, but no surge. China’s macro leverage steady. At its current level, onshore market not a haven. Todays report: researchreport.bocomgroup.com/Strategy-22030… Image Every oil crisis followed by a U.S. recession. This time unlikely to be different. Today’s report: researchreport.bocomgroup.com/Strategy-22030… Image
Jan 24, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Hong Kong as secular inflection point. This secular trend line has witnessed episodes of outbreaks, crisis and collapsed. But Hong Kong has been progressing, unfettered. China’s current account peaks and troughs with A-shares. Onshore market has been rising for three years - first time in history. But now under pressure.