Alexander Stahel 🌻 Profile picture
Aug 3, 2022 30 tweets 11 min read Read on X
Let's talk European electricity, shall we?

Thread
Part I (of many more to come); 1/n
European electricity prices are spiking for all major economies except for Spain. But also Spanish consumers pay 3x more compared with only May 2021.

2/n Image
In fact, most European power prices are 12-15x higher than they were in 2015. Needless to say, the European industry will go into a deep recession at these prices.

3/n Image
All commodities price at the margin. So do electricity prices. As the EU grid enters an unprecedented phase of change, away from dispatchable baseload power such as nuclear or coal fired power towards Renewable Energy Sources, more price volatility is the only certainty.

4/n Image
But why are prices high now? Because the EU grid needs a lot of gas. In 2021, 17.3% of Europe’s 3,100 terawatt-hours (for comp: US 3,900TWh) of power production came from gas-fired plants. Gas derived power production is the 2nd biggest energy contributor to the EU grid.

5/n Image
In other words, EU gas prices set the marginal price for electricity. Therefore, higher EU gas prices also drag up electricity prices.

6/n Image
Meanwhile (and as most of you know), EU gas is in short supply as Russia cut gas by some 41% YTD when compared with 2021 (more vs 2019). Worse, since July Russia, cut Nord Stream 1 supplies to 30mcm/d (vs. 160mcm/d capacity). That caused gas prices to spike.

7/n Image
European gas prices don't like it when the largest supplier Gazprom (200bcm of a 500bcm market pa in 2019) does not deliver. Hence, prices have NEVER been higher in recorded history at this time of the season, that is higher by a factor of 10 times!

8/n Image
You guessed it: coal-fired production will have to replace gas. Subject to coal’s import availability, coal may set the price of electricity as the new marginally dispatched (demanded) atom of the grid. Yes, coal is well & alive. Hydrocarbons = modern life!

9/n Image
Meanwhile, EU coal prices are more expensive than at any time in recorded history too (25y) as Europe scrambles to replace 58 million tonnes pa of thermal coal it mustn’t source from Russia while coal production came rather unfashionable for the past decade (green shift).

10/n Image
As is nuclear electricity production. And so slow & steady brain drain from this industry has remifications too. Take France. It's nukes produce 30-40% below its 10-year averages. Given it's overall importance for the EU grid, that is rather concerning...

11/n Image
…and which is the main reason why French peak load power prices for December 2022 are at €2037/MWh - another all time record!

You see, this entire green shift has consequences which 99% of consumers NOT YET understand. But they will, sooner or later.

12/n Image
Can EDF, the French operator, fix the maintenance issues? I think so. The thing is: the French state company has a habit of over-promising and under-delivering. Time will tell.

Allez les bleues!

13/n Image
Fact is, between 2014-2016, France - 2nd largest grid in EU by a wide margin - didn’t import power on a single day.

Last year however, it bought electricity from overseas for 78 days. So far this year, it has been forced to do so on a record 102 days.

14/n Image
Which brings us to the German grid, Europe's largest.

Can they help France? Unlikely. In fact, they may need help too if the Gov want to save gas in power AND shut-down its nukes by y-end (currently re-considered). Or can German coal save us from the risks in the winter?

15/n Image
Some basics first. GER coal power production has huge advantages. It provides dispatchable load while 100% of lignite is mined in G. That makes it the cheapest, most reliable electricity other than nuclear.

16/n Image
The Gov knows that. In July, minister Habeck issued an ordinance to return up to 16 coal- & oil-fired power plants to come out of the “grid reserve”. In addition, 8 hard coal & lignite power plant licenses are prolonged beyond Oct 2022 to help save natural gas. But can it?

17/n Image
However, so far in 2022 gas-fired power production continues unabated. Why?

18/n Image
Because switching from gas to coal on industrial scale cannot be easy. Some voices goes as far and say “only one of Germany’s 16 coal fired power plants will restart operations, and only this autumn.” I'm less sure but here are some of the challenges...

19/n Image
We took a closer look. First, most of German hard coal production (again, lignite is not imported), power or industrial use, has directly or indirectly access to German’s inland river system which transports most of its annual thermal coal imports of some 44 million tonnes.

20/n Image
The Rhine river alone transports some 75% of Germany’s hard coal imports due to its significant transportation cost advantages.

21/n Image
A modern Rhine coal barge carries 7kt of coal. At that load, it has a draught of >3 meters. We assume an avg power plant (100 – 1100 MW) requires 400 tonnes of feedstock per MWh of production. This would imply, say, EnBW requires 1-4 barges (class VIb) each day. Can it?

22/n ImageImage
Well, that comes down to weather. The ongoing heat wave has impacted Rhine water levels. Within 6 weeks, large parts of the Rhine river are well below the required 1.5 meter gauge level for a barge to transport at full capacity.

23/n Image
According to our calculations, as at 3/8/22, large parts of the middle & upper Rhine river only allow for limited coal loadings (1/3 or less beyond Kaub). Such conditions, while not infrequent, will draw emergency stocks at coal plants.

24/n Image
Kaub is the “bottleneck” gauge station of the Rhine river in Germany. It reached a new seasonal all time low (antoher one!) and is now well below the required 1.5 meters (150cm) for full loadings.

25/n Image
And its forecast? A shocker!

Kaub's 14-day forecast is for water levels to approach unsafe levels for transportation. Yes, we like to go the extra mile for you :-)...

26/n Image
Lower loadings mean higher rates for merchants to break even. At some point, such rates may make purchasing coal uneconomic or simply restrict power production as the required daily feedstock supplies cannot be delivered. Barging may also be stopped due to safety concerns.

