Kyiv Oblast, not far away from Bucha.
We all heard this blast before the dawn this morning. To me, this looks a bit strange - we sure had a powerful blast this morning in our district, but we interpreted it as air defense at work.

At the same time, we know there was an impact in the vicinity of the village of Buda Babynetska, with no casualties and a number of local households damaged.

Maybe that giant crater is a hole in which the military carry out ammunition disposal works? That's what we have on a daily basis in Kyiv Oblast.

Nothing but my speculation!

I'll try to go and see what's in there today.

People - I got contacts of this girl, she was among those who were in that house in Dnipro ruined by a Russian missile today.
She’s not a soldier — but what do you say if I suggest that we send a bit of our aid to her from you donations?
She has lost everything.
May I? instagram.com/just_strange_c…

Sue me, but Zelensky is right now having the greatest New Year’s Day address in this country’s history. My girlfriend is crying like hell

Just to give you guys an idea of how people in Ukraine adapt to the lack of electricity because of Russia’s missile terror.
It’s all thanks to modern technology and a bit of imagination (and money, yeah).
For instance, I have a gas boiler in my apartment. If the power… ...is off, I have neither heating nor hot water. And I’m screwed. So I get myself a charging station, and if things are really bad, I can turn the boiler on for a couple of hours a day and sustain more or less acceptable air temperature at home.
And I can recharge the thing…

Hey everyone!
I have transferred our aid to two Azovstal soldiers: Vladyslav “Wikipedia” Zhaivoronok (he lost an eye and a leg in combat) and Dmytro “Orest” Kozatsky @Kozatsky_D (the author of the legendary photos from inside the Azovstal).
$20,000 and $5,000, respectively. The guys needed assistance with medical rehabilitation/prosthetics/recovery etc. They are the first ones to get our aid. I have made a list of over 30 marines, border guards, etc who were badly wounded, upon recommendations from trusted friends among medical volunteers.

We’re just about to hit $50,000 in donations to #HelpAzovstalDefenders — and everyone is welcome to join!
The charity campaign was launched just 24 hours ago but we have already fundraised a lot.
We’re to provide medical treatment to disabled Azovstal soldiers. Here’s my PayPal account for donations: i.ponomarenko@kyivindependent.com

Hey, people, a bit of news here.
IMPORTANT THREAD!🧵
I’ve decided that I start fundraising to help wounded Azovstal soldiers.
That’s on the regular basis.
#HelpAzovstalDefenders The recent campaign to help heal Mykhailo Dianov, the Azovstal marine, was quite a success. And so many of you guys are so eager to keep donating.
I’m receiving donations on my PayPal account i.ponomarenko@kyivindependent.com

Azov Regiment’s commanding officer Denys “Redis” Prokopenko and deputy CO Svyatoslav “Kalyna” Palamar have been freed from Russian captivity
#Azovstal There’s a thermonuclear blast in the Russian milbloggers community right now

My hypothesis on what’s Ukraine doing in Kherson region.
The Ukrainian military likely put a stake on gradually exhausting and embattling Russia’s grouping on the Dnipro right bank — while also keeping it isolated from supplies and from across the river… So Ukrainian forces are likely probing Russian defenses all along the line, looking for weak spots, trying to advance and capitalize on their gains if possible.
It certainly does not have enough manpower and hardware for a reckless, costly, Russian-style frontal attack…

Thread 🧵
Guys, it’s just the time for you to finally embrace the true Ukrainian wartime meme “BAVOVNA”.
The bavovna is exactly what happened to that Russian airfield in Crimea, in particular. Once upon a time, when the Ukrainian military delivered a strike on Russian territory, local Russian officials on TV downplayed the blast effect and referred to it as “khlopok” (“a clap”) of absolutely mysterious origin.

#Amnestyinternational @amnesty
War is hard. It’s horrific. It’s far from all those clean, climate-controlled offices and chart boards.
Everybody thinks the same thing: how to survive and possibly get a mission done. If you have been there, you know it. Whether we like it or not, it is often far from those ideal rules written on paper. It’s a good idea to demand that combating sides respect the law of war and keep civilians safe. Unfortunately, very often, it’s easier said than done.

THREAD 🧵
On Olenivka prison massacre.
Russian propaganda, being what it is, offers a conspiracy theory saying that over 50 Ukrainian POWs, the Azovstal soldiers, were killed by a Ukrainian HIMARS strike — because Azov members started “giving testimonies.” So Russian blogosphere is now savoring this narrative saying that evil Zelensky slaughtered his own POW “Ukro-Nazis” because he wanted to prevent them from revealing the “truth” (what kind of truth?) about his NATO Nazi Reich and how Ukraine is to blame for this war.

Downtown Vinnytsya now.
2 dead (including a kid), 6 wounded in a Russian missile strike The strike’s approx location: 49.23951606215629, 28.492534360995165
There’s an old Soviet Officers’ Club building just across the road.

THREAD: How many tanks does Russia have now? How many more it can throw in against Ukraine?
Let’s think over what we know.
Military Balance 2021 says before the 2022 invasion Russia had a total of 3,330 operational tanks: Т-72s, T-80s, T-90s, up to the latest versions T-72B3Ms… …T-80BVMs, or T-90Ms.
Ukraine says Russia has lost 1,641 (and counting) tanks, the U.S. says “over 1,000”. @Oryx has already confirmed 857. So this means Russia has lost between 25% (a very conservative estimate) and 50% (an optimistic estimate) in its springtime cringe-krieg…

I lost count of soldiers I used to know who were killed in Ukraine. Even before the ‘big war’. I remember many names, faces, stories that are not around anymore. I met quite a few people in war since 2014.
This guy was cleaning his weapon as I was with his unit. Now KIA. That guy was the one I once fried potatoes with during a mortar attack. This guy was our Mi-24 pilot in Congo and we had like 300 mutual friends on FB. I rooted for that guy to be a prize winner as a young successful company leader. So many of them dead.

THREAD:
Regarding the ‘escalation’ some Putin fans are trying to scare people with.
Long story short - utter bullshit. The reality is that Russia is already reaching the very limits of its military might and is throwing almost everything it can against Ukraine. It is already using pretty much all conventional weaponry it can deploy, including ballistic missiles and strategic bombers. It has committed pretty much all of its combat-capable manpower available for foreign operations.

I don’t think that we should expect to see Russian forces in Hostomel-Irpin-Bucha effectively locked in a death trap in the nearest time.
Ukrainian military will most likely continue breaking their supply lines and exhausting them in mobile defense along roads. I don’t think this large enemy group is exhausted enough for that. And I don’t think Ukrainian forces have enough control north and south of Bucha, including the Zhytomyr highway — at least, not yet.
We’ll see what happens next.