Ben Casselman Profile picture
Aug 2 4 tweets 2 min read
Job openings fell by more than 600,000 in June, the largest one-month decline on record, outside of the two months at the start of the pandemic. #JOLTS
nytimes.com/2022/08/02/bus… Image
Still, the job market remains strong by most standards. 10.7 million would have been far and away a record before the pandemic. And there are still 1.8 job openings for every unemployed worker (down from 2 back in March). Image
Layoffs remain near record lows (though data only goes back about 20 years). No sign of the uptick that we've seen in the weekly unemployment claims data. Image
The "great resignation" (not a term I like) has ebbed a bit, but it hasn't stopped. There were 4.2 million voluntary quits in June, down from a peak of 4.5 million last fall.
Remember that most people quitting their jobs are going to OTHER jobs, not stopping work altogether. Image

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More from @bencasselman

Aug 5
Charts thread!
First up: Pretty much everyone expected job growth to slow in July. Instead, it accelerated. Employers added 528k jobs last month, the most since February. June also revised up. We've averaged more than 400k jobs/month over the past three months. Image
Payroll employment has now surpassed its prepandemic level -- although it's still well below where it would be had the pre-Covid rate of job growth continued unabated. Image
The unemployment rate fell to 3.5% in July, back to its prepandemic level -- which was itself a 50-year low. Remarkably rapid recovery given how high unemployment got early in the pandemic. ImageImage
Read 8 tweets
Aug 5
U.S. employers added 528k jobs in July, far more than expected. The unemployment rate fell to 3.5%, matching its prepandemic level (a 50-year low).
Data: bls.gov/news.release/e…
Full coverage: nytimes.com/live/2022/08/0…
June revised up by 26k to +398,000.
Average earnings rose 15 cents per hour, or 0.5%, in July. Up 5.2% over the past year. Those figures are not adjusted for inflation, of course.
Read 7 tweets
Aug 5
Americans are worried about inflation, pessimistic about the economy and upset about the way their leaders are handling it all. But they still feel pretty good about the job market.
The latest from our survey with @MomentiveAI:
nytimes.com/2022/08/05/bus…
52% of Americans say it is a good (either “very” or “somewhat”) time to find a job right now, vs just 11% who say it is a bad time.
56% say the job market is more favorable to employees than employees. 51% say they think that will be the case six months from now.
For all the recession talk, most people aren’t yet worried about it losing their jobs. 44% say they are somewhat or very concerned about themselves or someone in their household getting laid off. That’s up from 37% on the eve of the pandemic.
Read 7 tweets
Jul 28
U.S. gross domestic product, adjusted for inflation, fell 0.2% (-0.9% annualized) in the second quarter, the second consecutive decline.
Full coverage:
nytimes.com/live/2022/07/2…
Despite the modestly better headline, underlying measures of growth were slower in the second quarter than the first. Domestic demand was negative (vs positive in Q1), consumer spending was positive (+1% annualized) but slower.
Inventories subtracted fully 2 percentage points off Q2 growth. But in contrast to last quarter, when it was a big drag, trade added 1.4 percentage points.
Read 6 tweets
Jul 27
Given all the discussion this week, I thought it'd be interesting to look back at the one example we have of a two-quarter contraction in G.D.P. that was *not* labeled a recession by NBER: Q2 and Q3, 1947.
Two caveats: First, remember that we *do not know* whether we're currently in a two-quarter contraction. The GDP data released tomorrow will be preliminary, and it remains quite possible (even likely) that Q1 will be revised to positive.
More on that here:
Second, 1947 is the very beginning of the official quarterly GDP data, which makes it a bit tricky to interpret. And of course, the U.S. economy has changed a lot since then, so these comparisons only take us so far.
Still, it's our one example, so it's worth looking at.
Read 11 tweets
Jul 27
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 0.75 percentage points for the second straight meeting as policymakers try to bring inflation under control.
Full coverage:
nytimes.com/live/2022/07/2…
Statement notes that "recent indicators of spending and production have softened" but that "job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low."
Fed statement: "Inflation remains elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher food and energy prices, and broader price pressures." (Language same as last statement except for adding a reference to food prices.)
Read 19 tweets

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