Ethan Mollick Profile picture
Aug 2 5 tweets 2 min read
Three dangers of trying to learn lessons from ultra-successful people:

The first is survivorship bias. The press generally covers successes, not failures. We draw biased conclusions from only looking at winners, but not seeing the losers. It happens even when we know better! 1/3
Second is "superstitious learning,” where we learn the wrong things. When lessons aren’t clear, or the market is changing, people tend to copy visible aspects of successful folks (eg requiring memos before meetings, like Amazon does), but those are not the reason for success. 2/3
Third, even if you are getting accurate stories of why someone succeeded, we actually have trouble learning from successes. It is hard to apply the lessons from the stories of people who won to our own situation. Instead, we often learn more from stories of other’s failure! 3/3
A fourth terrific reason to avoid trying to learn too much from the ultra-successful
And, of course, the fifth reason: even if something worked for a particular person in a particular circumstance at a particular time, it may not generalize or be robust to other circumstances.

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More from @emollick

Aug 2
I created all the graphs in this viral thread within a day of first using MidJourney, a DALL-E-like AI image generation system.

I think the technology is transformative to how we relate to art and design. Everyone should try it. Here is a thread on how to, in under 10 minutes🧵
Setup is easy. You can create a a bunch of images for free on MidJourney, and anyone can get access here: midjourney.com

You use it by communicating with a bot, on Discord. Here is a guide to Discord: pcworld.com/article/540080…

Then all you need to do is type /imagine
Now, you can tell MidJourney what to do to improve the images (or try again).

The four images are numbered going clockwise from the upper left. To get a variation on one you like, select "V1" (or V2, V3, or V4), to get a high resolution copy, select "U1" (or U2, U3, or U4).
Read 5 tweets
Jul 27
Data visualization inspiration thanks to DALL-E: how Rothko, Basquiat, Picasso, and Monet would create an academic chart. ImageImageImageImage
A few more sources of data visualization inspiration: Bar charts as stained glass in an old cathedral. As a page from the Voynich Manuscript. As ancient stone monoliths on a grassy plain. Made of great columns of fire in the sky at the end of the world. cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/10… ImageImageImageImage
Bar charts made out of cake. In the style of Klimpt. As a Persian rug. Out of writhing tentacles. ImageImageImageImage
Read 13 tweets
Jul 26
In case humanity really messes up, you should know we learned a dangerous species of deep sea cannibal squid is talking with each other in a kind of language ("indicative of semanticity and discreteness") using the patterns & bioluminescence on their skin. pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pn…
On the other hand, we shouldn’t worry about the squid since humans are only alive because spiders choose to let us live.
🕷️One ton of spiders can eat a human in a day
🕷️The Earth has 29M tons of spiders
∴ spiders could eat 10.6 billion people a year
The world population is 8B
Spiders are scarier than Tyrannosaurus Rexes.

Just the spiders alive today could eat every every human ever born (113 billion) in less than a decade.

There were 20k 🦖 on Earth at any time. It would take the entire population of 🦖 2,825 years to eat every human who ever lived.
Read 7 tweets
Jul 26
“People stay poor because they lack opportunity. It is not their intrinsic characteristics that trap people in poverty but rather their circumstances.” A large-scale study in Bangladesh shows passing a threshold of assets allows families to escape poverty. nber.org/papers/w29340
The study looked at a program that gave very poor women cows. But that wasn't enough alone, without complimentary assets (like a cart), women fell back into poverty. But if households had $16 per person in assets to buy a plow or cart, they leveraged the cow & had growing success
For the graph, the key is diagonal line - do assets go up or down from initial wealth over time? (The treatment includes the cow’s value) Below the line is a descent into more poverty (lower assets 5 years later), above or on is assets going up or stating steady. The note is mine
Read 4 tweets
Jul 22
We need more benign mysteries in our lives - they make you more creative. Curiosity makes you consider many options & hypotheses as you explore, prompting an internal brainstorming session!

So how do you add more good weirdness to your internet life? Here is a 🧵 of ways! 1/
⁉️Wikenigma: What if there was a Wikipedia for things we don’t know?

That’s Wikenigma, which only has topics where the answer is unknown. There’s lots of cool stuff: we don't actually understand why moths like light, or the origin of “abracadabra.” 2/ wikenigma.org.uk/a-z_listing
Weird search engines:
🔎Marginalia: a search engine for less relevant results: search.marginalia.nu
🔎Million Short: excludes the top million results: millionshort.com
🔎Oldaviata: only searches the old web, like tripod & geocities: oldavista.com 3/
Read 5 tweets
Jul 21
Want to make people around you happy? Here are simple things that cause happiness, but that we don’t do enough as we wrongly think they will be awkward & not appreciated. 🧵

🙏🏻People appreciate gratitude MUCH more than the giver expects & it is less awkward to give than expected ImageImage
🤝When a person needs help & all someone can do is provide a little assistance, rather than solving the entire problem, the helper is often reluctant to do anything because they think partial help will not be valued. But people really appreciate getting partial help! ImageImage
We assume that people we are talking to don’t want to have serious conversations. But people overestimate how awkward these deep conversations will be & thus avoid them. But most people prefer deeper talk, and when they realize others like it too, they create better relationships ImageImageImage
Read 5 tweets

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