Thomas C. Theiner Profile picture
Aug 2 โ€ข 6 tweets โ€ข 2 min read
NATO's role in Kosovo - a short thread ๐Ÿงต:

On 10 June 1999 the UNSC adopted Resolution 1244, which tasked NATO to enter Kosovo & establish a peacekeeping mission with the duties of:

โ€ข deterring renewed hostilities
โ€ข maintaining & where necessary enforcing a ceasefire

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โ€ข ensuring the withdrawal & preventing the return into Kosovo of (Yugoslav) Federal & Republic military, police & paramilitary forces

russia voted Yes & Yugoslavia accepted.

50,000 troops from ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ด๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ด๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡น entered Kosovo 2 days later.

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All NATO members' parliaments repeatedly voted to support KFOR, which is operationally assigned to NATO's Joint Forces Command (JFC) Naples.

Therefore talk of "NATO can't intervene if Serbia invades Kosovo unless member parliaments vote for it" is factually wrong.

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A Serbian invasion of Kosovo would instantly trigger a NATO response as UNSC 1244 gives NATO free reign to defeat a Serbian invasion.

NATO members Italy and the US have two airborne brigades and three fighter wings, which JFC-Naples can deploy without any consultations.

4/n
And if needed NATO's SACEUR can also activate NATO's Response Force to reinforce KFOR.

There is no political process required to trigger a NATO response. We're past that. Only for NATO attacks INSIDE Serbia a political process is required.

Kosovo is a NATO protectorate &

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as long as UNSC 1244 is in force Serbia sending its army into Kosovo would result in the quickest and most humiliating defeat of a russian equipped military in history.

6/end

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More from @noclador

Aug 1
I think last evening Serbia's General Staff officers explained to President Vuฤiฤ‡ that if he orders to attack Kosovo NATO fighter jets would appear over Serbian forces within hours and start bombing them... and within 48 hours the US Army's 173rd Airborne Brigade would be
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airlifted to Pristina Airport and the Italian Army's Paratropers Brigade "Folgore" airlifted to Gjakova Airport (which Italy's military built for this purpose).
Followed a day later by the Italian Army's Mechanized Brigade "Pinerolo", which is based in and around Bari, and
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would be shipped by the Italian Navy's 3rd Naval Division with its amphibious ships from Brindisi to Durrรซs within 2 days. From Durrรซs to Mitrovicia the Pinerolo's wheeled Freccia IFVs and Centauro tank destroyers need 6 hours thanks to the Western co-financed A1 highway.
3/4 Image
Read 4 tweets
Jul 30
Olenivka POW massacre thread ๐Ÿงต:

1) it wasn't a GMLRS rocket
2) it was a thermobaric weapon
3) russia staged it and did so (as usual) incompetently

Firstly: keeping POWs so close to the front violates Article 19 of the Third Geneva Convention making it a war crime.

1/n
Secondly: Olenivka is about 15 km from the frontline. Striking a target so close to the front with sparse and expensive long-range GMLRS rockets, when one could use 105 mm artillery rounds that cost around 0.4% of a GMLRS rocket makes no sense.

2/n
Thirdly: Olenivka has been a well known DNR POW and concentration camp for years (and a penal colony for decades). So much so that the wives of the POWs knew about it. One needs to be a delusional russian troll or propagandist to believe Ukraine would strike this target.

3/n
Read 15 tweets
Jul 30
There is a lot of debate about this video as it is unclear what weapon was used... it could even have been the first use of an autonomously operating loitering munition.

The tank was definitely hit by an explosively formed penetrator (EFP) fired by a top-attack weapon.
1/4
The weapon's trajectory rules out howitzer fired systems like SADARM, SMArt or Bonus. It's also not an anti-tank guided missile as it flies too slow and is too high above the target for an NLAW or BGM-71F TOW. The initial suspect, a M93 wide area mine doesn't fly this far.
2/4
This leaves a not publicly disclosed loitering munition carrying an EFP forming submunition.

As such submunitions scan for and attack targets fully autonomously this undisclosed loitering munition can likely be programmed to patrol an area and will automatically attack enemy
3/4
Read 4 tweets
Jul 29
A deeper dive into this munition:

The trajectory and the top attack mode point to a US Army M93 Hornet wide-area anti-tank mine (or its russian copy PTKM-1R)... but the distance the munition flies seems to be more than 100m. It is not an BGM-71F TOW as it flies too slow for
an ATGM and so far no country has announced that it deliverd TOW missiles to Ukraine.

Another possibility is an undisclosed loitering munition that has an EFP warhead... or it is a XM204 wide-area top attack mine that the US Army is currently introducing to replace the M93.
2/2
PS: definitely not a SMArt or Bonus round as the trajectory or these two systems is different from the one we see here.
Read 4 tweets
Jul 24
People on here still repeat the nonsense that russia's Tornado-S is a better system than M142 HIMARS... based on the two system's @Wikipedia articles...

1) All russian weapon stats are lies.
2) All russian weapon stats are lies.
3) All russian weapon stats are lies.

1/4 ImageImage
I will use an example with random numbers to give you an idea how russian military weapon stats come to be:

1) russia's defense industry comes up with a new weapon system - real range: 80 km, real accuracy: can hit a football field 50% of the time.
2) they report this to the
2/4
Kremlin as: range: 100 km, accuracy: can hit a football field penalty area 80% of the time.
3) Kremlin releases that as: range: 120 km, accuracy: can hit a football field goal area 100% of the time.
4) russian propaganda news then turns this into: range: 160 km,

3/4
Read 4 tweets
Jul 15
The F-15C is a pure air-superiority fighter... can do nothing else.

On 27 April 2022 the last of the 24 F-15C of the 493rd Fighter Squadron at RAF Lakenheath were sent back to the US to replace the oldest fighters in the six Air National Guard squadrons flying the F-15C.

1/5
The US Air Force doesn't publish its fighter inventory, but the assumption is that ~ 235 F-15C/D remain in flying condition:

โ€ข 6 ANG squadrons with 144 fighters
โ€ข 2 PACAF squadrons with 48 fighters in Japan
โ€ข some F-15 at the 85th & the 419th Test & Evaluation squadrons

2/5
โ€ข and some with the 550th Fighter Squadron, which is the F-15C/D training squadron

So far only one F-15EX, which will replace the F-15C/D, has been delivered. So I doubt Ukraine can pry even one F-15C or F-15D out of the US Air Force.

As for the F-15E: the USAF bought 236
3/5
Read 5 tweets

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