One macro effect of sanctions that is not often discussed: Russian Central Bank projects an astonishing $246 billion net outflow of capital in 2022 - despite capital controls!
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This could be explained by the mass exodus of foreign companies, but that's not it: Western companies and individuals are also subject to capital controls, they cannot move their money out of the country easily.
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The explanation apparently lies in the fact that exporters accumulate their profits on their foreign accounts and do not re-invest in Russia. This is registered as capital outflows.
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This is somewhat paradoxical: capital outflows usually lead to the weakening of the ruble, however, this year witnesses both record outflows and record strengthening of the ruble.
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It seems that the collapse of imports is so great that even the limited amount of currency that reaches Russia is bigger than the economy's capacity to import goods (hence the strong ruble).
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At the same time, vast amounts of currency do not reach Russia at all, remaining on exporters' foreign accounts (and perhaps being re-invested somewhere outside of Russia).
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In essence, the famed record trade surplus is directly translated into record net outflow of capital. Hence no real benefits to the Russian economy.
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Takeaways: 1) the ruble probably won't collapse even as oil/gas trade with Europe continues to decline, 2) nevertheless, Russia's economy is in an extremely unhealthy state, with neither trade surplus nor strong ruble indicating that "sanctions aren't working".
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