Andrew Perpetua Profile picture
Aug 4, 2022 24 tweets 9 min read Read on X
My daily update! #urkdailyupdate

If you would like to view the the map: google.com/maps/d/u/0/edi…
Russia continues to shell the entire Kharkiv area, including the city itself. Russians in Kozacha Lopan are forcibly deporting Ukrainian citizens to Russia using the excuse of possible future Ukrainian attacks. Today Russia launched a failed assault into Dementiivka (1).
Russia has suffered absolutely huge losses attacking Dementiivka over the past few weeks, including losing large numbers of special forces from just about every branch of their armed forces, including brigade deputy commanders and chiefs of staff from the Spetsnaz.
In the Izyum area there have been semi-official statements from Ukraine talking about an ongoing offensive. This doesn’t necessarily represent a change in what is happening on the ground, but rather the confidence of various civilian leaders.
I believe Ukraine is actively attacking several towns at the moment, but I have very little news or facts so I cannot say anything more. Today Russia sent reconnaissance towards Mazanivka (2).
The Siversk area is primarily an ongoing artillery duel. Russia is trying to leverage their capture of Berestove to move west, but yesterday they were crushed trying to attack Ivano-Darivka and today they have been stopped in their tracks trying to move towards Vyimka (3).
The Bakhmut area has a lot of heavy ongoing fighting. Russia is trying to push north into Yakovlivka, but they are making little ground (4). There is heavy ongoing fighting around the Knauf Gips factory in Soledar (5). Russia is trying to attack towards Bakhmut from Pokrovske (6)
Russia has captured Vershyna and they are attacking Zaitseve from the east (7). Russia captured Semihirya and they are now attacking Kodema from the east (9). The attacks on Kodema from the north east (8) and south east (10) were both destroyed by Ukrainian artillery.
It is possible Russia captured Travneve today, but I could not find proof so I have left it contested. Russia may have also captured Bakhmutske (just south of Soledar), but I could not find proof so I did not change the map at all in that area.
In the Donetsk area there is heavy Russian artillery and large Russian assaults. Russia is attacking Krasnohorivka from two angles (11,12), but the attacks were repelled.
Russia is attacking Avdiivka from the south (13,14) but they are primarily focused on heavily bombarding Ukrainian defenses with the hope of turning them to rubble to assist future assaults.
Around Pisky, the Russian attack was halted (15) after Ukrainian reinforcements arrived. The reinforcements reportedly included both infantry and artillery.
In Marinka, Russia appears to have captured a significant amount of ground after extremely heavy shelling (16).
In the Hulyaipole/Velyka Novosilka area, Ukraine launched a small attack south from Neskuchne. I am not sure where they attacked, but I assume it would be Blahodatne (17). It is possible they are attacking Storozheve. It is unknown whether this attack was successful.
Russia attacked north towards Dorozhnyanka and Kostyantynivka (18) and there is ongoing fighting. Russia heavily shelled Kostyantynivka today.
In Zaporizhzhia Russia attacked Nesterianka (19) and towards Shcherbaky (20) and Stepove (21). There is ongoing fighting in all three directions.
Russia is moving a significant amount of equipment from Mariupol to Berdyansk (22).
In Rovzivka (23), Russians forced farmers to store their hay in a public area after forcibly taking their normal storage locations in order to store Russian weapons and vehicles. Today, Russia torched this stored hay.
In the Kherson area, Russian forces banned boats from going on the Dnipro River, apparently in fear of people sabotaging the bridges and barges.
Additionally, there was a weird story regarding Russia deploying Cechens to the left bank of the Dnipro river with the order to “at all costs to prevent an arbitrary abandonment of their positions by Russian servicemen".
This rumor is being spread by the Russians themselves, probably the FSB, with the purpose of telling Russian soldiers that they have no choice but to fight in Kherson. "You can rule by fear or you can rule by love." Basic mafia tactics. Al Capone could at least blame his syphilis
Tonight, Ukrainian forces reportedly fired HIMARS near the rail bridge that crosses the Dnipro river (24).
A Russian attack towards Bilohirka was repelled (25). Ukraine probably controls Bilohirka, but I have kept it contested for now.
See you tomorrow.

