Thread by @PhillipsPOBrien

I know there is alot of talk about increased Russian ranged fire this week, however there is still strong evidence that Ukrainian depot attacks are limiting significantly the intensity of what the Russians can sustain.

If you look at a week long FIRMS map (which should compensate for some weather differentiation) in the greatest fighting area of the Donbas and compare it to early July, the intensity/concetration of Fires is significantly down--if the spread is as wide.

Map is slightly moved to take into account that the area of fighting has changed--however the concentration of fire is way way down. Russia does not seem to be able to maintain fire in anything like the intensity of early July--so we need to be cautious in talking about it.

Exact same situation seems to be happening in Kherson. There is fire, but not nearly as concentrated. compare the past week again with earlier July. In many ways the difference is even more stark--concentrated Russian fire seems way down.

So while some people are talking about Russia really firing huge amounts of artillery, it seems to be more of a case that they can fire a small amount over a wide area. Which is exactly what one would expect with Ukraine's successful logistics attacks.

The Russians seem to be having issues building up large stores of ranged ammo for their forward units.

Saw there was some comment about how the weather might have led to decreased fire recordings this week. Well I have the last 7 days in the Severodonetsk area (Donbas) and 5 of the days were almost completely clear. (takes two pictures).

Now for the week in July with all the concentrated fire in the Donbas (July 3-9) there were 3 half days of cloud as opposed to two full days. So fractionally darker, but not enough to account (imho) for the massive difference in concentrated fire.

If you want to check the weather website yourself--here is the link. So I maintain that Russians have not, since the depot attacks, been able to build up anything like the concentrated ranged attacks they were before

Sorry--here is the link timeanddate.com/weather/@69199…