Andrew Perpetua Profile picture
Aug 2, 2022 17 tweets 8 min read Read on X
My daily update! #ukrdailyupdate

There is very little news today.

If you would like to view the map: google.com/maps/d/u/0/edi…
In the Kharkiv area, Russia appears to be preparing for an offensive. Russia performed reconnaissance around several unnamed towns, probably Prudyanka, Dementiivka, Pyomnyk, Boschchova, Petrivka, Husarivka, Zalyman, and Chepil.
Ukraine is constructing minefields around Zalyman and Chepil (yellow = minefield).
In the Izyum/Slovyansk area Russian forces performed reconnaissance around Mazanivka (1). Other than this I found no news.
The Siversk area similarly had little news beyond the regular shelling.
In the Bakhmut area, Russia tried to perform reconnaissance around Yakovlivka (2), but the group was located and destroyed. Around Soledar, a Russian offensive into the town was repelled (3).
Russian forces claim to be moving north along the outskirts of Soledar without really being able to enter it. They are painting this as some sort of way of surrounding the town and attacking Bakhmut from the flank, but if you look at the map that makes no sense whatsoever.
Russian forces were also bragging today that they managed to shoot a football field sized warehouse with artillery after having repeatedly missing for days. A+ Gunnery. They say their newfound success comes from having spotters closer to the building.
Russians are trying to move towards Bakhmut (4), whether they are claiming the vector is towards Vesela Dolyna or Bakhmut itself is largely irrelevant. They are making little progress. It is possible they completely control Pokrovske, but I have not seen confirmation.
A Russian assault on Vershyna failed today (5), and I have subtracted some of the ground I had prematurely given them.

There is ongoing fighting around Semyhirya, even though neither side made note of any particular assaults today.
In the Donetsk area: Russian forces are trying to assault Avdiivka and they made little to no progress (6). Similarly, their assault on Pisky (7) has had little progress, and there are rumors that the tiny amount of territory they gained over the weekend has already been lost.
Overnight, a Russian recon squad was identified and repelled in Marinka (8), and during the day a Russian attack in Marinka was also repelled (9).
(I decided to make Russian recon orange to differentiate it from assaults)
In Zaporizhzhia, Russian forces tried to drive Ukrainian forces away from Nesterianka (10) and Konovalova (11), but both attacks were repelled.
Russia is moving forces from Vasylivka to Polohy to reinforce the village (12). Ukrainian forces are getting dangerously close to Polohy, and Russian forces have been unable to stop their advance.
In the Kherson area, I did not find any news, but the pattern of artillery fire is interesting. It seems to imply that Ukraine may be contesting if not controlling Novopetrivka (A), Vysokopillya (B), and Novoznesenske (C ). It is possible that even Myroliubivka (D) is contested.
Also, there just seems to be a lot going on around the Inhulets River.

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More from @AndrewPerpetua

May 3
The US saw Russia using nothing but golf carts and ladas in Ukraine and said fuck it, we're going on all in. We're cancelling all armor procurement. Battle golf carts are the future. Who needs firepower when you have bags of meat strapped to a go-cart?
Many Americans will die, and that is a sacrifice the Army is willing to make. Drive the golf cart full steam into a drone swarm. The guys in the back will have tons of ability to shoot back before they die, since there will be no walls or doors to get in the way.
All paths will be heavily mined, which is why we got rid of mraps. The mraps would just get disabled anyway, and then you'd be wishing you had a golf cart to ride. So, instead of wasting our time with armor, lets cut to the chase and deploy you on a golf cart from the start.
Read 5 tweets
May 1
Interesting uptick in Russian dive bomber drones recently. I've wondered why they were developed then suddenly disappeared. They always seemed the most effective type of drone.
Russians are using dive bombers to destroy vehicles. Much more efficient than suiciding the drone and deals the same damage.
Magyar used to use dive bombers to destroy tanks, but stopped for some reason.
Read 8 tweets
Apr 26
Sitting here listening to a news report from the 1970s where the police broke into the wrong house in a police raid, where every American was... normal. They were outraged, they wanted immediate accountability and changes to the law. And then congress... changed the law. Apparently the US had a functional society at some point.
Literally in 4 days there will be a major supreme court case in the US about this. That law from the 70s, the federal government has basically declared the law doesn't count. On Tuesday, four days from now, there is a Supreme Court case where the courts will decide whether that law written by congress is going to be followed or whether the judiciary gets to invent their own laws and ignore congress.
And nobody is talking about this, for some reason. Even after literally yesterday where Trump literally signed an executive order THAT ALLOWS FEDERAL AGENTS TO SEARCH YOUR HOUSE WITHOUT A WARRANT.
Read 6 tweets
Apr 18
I see several things happening in Ukraine right now:

1: Ukraine has pivoted to a drone based defense. Most of the gains you see Russia making right now are coming as a result of one of two things. A: Inferior Ukrainian drone units or B: Overwhelming Numerical Superiority.
When I say an inferior drone unit, I do not mean the pilots are bad, or even necessarily that their construction is bad. It could be as simple as not having access to enough drones, or not having enough pilots. I simply mean the unit isn’t strong enough for the task.
Where we see the strongest drone units, we see Russia struggling to advance, Usually only advancing with extreme numerical superiority and enormous casualties.
Read 15 tweets
Apr 15
I started the weekend with like 40 days of backlog. Ugh. I did 19 days. Meh. Here are the days. Image
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Read 19 tweets
Mar 19
Here are losses for February.

First, the total losses by category. You see significantly more losses for Russia than for Ukraine. This is the first month where Rubicon played a significant part of the Ukrainian losses. Image
Roughly 17% of Ukraine's losses in the month of February were from Rubicon (328 out of 1965). Primarily in Kursk.
Here you can see Tank, Infantry Fighting Vehicle, Armored Personnel Carrier, and MRAP losses by day through the month. Note that Russia uses few MRAPs. Image
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Read 7 tweets

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