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More from @AndrewPerpetua

Jul 3
The United States government is built on the concept that Congressmen will have the swagger to take pride in their station. The government hinges on congress enforcing their will upon others. They are supposed to be arrogant sons of bitches who look down on others.
The moment you have a congress that is unwilling or incapable of being arrogant, condescending assholes and you instead have weak placating losers, the whole foundation of the government crumbles. The supreme arrogance of congress is what lets them reign in power of president.
Right now the US has the weakest congress in its history. A bunch of spineless losers who are incapable of even having independent thought. They are owned entirely by others, especially the republican party who bows to a president. Imagine, a CONGRESSMEN bowing to a PRESIDENT.
Read 7 tweets
Jun 23
A few areas where I have been focusing on geoing strikes on Russians positions lately have been interesting in that only a very tiny number of Russians are defending. In one area in particular, the video showed a drone scan a series of trenches where only four Russians were spotted. Two killed and two forced to flee. I wonder what is behind those Russians, and whether it is similarly a skeleton crew on defense. Also, these Russians were quite far from Ukrainian positions, so they were not some extremely advanced forward position, they seem to me to be the second and/or third line of defense, which are typically more heavily manned.
When I see video like this, from an area very far from offensive actions, where Russia is purely defending, it makes me wonder how different the war would be if Ukraine had the capacity to attack this location. I feel like if Ukraine were to attack and capture it, many people online would say the area doesn't matter because it is only advancing 1km or blah blah. But advancing 1km is important, because it forces Russians to divert resources away from attacking to defending. Or you will advance a second k, or a third km until such a point that the Russians are forced to defend.
There is an area where Ukraine has been slowly advancing in this manner. Nobody is really talking about it, because it isn't sexy. It doesn't impact any large battles, it isn't a sign of things to come, or anything else. It is just Ukraine taking advantage of Russia failing to adequately defend positions.
Read 5 tweets
May 23
Ukraine does not have an adequate air force, but it can create the effects of an air force using other methods and tools. For example, long-range drones can be deployed in a series of nested concentric circles to mine and harass supply roads, effectively cutting them off.

One layer of drones could strike targets 100 km out, the next at 80 km, then 60 km, 40 km, and finally, the remaining drones could dominate the last 20–30 km leading to the front.

With sufficient drone coverage density, the impact on enemy logistics can closely mirror that of a conventional air force—cutting off supplies and limiting troop movements.

Furthermore, the development of heavier strike drones, with payloads between 100 and 500 kg, can replicate the effects of traditional airstrikes. In conjunction with attack drones, this combination becomes a deadly one-two punch: attack drones locate and relay target positions, and heavier strike drones follow up with rapid and destructive precision.

Once the enemy's rear positions are degraded to this extent, the front becomes unsustainable. The opposing force will be forced to withdraw, regardless of intent.

Ukraine does not need large offensive pushes to defeat Russia. It needs extremely high-density drone coverage to deny Russian sustainment. Land can be taken back piece by piece, without committing to large and costly ground assaults.
All but the heavy strike drones can be done with the technology that Ukraine has available today, right now. The strike drones could be developed in short order. This is a realistic path to victory using the tools and resources available. And one which Europe could help using financing alone.
Europe could also provide longer range weapons for Ukraine’s existing aircraft, which is frankly a much more unrealistic path forward. Albeit possible. And Europe doesn’t really have the weapons available to give, so would require making them first.
Read 4 tweets
May 10
After Trump put Fedex guys in charge of USPS, the democrats should issue an official warning that any aspect of USPS that might get “privatized” under trump will be immediately seized, without compensation, by the following administration and congress.
There should be an open air understanding that any aspect of the government privatized by Trump will be seized back without compensation. We will eminent domain your ass, and change any law (or court makeup) to make it legal.
The property of the people isn’t for sale. That’s the message.
Read 4 tweets
May 3
The US saw Russia using nothing but golf carts and ladas in Ukraine and said fuck it, we're going on all in. We're cancelling all armor procurement. Battle golf carts are the future. Who needs firepower when you have bags of meat strapped to a go-cart?
Many Americans will die, and that is a sacrifice the Army is willing to make. Drive the golf cart full steam into a drone swarm. The guys in the back will have tons of ability to shoot back before they die, since there will be no walls or doors to get in the way.
All paths will be heavily mined, which is why we got rid of mraps. The mraps would just get disabled anyway, and then you'd be wishing you had a golf cart to ride. So, instead of wasting our time with armor, lets cut to the chase and deploy you on a golf cart from the start.
Read 5 tweets
May 1
Interesting uptick in Russian dive bomber drones recently. I've wondered why they were developed then suddenly disappeared. They always seemed the most effective type of drone.
Russians are using dive bombers to destroy vehicles. Much more efficient than suiciding the drone and deals the same damage.
Magyar used to use dive bombers to destroy tanks, but stopped for some reason.
Read 8 tweets

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