Andrew Perpetua Profile picture
Aug 2, 2022 17 tweets 8 min read Read on X
My daily update! #ukrdailyupdate

There is very little news today.

If you would like to view the map: google.com/maps/d/u/0/edi…
In the Kharkiv area, Russia appears to be preparing for an offensive. Russia performed reconnaissance around several unnamed towns, probably Prudyanka, Dementiivka, Pyomnyk, Boschchova, Petrivka, Husarivka, Zalyman, and Chepil.
Ukraine is constructing minefields around Zalyman and Chepil (yellow = minefield).
In the Izyum/Slovyansk area Russian forces performed reconnaissance around Mazanivka (1). Other than this I found no news.
The Siversk area similarly had little news beyond the regular shelling.
In the Bakhmut area, Russia tried to perform reconnaissance around Yakovlivka (2), but the group was located and destroyed. Around Soledar, a Russian offensive into the town was repelled (3).
Russian forces claim to be moving north along the outskirts of Soledar without really being able to enter it. They are painting this as some sort of way of surrounding the town and attacking Bakhmut from the flank, but if you look at the map that makes no sense whatsoever.
Russian forces were also bragging today that they managed to shoot a football field sized warehouse with artillery after having repeatedly missing for days. A+ Gunnery. They say their newfound success comes from having spotters closer to the building.
Russians are trying to move towards Bakhmut (4), whether they are claiming the vector is towards Vesela Dolyna or Bakhmut itself is largely irrelevant. They are making little progress. It is possible they completely control Pokrovske, but I have not seen confirmation.
A Russian assault on Vershyna failed today (5), and I have subtracted some of the ground I had prematurely given them.

There is ongoing fighting around Semyhirya, even though neither side made note of any particular assaults today.
In the Donetsk area: Russian forces are trying to assault Avdiivka and they made little to no progress (6). Similarly, their assault on Pisky (7) has had little progress, and there are rumors that the tiny amount of territory they gained over the weekend has already been lost.
Overnight, a Russian recon squad was identified and repelled in Marinka (8), and during the day a Russian attack in Marinka was also repelled (9).
(I decided to make Russian recon orange to differentiate it from assaults)
In Zaporizhzhia, Russian forces tried to drive Ukrainian forces away from Nesterianka (10) and Konovalova (11), but both attacks were repelled.
Russia is moving forces from Vasylivka to Polohy to reinforce the village (12). Ukrainian forces are getting dangerously close to Polohy, and Russian forces have been unable to stop their advance.
In the Kherson area, I did not find any news, but the pattern of artillery fire is interesting. It seems to imply that Ukraine may be contesting if not controlling Novopetrivka (A), Vysokopillya (B), and Novoznesenske (C ). It is possible that even Myroliubivka (D) is contested.
Also, there just seems to be a lot going on around the Inhulets River.

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More from @AndrewPerpetua

Aug 21
This is what Russia does. A country that only exports oil, gas, and war. This is the city of Marinka. Image
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Read 4 tweets
Jul 26
I wrote 2 years ago about why I was worried about Molniya drones. They are long range and capable of very large warheads. For whatever reason they were oddly scarce for a while, but they have become very common items on the battlefield and exactly everything I feared.
They can destroy a house in a single hit. Even small concrete buildings. They can dive straight down into dugouts, fly along trenches and fly into bunkers. They are being used to target infantry now, too. Russia clearly has a lot of them and are using them to destroy things that used to require helicopters.
They cost around $1000 each, roughly 2x a base level drone or roughly the same price as a higher end fpv drone. But they can carry a 6-7kg bomb and can fly over 40km.
Read 6 tweets
Jul 3
The United States government is built on the concept that Congressmen will have the swagger to take pride in their station. The government hinges on congress enforcing their will upon others. They are supposed to be arrogant sons of bitches who look down on others.
The moment you have a congress that is unwilling or incapable of being arrogant, condescending assholes and you instead have weak placating losers, the whole foundation of the government crumbles. The supreme arrogance of congress is what lets them reign in power of president.
Right now the US has the weakest congress in its history. A bunch of spineless losers who are incapable of even having independent thought. They are owned entirely by others, especially the republican party who bows to a president. Imagine, a CONGRESSMEN bowing to a PRESIDENT.
Read 7 tweets
Jun 23
A few areas where I have been focusing on geoing strikes on Russians positions lately have been interesting in that only a very tiny number of Russians are defending. In one area in particular, the video showed a drone scan a series of trenches where only four Russians were spotted. Two killed and two forced to flee. I wonder what is behind those Russians, and whether it is similarly a skeleton crew on defense. Also, these Russians were quite far from Ukrainian positions, so they were not some extremely advanced forward position, they seem to me to be the second and/or third line of defense, which are typically more heavily manned.
When I see video like this, from an area very far from offensive actions, where Russia is purely defending, it makes me wonder how different the war would be if Ukraine had the capacity to attack this location. I feel like if Ukraine were to attack and capture it, many people online would say the area doesn't matter because it is only advancing 1km or blah blah. But advancing 1km is important, because it forces Russians to divert resources away from attacking to defending. Or you will advance a second k, or a third km until such a point that the Russians are forced to defend.
There is an area where Ukraine has been slowly advancing in this manner. Nobody is really talking about it, because it isn't sexy. It doesn't impact any large battles, it isn't a sign of things to come, or anything else. It is just Ukraine taking advantage of Russia failing to adequately defend positions.
Read 5 tweets
May 23
Ukraine does not have an adequate air force, but it can create the effects of an air force using other methods and tools. For example, long-range drones can be deployed in a series of nested concentric circles to mine and harass supply roads, effectively cutting them off.

One layer of drones could strike targets 100 km out, the next at 80 km, then 60 km, 40 km, and finally, the remaining drones could dominate the last 20–30 km leading to the front.

With sufficient drone coverage density, the impact on enemy logistics can closely mirror that of a conventional air force—cutting off supplies and limiting troop movements.

Furthermore, the development of heavier strike drones, with payloads between 100 and 500 kg, can replicate the effects of traditional airstrikes. In conjunction with attack drones, this combination becomes a deadly one-two punch: attack drones locate and relay target positions, and heavier strike drones follow up with rapid and destructive precision.

Once the enemy's rear positions are degraded to this extent, the front becomes unsustainable. The opposing force will be forced to withdraw, regardless of intent.

Ukraine does not need large offensive pushes to defeat Russia. It needs extremely high-density drone coverage to deny Russian sustainment. Land can be taken back piece by piece, without committing to large and costly ground assaults.
All but the heavy strike drones can be done with the technology that Ukraine has available today, right now. The strike drones could be developed in short order. This is a realistic path to victory using the tools and resources available. And one which Europe could help using financing alone.
Europe could also provide longer range weapons for Ukraine’s existing aircraft, which is frankly a much more unrealistic path forward. Albeit possible. And Europe doesn’t really have the weapons available to give, so would require making them first.
Read 4 tweets
May 10
After Trump put Fedex guys in charge of USPS, the democrats should issue an official warning that any aspect of USPS that might get “privatized” under trump will be immediately seized, without compensation, by the following administration and congress.
There should be an open air understanding that any aspect of the government privatized by Trump will be seized back without compensation. We will eminent domain your ass, and change any law (or court makeup) to make it legal.
The property of the people isn’t for sale. That’s the message.
Read 4 tweets

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