Dara Massicot Profile picture
Aug 1 6 tweets 2 min read
The long-term damage to the Russian army, marines, VDV from this war cannot be overstated. It goes beyond the numbers of men killed and equipment destroyed. This will also be a story of a military generation that is damaged or gone, and who remains. /1
Heavy losses to what professional NCOs RS had, junior + field-grade officers means that the group of people who signed up in the last 10-15 years, when the military tried to reform and who knew something even a little different than 90s or Soviet military life, are gone /2
When this is over, the parts of those service branches left unscathed are conscripts, those officers or NCOs they didn't trust to go in the first place (who are back at home garrisons), senior officers who received commissions as Soviet officers (50/60 year olds) and/3
....those who survived in Ukraine, bringing back combat stress/trauma/criminality with them, right back into the barracks. This will be a toxic brew for incoming conscripts for years to come. Without significant oversight the conditions hazing could get out of control /4
Then, add in the mass casualty events that the Russian military has not coped with since WW2, being sent in unprepared for the Kremlin's war of choice, the lies, the war crimes, atrocities, the list goes on and on. /5
In sum, the numbers of Russian casualties are severe enough -- but the damage that will ricochet around inside those service branches after this war is over, will be worse. reuters.com/world/europe/r…

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More from @MassDara

Jul 19
Update on Russian spring conscription thread. The spring cycle was due to conclude on 15 July. It's a data poor environment in general on this, but there are no signs that there were significant problems meeting quotas in the end. Raids minimal, only small surges for alt service/
Reporting from NGOs - only isolated raids to find potential conscripts /2
meduza.io/feature/2022/0…
and efforts to dissuade young men from signing up for alternative service show only a modest increase from already low numbers. some coercion at the voenkomat. /3
meduza.io/feature/2022/0…
Read 4 tweets
Jun 29
I continue to look for signs of long-term stability or problems in Russian military personnel recruitment and retention for 2023+ as a result of their war on Ukraine. Some preliminary thoughts from about the Russian spring draft. Conscript intake numbers are low so far (/1).
The 2022 spring draft runs from April – 15 July; roughly 85% of the time has elapsed as of today. In the 8 Russian regions I found information on conscription intake, most are at 30% or less of their conscript quota as of mid-June (/2)
8 oblasts is only 17% of total in Russia, but all 8 are coming up short as of June. These regions are geographically diverse and diverse in population density. This suggests an overall trend of sluggish conscript intake. (/3)
Read 15 tweets
May 18
The Russian military’s stumbles in Ukraine do not end at technical equipment issues, poor training, or corruption. Something is still wrong within the force, no matter how extensively it has been modernized. My latest, below. (1/x) foreignaffairs.com/articles/russi… via @ForeignAffairs
The Russian military’s stumbles in Ukraine are linked by a core underlying theme and unresolved problem: the continued disregard for the lives and wellbeing of its personnel (2/x)
In the war so far, Russia has struggled to accomplish basic functions like retrieving the bodies of its dead, or treating scared Russian military families with dignity. (3/x)
Read 14 tweets
May 12
📣📣 New report with many relevant insights on Russian Air Force capability and operational patterns. Road to Damascus: The Russian Air Campaign in Syria: 2015 to 2018. rand.org/pubs/research_… via @RANDCorporation. Image
A great team led by Adam Grissom and Christopher Mouton - the report is well worth your time. 👍 Cc @Justin_Br0nk @GuyPlopsky @P63285001 @KofmanMichael @konrad_muzyka @jeffaedmonds @OlyaOliker @CombatAir
From research in 2019: “ Russia’s reluctance to invest in expensive precision-guided munitions,underdeveloped targeting and penetrating ISR capabilities, and lack of inter-theater tanking could be liabilities in future campaigns with a larger area of operations…”
Read 15 tweets
May 2
Much commentary about Gen Gerasimov’s presence in Ukraine & Russian military command. I wanted to open up the vault about his previous experience as a field commander and how that’s relevant too. (Below in Chechnya). /1
It’s surprising to many here in the west that someone of his rank would go to the front. There are larger issues and implications here at play about his visit, and I think @MarkHertling covered them well here /2
Gerasimov was a field commander in Chechnya and led combined arms armies and multiple military districts in his career. He is not what some would call a General Staff “arbat general” - a pejorative for staff officers with little field experience.He has been there a while though/3
Read 8 tweets
Feb 6
Now that more Russian military personnel are moving into position near Ukraine, the Kremlin and military’s continued silence & disregard to their own troops and families is unsustainable and may backfire. Signs of early cracks and other considerations below: 👇(/1)
A majority of Russia’s professionally manned BTGs and soldiers are likely deploying near Ukraine or Belarus now, with no national address to the Russian people or little discernible info to soldiers’ families about why —other than training.(/2)
The MoD has pulled contract soldiers from all over Russia, conscripts cannot be used in a combat zone. So that’s a clue. Brass has a history of pressuring conscripts to sign contracts, that news tends to trickle out as it did in 2014/15. 3. apnews.com/article/356ae5…
Read 12 tweets

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