Andrew Perpetua Profile picture
Aug 2, 2022 17 tweets 8 min read Read on X
My daily update! #ukrdailyupdate

There is very little news today.

If you would like to view the map: google.com/maps/d/u/0/edi…
In the Kharkiv area, Russia appears to be preparing for an offensive. Russia performed reconnaissance around several unnamed towns, probably Prudyanka, Dementiivka, Pyomnyk, Boschchova, Petrivka, Husarivka, Zalyman, and Chepil.
Ukraine is constructing minefields around Zalyman and Chepil (yellow = minefield).
In the Izyum/Slovyansk area Russian forces performed reconnaissance around Mazanivka (1). Other than this I found no news.
The Siversk area similarly had little news beyond the regular shelling.
In the Bakhmut area, Russia tried to perform reconnaissance around Yakovlivka (2), but the group was located and destroyed. Around Soledar, a Russian offensive into the town was repelled (3).
Russian forces claim to be moving north along the outskirts of Soledar without really being able to enter it. They are painting this as some sort of way of surrounding the town and attacking Bakhmut from the flank, but if you look at the map that makes no sense whatsoever.
Russian forces were also bragging today that they managed to shoot a football field sized warehouse with artillery after having repeatedly missing for days. A+ Gunnery. They say their newfound success comes from having spotters closer to the building.
Russians are trying to move towards Bakhmut (4), whether they are claiming the vector is towards Vesela Dolyna or Bakhmut itself is largely irrelevant. They are making little progress. It is possible they completely control Pokrovske, but I have not seen confirmation.
A Russian assault on Vershyna failed today (5), and I have subtracted some of the ground I had prematurely given them.

There is ongoing fighting around Semyhirya, even though neither side made note of any particular assaults today.
In the Donetsk area: Russian forces are trying to assault Avdiivka and they made little to no progress (6). Similarly, their assault on Pisky (7) has had little progress, and there are rumors that the tiny amount of territory they gained over the weekend has already been lost.
Overnight, a Russian recon squad was identified and repelled in Marinka (8), and during the day a Russian attack in Marinka was also repelled (9).
(I decided to make Russian recon orange to differentiate it from assaults)
In Zaporizhzhia, Russian forces tried to drive Ukrainian forces away from Nesterianka (10) and Konovalova (11), but both attacks were repelled.
Russia is moving forces from Vasylivka to Polohy to reinforce the village (12). Ukrainian forces are getting dangerously close to Polohy, and Russian forces have been unable to stop their advance.
In the Kherson area, I did not find any news, but the pattern of artillery fire is interesting. It seems to imply that Ukraine may be contesting if not controlling Novopetrivka (A), Vysokopillya (B), and Novoznesenske (C ). It is possible that even Myroliubivka (D) is contested.
Also, there just seems to be a lot going on around the Inhulets River.

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More from @AndrewPerpetua

Mar 19
Here are losses for February.

First, the total losses by category. You see significantly more losses for Russia than for Ukraine. This is the first month where Rubicon played a significant part of the Ukrainian losses. Image
Roughly 17% of Ukraine's losses in the month of February were from Rubicon (328 out of 1965). Primarily in Kursk.
Here you can see Tank, Infantry Fighting Vehicle, Armored Personnel Carrier, and MRAP losses by day through the month. Note that Russia uses few MRAPs. Image
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Read 7 tweets
Mar 6
While Trump’s team spreads defeatism and tries to blackmail Ukraine into surrender, Ukrainian soldiers on the battlefield remain unimpressed by the proclamations coming out of Washington Oblast.

Their actions speak louder than words.
In recent days, Ukraine has:

Recaptured Kotlyne
Liberated Pischane
Pushed into Shevchenko

These gains prove two critical points.
🔹 First: Ukraine still has the ability to seize the initiative.

Despite immense challenges, its military can concentrate forces, execute counterattacks, and maintain operational momentum—suggesting it retains significant reserves.

If the West falters, Ukraine can continue fighting until Russia collapses. Slowly trading land against Russian offensive potentials.

If the West finds its backbone, Ukraine can decisively defeat Russia and end the war on just terms.
Read 9 tweets
Feb 13
Europe could have invested 1-2 hundred billion dollars over the past 3 years, but instead they will have to invest 3-5 trillion over the next 20. I’ve talked about this many times in the past. The politicians made very unwise decisions because they were afraid.
Should have gone 100% all in on making Ukraine win from day 1. Full on everything. It would have fixed every problem. Countries still aren’t even doing this. Every single day you delay will cost you 100 or 1000 times more over the next few years.
You thought it cost too much to squeeze 20-30 billion dollars into your budget for 5 years. Imagine having to fit in 500 billion.
Read 4 tweets
Feb 7
There is absolutely no reason for Ukraine to negotiate with Russia, at all, for any reason, in the year 2025. Any negotiations should start in mid 2026, when the Russian economy has imploded, their deficits are blasting off to the moon, and Russia can no longer fight.
Every country should be looking at the situation like this: we only have to get ukraine through the next 12-18 months. We need to throw in the money, weapons, and ammo available now to make this happen. This is not a forever war. There is 1 year left. We are 75% done.
Russia will have absolutely no ability to wage war in the year 2027. Zero ability. Bringing the war into 2027 should be the threat to Russia. If we supply Ukraine through to that time period, Russia risks absolute implosion.
Read 11 tweets
Feb 5
This little bulldozer effectively negated the impact of the russian airforce on the Ukrainian supply lines south of Kostyantynopil. Russians were dropping tremendous numbers of bombs in an attempt to destroy the bridges, and this little guy is out here rebuilding them and getting rid of craters. It took a solid hit from a FPV Drone, but the driver wasn't there when it happened. Little guy denied the impact of the airforce for a few thousand dollars. This is why Engineering fundraisers are vital.Image
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Here you can see some of the airstrikes.
Also, it takes a significant amount of bravery to go out there on a bulldozer and fix these damaged bridges. You are very exposed. And, hopefully, the bulldozer is reliable because you don't want to be messing around out there.
Read 4 tweets
Feb 1
Russians will tell you they want peace.

They do not.

The Russian government believes peace is submitting to their will and becoming a slave. And any slave who disobeys must be destroyed.

Russians do not want peace. They want to rule.

The Russian government must be destroyed Image
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this is what their so called peace looks like Image
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Read 7 tweets

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