1/🧵
An innocent questioner came to me asking "Why do you start [see chart below] at 2021?"
And it stumped me. Because I've studied Steve Morgan's tweets enough to know he's touted "$3 trillion" since at least 2018.
So, why DID I start at 2021? Quite simply…
An innocent questioner came to me asking "Why do you start [see chart below] at 2021?"
And it stumped me. Because I've studied Steve Morgan's tweets enough to know he's touted "$3 trillion" since at least 2018.
So, why DID I start at 2021? Quite simply…
https://twitter.com/vmyths/status/1554832886196420611
2/🧵
…I had Morgan's more recent #guesstimates in front of me when I first decided to "chart the math."
Really, though, his multi-trillion $$$ guesstimates date back to 2016. And they're not … exactly … "scientific," if you know what I mean:
…I had Morgan's more recent #guesstimates in front of me when I first decided to "chart the math."
Really, though, his multi-trillion $$$ guesstimates date back to 2016. And they're not … exactly … "scientific," if you know what I mean:
3/🧵
Morgan's original multi-trillion $$$ #guesstimate waffled as it [d]evolved from 2016 through 2017 depending on whom he cited:
Morgan's original multi-trillion $$$ #guesstimate waffled as it [d]evolved from 2016 through 2017 depending on whom he cited:
4/🧵
On 29 January 2018, Morgan finally took a stand on "$3 trillion" annually since 2015 and made his first prediction of "$6 trillion annually by 2021."
Yet as you can see, Morgan cited — and embraced! — a "$3 trillion" #guesstimate from Microsoft's CEO:
On 29 January 2018, Morgan finally took a stand on "$3 trillion" annually since 2015 and made his first prediction of "$6 trillion annually by 2021."
Yet as you can see, Morgan cited — and embraced! — a "$3 trillion" #guesstimate from Microsoft's CEO:
5/🧵
Morgan changed his tune less than two months later to stake his [company's?] own prediction that "Cybercrime damages will cost the world $6 trillion annually by 2021, up from $3 trillion in 2015."
To the best of my knowledge, Morgan hasn't revealed his research methodology:
Morgan changed his tune less than two months later to stake his [company's?] own prediction that "Cybercrime damages will cost the world $6 trillion annually by 2021, up from $3 trillion in 2015."
To the best of my knowledge, Morgan hasn't revealed his research methodology:
6/🧵
Morgan finally swiped Satya's #guesstimate in August 2018. His tweets of late imply that Satya uses his SWAGs, not the other way around.
Morgan has since cornered the market for multi-trillion $$$ figures with "official" reports published by his Siamese-twin media company.
Morgan finally swiped Satya's #guesstimate in August 2018. His tweets of late imply that Satya uses his SWAGs, not the other way around.
Morgan has since cornered the market for multi-trillion $$$ figures with "official" reports published by his Siamese-twin media company.
7/🧵
Morgan took off with ✌️his✌️ multi-trillion $$$ #guesstimate and has since turned it into a string of ever-increasing values projecting into the future.
Morgan doesn't explain how previous guesstimates proved true. He just spouts them as a given fact while looking forward:
Morgan took off with ✌️his✌️ multi-trillion $$$ #guesstimate and has since turned it into a string of ever-increasing values projecting into the future.
Morgan doesn't explain how previous guesstimates proved true. He just spouts them as a given fact while looking forward:
8/🧵
In addition to Morgan, I also pound on cybersecurity #ThoughtLeaders who parrot his #guesstimates without extraordinary proof.
In this tweet series, I slammed @CompTIA — an industry testing & certification body! — for foolishly taking Morgan on faith:
In addition to Morgan, I also pound on cybersecurity #ThoughtLeaders who parrot his #guesstimates without extraordinary proof.
In this tweet series, I slammed @CompTIA — an industry testing & certification body! — for foolishly taking Morgan on faith:
9/🧵
Few people respond when I ask questions that make them realize Morgan #ahem might just be making up numbers out of whole cloth.
