THREAD 🧵
On Olenivka prison massacre.
Russian propaganda, being what it is, offers a conspiracy theory saying that over 50 Ukrainian POWs, the Azovstal soldiers, were killed by a Ukrainian HIMARS strike — because Azov members started “giving testimonies.”
So Russian blogosphere is now savoring this narrative saying that evil Zelensky slaughtered his own POW “Ukro-Nazis” because he wanted to prevent them from revealing the “truth” (what kind of truth?) about his NATO Nazi Reich and how Ukraine is to blame for this war.
Because this apparently makes complete sense, you know.
Also, it was a great day for them because scores of Ukro-swines were killed, anyway.
But there’s a problem here.
I am old enough to remember how Azovstal soldiers ended up in Russian captivity in May.
After nearly a month of fighting in the surrounded plant, over 2,000 fighters were eventually given an order to stop fighting and surrender. Their fight was futile at that point. Giving that order was the only realistic chance to possibly save their lives.
For months, Ukraine vowed to do everything possible to get Azvostal soldiers back home. And some did get back home as part of a prisoner swap with Russia. It’s a secret to no one that Azovstal garrison is a national icon, and their release is of top public demand.
So why did “Ukro-Nazis” suddenly decide that they want the Azovstal POWs dead? If the POWs knew some dark secrets about Zelensky’s “Jewish Reich”, why didn’t Ukraine’s leadership just leave them for dead at Azovstal? The garrison had no chances.
All of them would have starved to insanity, run dehydrated, and died from Russian fire, or while fighting with their last bits of strength. Very soon.
But back then, Ukraine opted to try and save their lives and possibly take them home later.
I am not buying this idiotic “Ukraine burned their own POWs down with a HIMARS” horseshit. Because it makes 0 sense and is a dumb conspiracy theory that contradicts basic facts. Only those having goldfish memory can buy that.
This was a mass execution by Russians.
And don’t even get me started on the fact that the Olenivka prison is located some 12 km from the frontline, so it makes 0 sense to use a HIMARS. And the fact that the charred barrack does not look like something hit with a GMLRS M30/M31 rocket.
It’s a Russian mass war crime.
And here’s my conversation with the Azovstal.
I think this was their last interview at the plant. Just days after, they were given the order: “Your mission has been successfully accomplished. Please do it now to save your lives.” kyivindependent.com/national/azovs…
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Downtown Vinnytsya now.
2 dead (including a kid), 6 wounded in a Russian missile strike
The strike’s approx location: 49.23951606215629, 28.492534360995165
There’s an old Soviet Officers’ Club building just across the road.
To those who don’t know — The Officers’ House (or the Officers’ Club) is a sort of cultural center the Soviet military used to establish in pretty much every major city. For concerts, official ceremonies, exhibitions, drama etc.
THREAD: How many tanks does Russia have now? How many more it can throw in against Ukraine?
Let’s think over what we know.
Military Balance 2021 says before the 2022 invasion Russia had a total of 3,330 operational tanks: Т-72s, T-80s, T-90s, up to the latest versions T-72B3Ms…
…T-80BVMs, or T-90Ms.
Ukraine says Russia has lost 1,641 (and counting) tanks, the U.S. says “over 1,000”. @Oryx has already confirmed 857. So this means Russia has lost between 25% (a very conservative estimate) and 50% (an optimistic estimate) in its springtime cringe-krieg…
…and the battle of Donbas. The lower-bound estimate of the lost tanks is still the size of the tank corps of 🇬🇧, 🇩🇪, 🇮🇹, and🇫🇷 combined.
Yep, that’s the world’s second military power definitely winning its 72-hour special military operation against…
I lost count of soldiers I used to know who were killed in Ukraine. Even before the ‘big war’. I remember many names, faces, stories that are not around anymore. I met quite a few people in war since 2014.
This guy was cleaning his weapon as I was with his unit. Now KIA.
That guy was the one I once fried potatoes with during a mortar attack. This guy was our Mi-24 pilot in Congo and we had like 300 mutual friends on FB. I rooted for that guy to be a prize winner as a young successful company leader. So many of them dead.
The death toll of someone you know grows. In Ukraine’s military and near-military community, everyone has mutual friends with anyone. The word is spread quickly: “Hey everyone, X is dead.” And you see a portrait of smiling soldier you used to share tea with in a dugout.
THREAD:
Regarding the ‘escalation’ some Putin fans are trying to scare people with.
Long story short - utter bullshit. The reality is that Russia is already reaching the very limits of its military might and is throwing almost everything it can against Ukraine.
It is already using pretty much all conventional weaponry it can deploy, including ballistic missiles and strategic bombers. It has committed pretty much all of its combat-capable manpower available for foreign operations.
And it runs low on reserves and manpower in general as operations in Ukraine are extremely slow and costly.
The shock of the cringe-krieg of February and March is over. Much of its most combat-capable formations, including airborne and naval infantry, have been…
I don’t think that we should expect to see Russian forces in Hostomel-Irpin-Bucha effectively locked in a death trap in the nearest time.
Ukrainian military will most likely continue breaking their supply lines and exhausting them in mobile defense along roads.
I don’t think this large enemy group is exhausted enough for that. And I don’t think Ukrainian forces have enough control north and south of Bucha, including the Zhytomyr highway — at least, not yet.
We’ll see what happens next.
IMHO it’s too early for Ukrainian forces to completely switch from mobile defense and mount a big time attack in this area — the command still wants to save and as much power as possible.
Russian air power in the region is not 100% suppressed yet.