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Aug 2 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
The 4 mysteries of Pelosi's Taiwan trip. #1. Why did the Pentagon take three months to figure out that a trip by the House speaker to Taiwan was “not a good idea”? It’s not as if relations between the US and China took a turn for the worse only a week ago: bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
Mystery #2. Why, when they already have their hands full with the Russian invasion of Ukraine, would Biden’s national security team want a repeat of the 1996 experience? bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
Mystery #3. How ignorant of history do you have to be not to see Xi’s urgent need for a new source of legitimacy for the CCP, now that economic growth can no longer provide it? bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
Mystery #4. Why is a Democratic administration on a collision course that its predecessor would never have risked? bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
Trump liked to point to one of his Sharpies and say, “This is Taiwan,” then point to the Resolute desk in the Oval Office and say, “This is China. ... Taiwan is like two feet from China. We are 8,000 miles away. If they invade, there isn’t a f***ing thing we can do about it.”

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More from @nfergus

Niall Ferguson Profile picture
May 20
I disbelieve in both cycles of history and ends of history. History is the interaction of many complex systems. There are certain long-run processes punctuated by disasters, which are either randomly distributed or follow a power law. 1/5 bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
Russia’s war in Ukraine can be enough to trigger a "conflict avalanche." A belated tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve inflicts a sort of regime change not only on US households and businesses, but on the rest of the world, too. 2/5 bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
The historical period all this most closely resembles is the 1970s. Then, as now, errors of monetary and fiscal policy dislodged inflationary expectations. Then, as now, a war (Yom Kippur War of 1973) made matters worse. 3/5 bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
Read 5 tweets
Niall Ferguson Profile picture
Apr 16
"When some leaders ask me what weapons I need, I need a moment to calm myself, because I already told them the week before. It’s Groundhog Day. I feel like Bill Murray." We are receiving a masterclass in 21st-century leadership. And this is what he needs. theatlantic.com/international/…
"It's the North Korean virus. People are getting absolutely vertical integrated messages. People ... live in it. ... Putin has invited people into this information bunker, so to speak, without their knowledge, and they live there. It is, as the Beatles sang, a yellow submarine."
Too many Ukrainians, Zelensky told us, died not in battle, but "in the act of torture." Children got frostbite hiding in cellars; women were raped; elderly people died of starvation; pedestrians were shot down in the street. "How will these people be able to enjoy the victory?"
Read 4 tweets
Niall Ferguson Profile picture
Apr 3
Is it 1973 or 1939? If China were to launch an invasion of Taiwan next year, and war were to break out between Iran and its regional foes, then we might well have to start talking about World War III, rather than Cold War II. bloomberg.com/opinion/articl… 1/8
Even now, after five weeks of war notable for the heroic success of the Ukrainian defenders against the Russian invaders, I still cannot quite rid myself of the uneasy feeling that this is merely the opening act of a much larger tragedy. bloomberg.com/opinion/articl… 2/8
The last time I was in Kyiv, in September last year, I made a bet with @sapinker that "by the end this decade, Dec. 31, 2029, a conventional or nuclear war will claim at least a million lives." bloomberg.com/opinion/articl… 3/8
Read 8 tweets
Niall Ferguson Profile picture
Mar 11
A week is a long time in war. Here are the latest answers to my 7 questions. 1.Do the Russians manage to take Kyiv and Zelensky in a matter of weeks or never?
a.Not enough Western media attention is being paid to Russian gains, especially in the south.
2.Do the sanctions precipitate such a severe economic contraction in Russia that Putin cannot achieve victory?
a.The measures taken are financially disruptive but fall short of what is needed to bring the Russian war machine to a halt.
3.Does the combination of military and economic crisis precipitate a palace coup against him?
a.The Biden administration seems to be betting on regime change in Moscow. I wouldn’t hold my breath.
Read 8 tweets
Niall Ferguson Profile picture
Mar 9
My seven questions about the war (and the article which answers them): 1. Do the Russians manage to take Kyiv in a matter of two, three, four weeks or never? bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
2. Do the sanctions precipitate such a severe economic contraction in Russia that Putin cannot achieve victory? bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
3. Does the combination of military and economic crisis precipitate a palace coup against Putin? bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
Read 7 tweets
Niall Ferguson Profile picture
Feb 10
After Putin's menacing speech at the 2007 Munich Security Conference, when he attacked the "unipolar order" dominated by the United States, Angela Merkel was publicly impassive. Backstage, her comment was: "Cool speech!" ("geile Rede!").
I was sitting next to John McCain, who was so infuriated by the speech that he wanted to throw together an impromptu conference to respond. Mindful of his presidential ambitions, we persuaded him not to shoot from the hip. I rather regret that now.
Fast forward to 2012 and @BarackObama, who of course had defeated McCain, mocked @MittRomney: "When you were asked, what's the biggest geopolitical threat facing America, you said 'Russia.' And the 1980s are now calling to ask for their foreign policy back."
Read 5 tweets

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