27/n Image
In short, barging a tonne of coal to a power plant in GER reached €600. Meanwhile, Coal Importers forecast 30mt for 2022 & then some for 2023 while the brokers promise to transport "to it point of nautical-technical impossibility." I believe them.

28/n Image
But can they? Our assessment for theoretical annual coal shipping capacities is based on many assumptions but suggests 75 days of low water may reduce shipping capacities to 24 million tonnes pa in 2022. Rail will have to do the rest. Can it? We will see.

29/n Image
Meanwhile, other waterways have low water issues too.

Maybe the weather gods want to give green party members one more time to reflect why they want to replace the best nukes in Europe with coal, given EU commitments to reduce CO2 emissions to 0 by 2050?

30/n End - thx! Image

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More from @BurggrabenH

Sep 21
Pre-2020, Gold had one marginal buyer, that being gold-backed ETFs.

Today, gold has at least 3 marginal buyers that can overlap or alternate each other. They are:

- Gold backed Western ETFs (which buy, sell or hold based on US real rates);

- Central Banks seeking higher gold reserves (China; India; Thailand; Vietnam; Qatar, KSA or even Poland) for geopolitical & other reasons;

- Chinese & other Asian wholesale or retail market participants and professional speculators;

Who bought most last? India!

Why? The government cut import duties on gold by 9% at end of July, triggering a renewed surge in demand. “The impact of the duty cut was unprecedented, it was incredible,” said Philip Newman, managing director of Metals Focus in London. “It really brought consumers in.”

At least for now, there seems to be always somebody.

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Note however that Chinese retail buying has slowed down recently, as best illustrated by the Shanghai gold premium over international prices.

I will elaborate on the Chinese retail clients more soon.

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However, professional Chinese speculators have increased their futures positions somewhat again. Who is the better indicator of what comes next, retail or the pros? IDK

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In 2023, I said I will tweet less about oil and I will stick to this promise but today I make an exception and will break the promise as we enter a period of more volatility for oil...

So let's talk about OPEC and Saudi market share. It's decision making time.

1/n
Step by step:

The Saudis decided to keep oil from falling <$75 for 2y by cutting overproportionally in their OPEC+ quota context.

They have cap for 12mbpd but produce 9mbpd. It was 10.5mbpd in 2022. Pick a number but they are 15-20% below their fair share.

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Why did they do so?

Likely because of bad advisers. There is a whole crew of supply gloomers out there charging clients money to claim the Permian or US shale is about to roll over.

Well, it isn't.

3/n US weekly DOE crude oil Image
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Jun 18
Let me share some real time data on the EU natgas market that are hard to get.

European gas consumption for 28 countries matches last's years to the cubic meter (Oct 2022 - Oct 2023 = Year 2022).

However, consumption remains 17% below 2019/20 season.

Is there a supply issue? Rubbish. The global LNG market is oversupplied from every corner; EU storages will be filled by end of Aug where we sit. We have too much gas.

#TTF 1/4 (in mcm/day and YTD)Image
Three factors matter why there is less consumption vs 2019/20 season:

1) Milder weather: 70% of total consumption is temperature related. Temperatures are milder, thus Europe consumes 14% less vs 2019/20.

Is that permenant? It sure looks like a trend where I sit. But climate scientists can answer that best.

Households Consumption; 2/4Image
2) Less power generation: Europe replaces more and more natgas in the grid with solar & wind and in the case of France with better capacity utilisation of its nuclear fleet. That adds up...!

Selected Power Consumption: 7 countries; 3/4 Image
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Nvidia sold a lot of new AI chips over the past 18 months and is forecast to grow its unit sales aggressively.

But does everybody understand what such forecast would mean for electricity demand in the West?

A 🧵

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Step by step:

The average Swiss household consumes 4000-5000kWh of power pa. It is similar for most Western HH.

Let’s assume a 4-person household consumes 5000kWh per annum.

That translates into 570 Watt per hour (5000 x 1000 / 365 days / 24h)…

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The latest version of Nvidia’s processors for AI purposes is called H100 SXM.

How much power does it consume?

Answer: 700 Watt (per hour).

In other words, one processor will consume 20% more power than a 4-person household consumes pa!

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India likes a "GOOD" deal - also in crude oil - and is about to teach Russia a lesson what that means.

Spoiler 1: it's not a pretty one!
Spoiler 2: China & Turkey will learn quickly..!

Let's look at the Indian-Russo crude oil bromance.

1/x Thread
Before the invasion in Feb 2022, Russia exported some 2.8mbpd (55%) of its 5.5mbpd crude to Europe by way of pipeline (Druzhba) & sea transportation (seaborne).

But not just crude oil...

2/x Image
Russia also sold products such as diesel or jet to Europe for a total of 1.4mbpd in petroleum product exports.

In other worlds, G7 sanctioned as introduced in Dec 2022 required 4.2+mbpd of crude & products to be re-shuffeled in globally. Big numbers!

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For now, Red Sea disruptions due to Houthi attacking commercial vessels randomly remains a ton-mile story, not a crude oil story.

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1/5 Some high frequency data...!
Container Vessels owners have been the most consequent in diverting cargo.

Since Nov, the number of container vessels crossing the Suez Canal has collapsed by 80% in both directions.

2/n Image
Crude Oil tankers from the Middle East (Saudi Arabia; UAE; Iraq; Kuwait; Qatar or Oman) to Europe are also lower but our high frequency data does not yet show a similar collapse.

It also nicely illustrates how changing Russian crude flows (Urals diverted to India & China and away from Europe) have increased traffic through the Suez Canal - good for Egypt as Russian dark fleet vessels will or cannot seek an alternative route to ship oil from the Baltics to India.

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