Thread by @drsimonwilliams

Even *if* COVID was 'just another' virus (its not BTW), then this is still a problem. Here's why 🧵

In short, having ('just') ANOTHER virus that hospitalises many and infects many, many more ON TOP of existing respiratory viruses, is a big burden on healthcare

2/n the classic epidemiology bathtub metaphor may be useful here. Lets think of the bathtub as NHS (healthcare system) capacity ... adding covid to the mix, is like rapidly opening the tap up - or rather, like turning an extra tap on.

3/Also its not a choice between covid OR other viral infections

So not only can people get re-infected with covid multiple times, they can also get infected withmultiple viruses-i'll defer to epidemologists and virologists like @SGriffin_Lab @ArisKatzourakis @dgurdasani1 4 more

4/Look at this recent study from Germany.

Post restrictions, (non-covid) respiratory viruses in children grew significantly lockdowns, and gastro viruses carried on as usual

link.springer.com/article/10.100…

So again, having 'just another' new virus (covid) is additive not substitutive

5/ As @chrischirp and others have shown, COVID's additive burden needs to be placed in context of overall NHS pressures.

https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1553025923758166018?s=20&t=_2Wo4bhlZOM6UjhyB6qWZw

Its not just the UK, WHO (no pu intended) is worried about Autumn/Winter.

who.int/europe/news/it…

6/This is why reasonable voluntary behaviours and policy protections - esp. in Autumn-Winter - can help reduce the pressure on NHS from many hospitalising viruses (including but not limited to COVID). See some suggestions hereby myself & @SusanMichie :

bmj.com/content/378/bm…

7/ Getting infected with #COVID19 AND #flu at the same time increases the risk of serious illness (mechanical ventilation) 👇

thelancet.com/journals/lance…

8/ So even *if* COVID was 'just like' the flu - the more covid (& flu) around during winter, the higher the probability that some will get co-infected with both

A problem particularly for the more vulnerable

High vax uptake IMPORTANT for both covid and flu jabs for these ppl

9/ Back to the tub..

We need to:

1. Build a bigger bathtub - by increasing NHS/healthcare capacity/resource)

2. Reduce volume/pressure going into the bath - by reducing incidence (esp. during winter) of infectious diseases.

Ideally both!

10/ ... otherwise the 'pressure' will continue to show in terms of excess deaths ... as @dgurdasani1 discusses here :

https://mobile.twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1553102316139601920

11/ so what can we do to mitigate the future risks?

individually, we can think of face masks like umbrellas m - I discuss this in a new @ConversationUK article -

theconversation.com/living-with-co…

12/ but pandemic mitigation is never just about ‘individual responsibility’ as I have argued:

bmj.com/content/bmj/37…

and as @SusanMichie @ReicherStephen @robertjwest also argue in a fantastic recent @bmj_latest piece

bmj.com/content/378/bm…