Garry Kasparov Profile picture
Aug 3, 2022 10 tweets 3 min read Read on X
Belated consensus that Putin's Russia is a fascist state. I warned about this explicitly in 2014 and in Winter Is Coming. The shift from "rational authoritarianism" to a personality cult, need for enemies, and victimization was clear. economist.com/briefing/2022/…
In my 2015 book, I cited Paxton's definition of fascism and said it looked like Putin used it as a to-do list. And so it was and so it is. It doesn't end. The Economist: "Expansion is in its nature. It will seek to expand both geographically and into people’s private lives."
The point free world leaders most needed to understand was the shift from Putin needing friends to needing enemies. They kept acting like he would return to civilized behavior, to normalize Russia as a nation. But fascism is a one-way street.
As soon as Putin consolidated complete control in Russia, as soon as he was sure he would no longer face international pressure on human rights, he steadily pivoted to overt fascism. Enemies internal and external, religion, propaganda of death and hatred. War was inevitable.
As I wrote, as documented by generations of historians, despotic regimes inevitably run out of excuses for why the lot of the people has not improved under their eternal rule. Their answer is repression and war. New enemies, new scapegoats. Putin is no different.
Russia must not only be cleansed of Putin, but Putinism. Russians must face defeat and reality, see what horrors are being done in their name, with their apathy and support. As always with facing down a dictator, it will not be easy, but it will only be harder tomorrow.
The West was content to let Putin destroy Russia as long as the gas, oil, and cash were flowing to them. But now he is slaughtering Ukrainians and trying to call it self-defense, to annex sovereign territory. It must not be allowed or it will not stop.
Putin's war could have been stopped when it started in 2014. Now the West is responding more like it should have then. But unless more is done quickly to help Ukraine win, the same cycle will repeat. It's not enough for Russia not to win. Ukraine must win.
Read The Economist article if you deem me "too emotional," as I was called for saying the same things in 2014. A little more emotion would have helped the world push back then. More anger, more fear of what would come. economist.com/briefing/2022/…
As went the joke I heard in Ukraine in Dec 2014, a Russian calls a Jewish Ukrainian friend: “Moishe, is it true your country has been taken over by Nazis and fascists?” “Yes,” his friend replies, “our synagogue is full of them!” But now the real fascists are revealed. Fight.

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More from @Kasparov63

Feb 2
Trump isn’t being fooled by Putin. He doesn’t trust him or believe him. It’s worse. He agrees with him. Trump wants what Putin wants, envies what Putin has, and is imitating Putin’s transformation of Russia into a dictatorship.
Any help the Trump admin provides Ukraine will be happen only if it is overwhelmingly in Trump's personal interest, like everything else he does. Congress locking down his agenda until he restarts US aid to Ukraine and applies strong sanctions on Russia, for example.
Support for Ukraine is popular with Americans, even Republicans, but Trump doesn’t budge on this issue, loyal to Putin since 2016 despite Putin spitting in his face repeatedly. Unfortunately, the GOP won’t challenge Trump on this or anything else.
Read 5 tweets
Jan 24
Yes, as I wrote in my "Putinization of America" articles in the Atlantic. ICE is Trump's Rosgvardia, given impunity (or "total immunity" in Vance's words) for loyalty to Trump personally. Encouraged to violate the law, then told they'll be punished only if MAGA loses power, etc.
"This is why the resistance must center the principles at stake. Does America have rule of law or not? The first line in defense of an incipient police state is: “You don’t have anything to fear if you’ve done nothing wrong.” This fallacy is soon replaced by: “It could happen to anybody,” as the regime sees the value of using arbitrary persecution to spread fear. Again, fear is the autocrat’s goal, as is simply doing many things every day. Even if you don’t like him or his policies, the longer he is there, doing things, the more the autocrat starts to feel inevitable, like the sun rising each morning.

