In the Kharkiv area, Russia appears to be preparing for an offensive. Russia performed reconnaissance around several unnamed towns, probably Prudyanka, Dementiivka, Pyomnyk, Boschchova, Petrivka, Husarivka, Zalyman, and Chepil.
Ukraine is constructing minefields around Zalyman and Chepil (yellow = minefield).
In the Izyum/Slovyansk area Russian forces performed reconnaissance around Mazanivka (1). Other than this I found no news.
The Siversk area similarly had little news beyond the regular shelling.
In the Bakhmut area, Russia tried to perform reconnaissance around Yakovlivka (2), but the group was located and destroyed. Around Soledar, a Russian offensive into the town was repelled (3).
Russian forces claim to be moving north along the outskirts of Soledar without really being able to enter it. They are painting this as some sort of way of surrounding the town and attacking Bakhmut from the flank, but if you look at the map that makes no sense whatsoever.
Russian forces were also bragging today that they managed to shoot a football field sized warehouse with artillery after having repeatedly missing for days. A+ Gunnery. They say their newfound success comes from having spotters closer to the building.
Russians are trying to move towards Bakhmut (4), whether they are claiming the vector is towards Vesela Dolyna or Bakhmut itself is largely irrelevant. They are making little progress. It is possible they completely control Pokrovske, but I have not seen confirmation.
A Russian assault on Vershyna failed today (5), and I have subtracted some of the ground I had prematurely given them.
There is ongoing fighting around Semyhirya, even though neither side made note of any particular assaults today.
In the Donetsk area: Russian forces are trying to assault Avdiivka and they made little to no progress (6). Similarly, their assault on Pisky (7) has had little progress, and there are rumors that the tiny amount of territory they gained over the weekend has already been lost.
Overnight, a Russian recon squad was identified and repelled in Marinka (8), and during the day a Russian attack in Marinka was also repelled (9).
(I decided to make Russian recon orange to differentiate it from assaults)
In Zaporizhzhia, Russian forces tried to drive Ukrainian forces away from Nesterianka (10) and Konovalova (11), but both attacks were repelled.
Russia is moving forces from Vasylivka to Polohy to reinforce the village (12). Ukrainian forces are getting dangerously close to Polohy, and Russian forces have been unable to stop their advance.
In the Kherson area, I did not find any news, but the pattern of artillery fire is interesting. It seems to imply that Ukraine may be contesting if not controlling Novopetrivka (A), Vysokopillya (B), and Novoznesenske (C ). It is possible that even Myroliubivka (D) is contested.
Also, there just seems to be a lot going on around the Inhulets River.
Frankly I think the fastest way to end the war in Ukraine is not by sending tanks or by idiotic peace proposals. The fastest way is to set up factories across europe to produce 1000-2000 long range strike drones per day, and launch hundreds if not thousands of drones into Russia every single day until the country collapses. If they think sending 500 drones into Ukraine is a threat, see how they respond when 3000 drones fly into Russia.
With this many drones you can hammer every single factory, powerplant, substation, oil refinery, and mine in russia relentlessly.
Europe had a million drone program, to supply 1 million fpv drones. Fuck fpv drones. Have a 1 million drone program to supply 1 million strike drones. That's your million drones.
The "stupid westerners, sanctions do not work, we smuggle goods in illegally. muahaha, Russia unstoppable" people tickle me. Sanctions are not for stopping goods entirely, they are for increasing friction because the resources you spend smuggling are resources not spent growing
People fundamentally don't understand the purpose of a sanction. Sanctions are not to stop the war now, although they do damage Russia, the real goal of a sanction is long term economic damage to permanently shrink their economic growth on the timescale of decades.
The sanction is basically saying "okay, you're a threat to me today, and maybe I can't do much about it now, but I will shrink you and outgrow you so in 50-100 years you are no longer a threat to me at all". It is a long term play.
The Russians claim they shoot down Ukrainian aircraft the moment the missile leaves the tube, but we're supposed to believe they shot down two Black Hawks on Tuesday and only announced it after Ukraine leaked Black Hawk footage on Friday. These Black Hawks join the 650 F-16s and 450,000 M777s Russia has 'destroyed.'
GUYS. I AM GOING TO POST A VIDEO WHERE I WILL BLUR THE UNIT LOGOS TO SHIT SO NOBODY CAN TELL I STOLE THE VIDEOS FROM THE ARCHIVE AND THEN POST IT TO THE INTERNET SAYING I KILLED ALL THE SPECIAL FORCES
And then media outlets and super smart think tank people all over the world will believe me for some reason and then everyone will be like omg all the special forces died.
Guys I took my division and charged them into combat and while we lost 50% of our armored vehicles and 45% of our infantry are dead, and several of our HQs were destroyed and most of our best officers are dead, we captured a village where 200 once lived so we’re winning the war.
Tomorrow we will send our next division to assault the next village. That one had a population of 1200. Its actually considered a huge city, when you think about it. If we can capture that, we will send our third division to capture the hamlet behind it.
I wrote 2 years ago about why I was worried about Molniya drones. They are long range and capable of very large warheads. For whatever reason they were oddly scarce for a while, but they have become very common items on the battlefield and exactly everything I feared.
They can destroy a house in a single hit. Even small concrete buildings. They can dive straight down into dugouts, fly along trenches and fly into bunkers. They are being used to target infantry now, too. Russia clearly has a lot of them and are using them to destroy things that used to require helicopters.
They cost around $1000 each, roughly 2x a base level drone or roughly the same price as a higher end fpv drone. But they can carry a 6-7kg bomb and can fly over 40km.