Thread by @AndrewPerpetua

My daily update! #ukrdailyupdate

If you would like to view the map, here is the link: google.com/maps/d/u/0/edi…

Today Russia launched two large bombardments of Kharkiv, one in the morning, one in the evening. In the morning they targeted primarily administrative buildings and industrial areas. Tonight they appear to have targeted civilian areas.

North of the city, the situation is more or less status quo. There is fighting along the line of contact, and evidence that Tsupivka and Velyki Prokhody are now firmly contested whereas before I had them listed as weakly Russian controlled.

South east of the city, though, Russia launched a significant attack into Husarivka (1). The fighting is ongoing, and this could mark the beginning of their new Kharkiv offensive.

I believe there is a strong likelihood that Russia will attempt to break through Husarivka and then push west and then north to wrap around this southern flank of Kharkiv.

If they cannot break through Husarivka, then there are other options such as Pryshyb/Yavirske (A) and then Andriivka (B) or Rtyshchivka (C ) and then Malynivka (D) and Chuhuiv (E). I could be wrong with my analysis, but I believe this is their plan is to test all three of these.

In the Izyum area, Russia tried to attack Dolyna (2) and Bohorodychne (3), but both attacks were repelled. Note that the Bohorodychne attack came from an odd angle.

In the Siversk area, Ukraine still holds footholds in Bilohorivka and Verkhnokamyanka. In fact, Russia tried to attack Verkhnokamyanka today (4), but the attack failed.

Russia is trying to attack Yakovlivka from the east (5), which is a new attack vector made possible by Russia getting more control over the highway in that area. The attack failed.

In the Bakhmut area, There is ongoing fighting around the Knauf Gips factory in Soledar (6). Russia claims Ukraine attempted a counter attack from this factory, but I have not seen real evidence that is true.

Around Bakhmut, Russia claims to have moved all the way up to the intersection of the M06 and T0504 highways, otherwise known as Patrisa Lumumby Street (7).

There is ongoing fighting in Vershyna (8), Kodema (9), and Travneve (10). As I noted yesterday, Ukraine abandoned Semyhirya, they never intended on defending the town. It is now totally under Russian control.

In the Donetsk area, Russian forces are heavily bombarding Krasnohorivka and attempting to flank and assault the town (11). They have had limited success.

In Avdiivka, a few days ago I noted that Russia had “limited success”, and I drew an arbitrary shape. It turns out I overestimated, and I have changed the map (12). There is ongoing fighting. Russia is heavily bombarding Avdiivka in preparation for future attacks.

In Pisky, the Ukrainian reinforcements have stopped all Russian progress in the town (13,14).

Russia is heavily shelling Marinka and there is ongoing fighting (15).

In Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine is continuing their attacks south towards Dorozhnyanka (16), Nesterianka (17), and Konovalova (18).

The main fighting going here, though, are artillery duels. And Ukraine is absolutely wiping the floor with Russia. Ukrainian counter battery fire is otherworldly, and they are managing sub one minute response times with their counter battery fire.

That is off the scales in terms of speed, and it means they are using predictive fire. Not only is Ukraine killing Russian artillery while they are shooting, they are killing Russian artillery while they are moving into position to shoot. Striking vehicles on the move.

Russian artillery has suffered so many losses that this week they had to bring in a new artillery brigade to fill in the gaps. That brigade has been pulled out and sent back to Tokmak (19), presumably as a result of their high losses.

In the Kherson area, Russia tried to assault both Bilohirka (20) and Lozove (21) and both attacks took tremendous damage from Ukrainian artillery and were shattered.

In Luhansk Oblast, pretty close to Russia, in the town of Bilovodsk, the town mayor and his deputy were shot and wounded by Ukrainian partisans while driving down the road (22). Russia has launched a manhunt/investigation to find the perpetrators, but they cannot be found.

That is all I have for today.

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