In politics, as in physics, force is mass times acceleration. The administration is mounting a barrage of attacks, with great urgency, to break through the resistance of American legal structures, sometimes by using legal and relatively popular policies (deporting convicted criminals, for example) as cover for likely illegal and relatively unpopular policies (deporting immigrants without due process). The fabricated urgency is a tell: No war, no terrible crisis, compels the president to violate the Constitution. But the administration is breaking down norms and setting precedents faster than judges can stop it. Of course, ignoring judges is also part of the plan."

theatlantic.com/international/…
Also, in my Next Move substack in July, more specifically: "In 2016, Vladimir Putin created Rosgvardiya—a new, militarized domestic law enforcement apparatus. Russia had no shortage of police agencies; it inherited several from the Soviet Union, including the Ministry of Internal Affairs (MVD). So what made Rosgvardiya different? It operated directly under Putin’s authority.

Unlike Putin and Rosgvardiya, Trump did not create ICE. However, the 50% boost in ICE’s ranks that Trump is pursuing under OBBBA would change the face of any agency. Now that Gavin Newsom has taken Trump to court over the latter’s deployment of the California National Guard, the president is likely looking for more hassle-free and pliant institutions to do his bidding, and ICE could be the perfect outlet for those ambitions. If nothing else, ICE’s behavior in the past half year ought to make a dramatic expansion of the agency the object of intense public scrutiny."
thenextmove.org/p/dont-miss-th…
Read 4 tweets
Jan 24
Trying to predict the outrages of autocrats is hopeless because their superpower is to generate constant shocks to dominate the environment. But what’s happening in Minnesota is method, not madness. Trump wants violence, to radicalize & divide, to create pretext for crackdowns.
First, to claim only he can solve the crisis (that he is creating), a typical formula. Chaos & violence push people toward a "law and order" strongman. Also, as the midterms approach, the grounds must be prepared for interfering with the democratic process for "security" reasons.
Having lived through a similar, nationwide version of this in Trump's model, Putin's Russia, it’s not easy to fight against. And Trump and many of his gang have passed the point at which they feel they can afford to lose power, even in Congress. It’s a perilous moment.
Read 6 tweets
Jan 15
When you think of despots and media, it's often of Big Brother on every screen or Pravda publishing the party line. That may be how it ends, but that's not how it starts. Chilling effects, appeasement, producers and publishers toeing the line unquestioningly. My latest:
It's natural to question the source when something is published by an outlet known to be in the tank, or in the pocket, of a partisan owner. But when a previously respected outlet like CBS suddenly starts acting like a White House press shop, few are prepared.
As documented about the fall of Russia's free press, it doesn't all become Pravda overnight. Having nominally critical outlets support the regime in one specific way, or via a few specific people or shows, is more effective early on than blanket censorship or control.
Read 4 tweets
Jan 3
Maduro is a dictator who stayed in power by force after losing an election. No one who believes in democracy should mourn his fall. Trump's pretexts and potential geopolitical deals especially w Russia deserve scrutiny, but the Venezuelan people deserve a chance at freedom.
As with everything Trump does, his motivations will be about personal power and enrichment. This does not contradict that Maduro was an illegitimate thug allied with others like him. However his removal was arranged (deal?) it shakes the global forces of dictatorship.
Condemning a nation's people to authoritarianism and repression because of potential bad outcomes after the fall of their dictator is a free world observer's luxury. Democracy and prosperity can never be guaranteed, but the opportunities for them should be promoted.
Read 4 tweets
Jan 2
🎯 Mamdani's "warmth of collectivism" line, naive or ominous or both, is becoming a teachable moment. It would be nice if people would learn about the bitter realities of socialism this way instead of the hard way of living through it.
As I explained back when it was Bernie Sanders saying similar things & was defended in similar ways, it's not a matter of rhetoric or intentions. Obv they aren't Mao, it's not the USSR, etc. It's what people in power with a collectivist mindset do when things don't go well.
If the economy does poorly, do they admit error and ease off, try other methods, etc? Or do they invent scapegoats and insist that the system will work if they have more (and more) authority to enforce compliance? We know the answer from history.
Read 5 tweets

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