Some *do* respond. Annnnnd I let the discussions end right there.
Few people respond when I ask questions that make them realize Morgan #ahem might just be making up numbers out of whole cloth.
Some *do* respond. Annnnnd I let the discussions end right there.
10/🧵
Morgan has convinced numerous people to forward his tweets, perhaps in part because he's so relentless about it.
You'll see a "$10.5 trillion" #guesstimate tweet from him roughly every weekday.
Sometimes multiple tweets per day! He bragged it up three times on 2 August:
Morgan has convinced numerous people to forward his tweets, perhaps in part because he's so relentless about it.
You'll see a "$10.5 trillion" #guesstimate tweet from him roughly every weekday.
Sometimes multiple tweets per day! He bragged it up three times on 2 August:
11/🧵
At this point you might ask "who IS Steve Morgan?"
I kid you not:
Morgan is editor-in-chief of "Cybercrime Magazine" which ranked him among the top ten cyber journalists of 2021. It's published by "Cybersecurity Ventures" which Morgan founded 😬
cybersecurityventures.com/10-top-cyberse…
At this point you might ask "who IS Steve Morgan?"
I kid you not:
Morgan is editor-in-chief of "Cybercrime Magazine" which ranked him among the top ten cyber journalists of 2021. It's published by "Cybersecurity Ventures" which Morgan founded 😬
cybersecurityventures.com/10-top-cyberse…
12/🧵
So, let's wrap up Steve Morgan:
He runs an ethically dubious cybersecurity media outlet. He touts a series of multi-trillion $$$ #guesstimates yet has not showed how he derived his predictions. Shallow-thinking thought leaders take him entirely on faith.
So, let's wrap up Steve Morgan:
He runs an ethically dubious cybersecurity media outlet. He touts a series of multi-trillion $$$ #guesstimates yet has not showed how he derived his predictions. Shallow-thinking thought leaders take him entirely on faith.
13/🧵
Okay, now, back to the innocent question that led me to reexamine my "Steve Morgan charts."
Morgan's 1/29/2018 tweet leads me to now start from 1/1/2015 at $3 trillion annually rising to $6 trillion in 2021, rising to $10.5 trillion in 2025.
Old chart vs. New chart:
Okay, now, back to the innocent question that led me to reexamine my "Steve Morgan charts."
Morgan's 1/29/2018 tweet leads me to now start from 1/1/2015 at $3 trillion annually rising to $6 trillion in 2021, rising to $10.5 trillion in 2025.
Old chart vs. New chart:
14/🧵
New "Steve Morgan charts" will use his simplistic predictions that ✌️cybercrime✌️ cost $3 trillion annually in 2015, $6 trillion annually in 2021, and $10.5 trillion annually by 2025.
It's that simple.
And it's that #ABSURD. Because it looks like this on 12/31/2025:
New "Steve Morgan charts" will use his simplistic predictions that ✌️cybercrime✌️ cost $3 trillion annually in 2015, $6 trillion annually in 2021, and $10.5 trillion annually by 2025.
It's that simple.
And it's that #ABSURD. Because it looks like this on 12/31/2025:
15/🧵
Steve Morgan needs to give our industry a REAL "deep dive" into his empirical data and the extrapolation model he allegedly chose for his predictions. NOT THIS PIECE OF TRASH:
Steve Morgan needs to give our industry a REAL "deep dive" into his empirical data and the extrapolation model he allegedly chose for his predictions. NOT THIS PIECE OF TRASH:
16/🧵
I'll cite my questioner below if they choose. I strive to give people the credit they deserve and this one proved a doozy! Thank you for pointing me to a better beginning for the "Steve Morgan charts" 🤓
@ThreadReaderApp please unroll
I'll cite my questioner below if they choose. I strive to give people the credit they deserve and this one proved a doozy! Thank you for pointing me to a better beginning for the "Steve Morgan charts" 🤓
@ThreadReaderApp please unroll
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