Thread by @PhillipsPOBrien

Sunday update in Ukraine, what seems to be happening when little is changing on the map. On the surface this week, like the last 4, has been one of an almost static warfare. Almost no change on the map in the Donbas or Kherson fronts (a village here or there, thats it).

In the wider Donbas front, using @TheStudyofWar maps from yesterday and July 5 (which is right after the well-planned Ukrainian pull out from Lysychansk that the Pentagon believes in an operation worth study, you see almost no difference.

This lack of movement has been at a large cost to the Russians (Pentagon says 'gigantic'--see below where I mention how Pentagon views campaign) and Russia shows little sign of generating the kind of sustained combat power to resume sustained atttack.

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1553274499403059200?s=20&t=aOxyOplfb56pOMip8mxoMw

The main change in the Donbas since early July is the continuing failure of the Russians to generate the kinds of strong artillery fire which allowed their incremental advances before then. Ranged fire in the Donbas stayed very low this week.

Here is a 6-day map from yesterday backwards and one from July 9. The collapse of recorded fires in the area is massive. Seems like the destruction of Russian depots starting around June 30 is a problem the Russians have been unable to solve.

Map didnt change much in the Kherson region this week, but something did finally occur. There was a noticeable decrease in fire activity, which means the destruction of Russian depots there (which started about 10 days after Donbas) is having the same effect.

Major decrease started on July 25, and has continued compared to earlier (btw, Kherson is tricky because there seem to be lots of patch field fires, so many of these are not ranged fire at all--the important thing is the overall decline in activity).

Here is the Kherson front for 4-days from the start of the decrease (July 25-28) and four days from two weeks ago (July 13-16)

This is not surprising, but shows that the methodical Ukrainian logistics campaign against depots, bridges and command/control is paying dividends. Russian firepower advantage is waning.

Now the big question--the Ukrainian counterattack. Signs are that the Ukrainians are not rushing into this, and the general difficulty of maneuvering large number of tanks and APCs on the modern battlefield against defensive weapons means it still might be a while til they do.

The Ukrainians seem to be carving the Kherson front into separate districts for the Russians, which will have huge difficulties supporting each other. This is why they have been cutting the bridges over the Dnipr river, but also the rivers dividing the areas on the west bank.

Having made these areas non-supporting, and also reduced Russian ranged fires, they are now probing it for weaknesses without taking massive risks. Its not glamorous, but its smart. They seem to be sending small units to find weak points.

https://twitter.com/Ukropo4kA/status/1552569448418222081?s=20&t=aOxyOplfb56pOMip8mxoMw

So while the Ukrainians seem to be advancing in Kherson about as slowly as the Russians advanced in the Donbas, they are doing is far more intelligently.

1) they are not risking suffering major losses. 2) They are doing it not just by blasting the land in front of them that they want to take (making their plans obvious) but by severely hampering Russian abilities to fight back through the logistics and command/control attacks.

My guess is that this will continue for a while. Ukrainians have learned in this war (unlike the Russians so far) to do things the smart way. They seem ready to spend more time (weeks) methodically cutting off and destroying Russian forces in the Kherson area. Its the smart thing

Might not be much of map change next week either.

Before going, wanted to highlight this tweet from @GeneralStaffUA yesterday, because its so extraordinary that sometimes we forget just how extraordinary it is. The Ukrainians are taunting the much vaunted Russian air force about their inability to fly over Ukraine.

The reason the Ukrainians can attempt this counterattack in the Kherson, and move their new ranged systems around safely on open major roads not far from the battlefield is because the Russian Air Force is afraid to fly over Ukraine, it just lbs distance weapons from Russia.

These pictures of HIMARS operating against Russian targets would not be around if the Russian Air Force were a top line force. Basically, using pretty basic stuff (old planes, MANPADS and old Russian anti-air) the Ukrainians have protected their air space.

https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status/1543952978947743744?s=20&t=aOxyOplfb56pOMip8mxoMw

And Ukraine anti-air will soon be beefed up with US NASAMS. This will help not only protect Ukrainian cities from missile attacks, they will help clear Ukrainian skies of all types of Russian air assets.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1553480576933498880?s=20&t=aOxyOplfb56pOMip8mxoMw

Overall another sign of why the Ukrainians arent taking any risks in Kherson. The trends of the war are Russia using weaker, older systems and struggling to generate new forces, Ukraine getting better systems. Just means that a dramatic change in the war might take a while longer