Thread by @tequieremos

China has not fought a major war in the last 40 years. Yet the most exceptional trigger for a war involving China is Taiwan. Despite all his power, President Xi Jinping, could be removed if he is perceived to be weak on Taiwan. Why is Taiwan so fundamental to China?

THREAD

There is a very simple explanation. Every Chinese knows the century of humiliation that China suffered from Opium War to 1949. Nearly all historical vestiges of this century of humiliation have been removed or resolved, including Hong Kong and Macau.

Only one remains: Taiwan.

Taiwan was Chinese territory until China was forced to hand it to Japan after the humiliating defeat in the Sino-Japanese War of 1894–1895. The Chinese have been betrayed by the Western powers several times on Taiwan. At the end of World War 1, Chinese were given assurances...

..from America and the British that Taiwan would be returned to China at the Versailles Peace Conference. As Rana Mitter reports: “Under the treaty of Versailles, Germany had to give up its territories on Chinese soil, along with all its other colonies around the world.

The Chinese assumed that the territories would be restored to the young republic, as a reward for efforts of the nearly 100,000 Chinese workers who had been sent to the Western Front in Europe to assist the British and French. But the territories were awarded instead to Japan.

The Western Allies turned out to have made simultaneous secret agreements with both China and Japan in order to bring them both in on the Allied side.”

China felt enormously deceived by the West. Massive protests that broke out on May 4, 1919. The May Fourth Movement holds a...

.special place in Chinese memories. Any move by America or any other Western power to support, directly or indirectly, the secession of Taiwan from China brings back this historical memory. It provokes a strong, powerful, and virulent national reaction from China.

America cannot claim that it doesn’t understand the significance of Taiwan. It was clearly the hottest issue to resolve when Nixon and Kissinger began the process of reconciliation with China. The 1972 joint communique clearly stated that Taiwan and China belonged to one country:

The US side declared: “United States acknowledges that all Chinese on either side of the Taiwan Strait maintain there is but one China and that Taiwan is a part of China. The US govt does not challenge that position. It reaffirms its interest in a peaceful settlement of the..

..Taiwan question by the Chinese themselves”.

With regards to Nancy Pelosi's visit, many Americans naturally believe that the US is supporting Taiwan because it is the main guarantor against an outright military invasion of Taiwan. This is true. Yet it is also true that it is...

..the people of Taiwan who will suffer if American actions provoke military responses from China. If America’s goals on Taiwan are truly noble, if it wants to protect the Taiwanese people, and if, in long run, America wants to see the gradual emergence of a democratic China...

it should allow the continuation of the only democratically run Chinese society in the world, which is Taiwan. (Note: Singapore does not qualify for this description since it is a multiethnic society, not a Chinese society.) The best way to preserve the democratic system in...

Taiwan is for America to leave Taiwan alone. It should also forcefully indicate that it will not support Taiwanese independence. This is the tough love message that President George W. Bush sent to the then Taiwanese leader, Chen Shui-bian, who was flirting with independence.

It is truly remarkable that all the recent govt's in China have gone out of their way to both increase and facilitate greater contact between the mainland and Taiwan. As recently as 2008, there were 188,744 Taiwanese tourists visiting China and 329,204 Chinese tourists visiting..

China and 329,204 Chinese tourists visiting Taiwan. When relations between China and Taiwan improved from 2008 to 2016, the numbers increased significantly to 3.6 million Taiwanese tourists in 2016 and a peak of 4.18 million Chinese tourists in 2015.

If the US want to understand how relatively enlightened Chinese policies toward Taiwan have been, they should compare them with US policies towards Cuba. No US president had the courage to meet Fidel Castro. By contrast, Xi met President Ma Ying-jeou in Singapore in 2015.

Reference:

“Has China Won? The Chinese Challenge to American Primacy” by Kishore Mahbubani