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Aug 5 • 3 tweets • 2 min read
News from the Ponzi front!

Apparently 1000MW of power are installed in crypto miners in Texas

Thats 8760GWh/p.a consumption

Texas total electricity generation = 430 TWh/p.a

Thats 2% of total power consumption for crypto

Texas burns 98Mt of coal/p.a

#coaltwitter
$btu
(1/3)
So currently ~2 million (!!!) tons of coal are burned a year to power crypto
Just in Texas

And it gets better
Argo will add 160MW by eoy '22 (+0,32Mt coal)
And plans to add another 600MW by 2024 (+1,2Mt coal)

And now add all those BEV that the govt wants you to buy

(2/3)
Now this is assuming that the other sources of power can be scaled up just as fast
The reality is that there is limited availability of gas and sky high prices
Share of Renewables cant be increased as fast as needed

Old coal plants are idled and ready to go all year round

END

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More from @MuffinmanMagic

MagicMuffinman Profile picture
Jul 29
RNS out!

The company has completed the pilot hole, which was stopped in accordance with the Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commission to avoid penetrating the high pressure HRZ, which could cause failure of the operation

Short 🧵1/3

polaris.brighterir.com/public/pantheo…
The company has now added ~300ft to the already known 450ft of oil bearing rock.
Initial estimate for the 450ft was 90-135 mbbl recoverable (76mbbl LKA estimate)
The addition of another 300ft implies 66% upside here
Lets look at the company estimates for the previous volume
2/3
Lets assume a long term oil px of >70$ which is convervative the NPV10 of the new volume would be 1,33b$, up by 500m$
The company has a MCap of < 1b$ right now
And this is one of the smaller projects
There is a lot of positive news in the RNS which need to be adressed later
END
Read 4 tweets
MagicMuffinman Profile picture
Jul 24
Nice find by @penny_student
I always had that little concern that the oil fields discovered by $PANR could be just too big for a pot. purchaser
Could they pay an appropriate price for it?
There's uncertainty if they could exhaust the billions of bbls of oil due to ESG
🧵1/7
Lets see whats going on in the world right now

The world is desperate for nat gas. It will be needed for decades to compensate the volatility of renewable energy.
So blackrock wants to aggressively invest in Alaskan nat gas & infrastructure to export it on the global market
2/7
So Mr Dunleavy and Mr. Sullivan are lobbying in Japan to supply them with nat gas and blue / green hydrogen.
Together with the blackrock statements this all bodes well for the alaskan gas pipeline project which has been on ice for a while now.
So how does this benefit $PANR ?
3/7
Read 7 tweets
MagicMuffinman Profile picture
Jul 20
$BTU

Today I did look a little closer on the ominous "Other US Thermal" segment at $BTU
So what is it?
There are six mines within this segment
4 of these mines are within the Illinois basin, see pic
Then there is the El segundo in New Mexico and the Twentymile in Colorado
🧵1/5
The mines in the Illinois basin produced 67% of the 17,1Mt of the other US segment in 2021
They generate 21% of their revenue in the other US thermal and 18% of their EBITDA

The interesting question is, how much upside is there and when might we expect to see more earnings ?
2/5
I plotted the avg realized revenue per ton of the other US from the last 8 earnings vs the spot price of illinois basin coal
I know thats not 100% accurate as other US is a mix
Delta of 50$/t to spot end Q1
The realized revs are rising (+27% yoy) but have a long way to go
3/5
Read 5 tweets
MagicMuffinman Profile picture
Jul 13
Some thoughts & facts on the german coal revolution

Germany is heavily dependend on russian energy imports
This graphic shows just how bad it is

The hard coal imports from Russia were 1,3 Mt in Q1'22
Coal imports to fully stop from 1st August

A 🧵(1/6)

rferl.org/a/germany-to-s…
So from August there will be demand for non russian coal of 1,3 Mt on the already stressed international coal markets (5,2 Mt/year)

In 2021 global trade volume was 277 Mt for thermal coal so the german demand will add ~2% to global trade volume

(2/6)

reuters.com/business/energ…
But wait, there is more!

Germany imports 55% of its gas from Russia
12% of all gas is used to generate electricity

But the gas is needed to keep the industry running and to keep the houses from freezing

So gas consumption needs to be cut in electricity generation

(3/6)
Read 7 tweets
MagicMuffinman Profile picture
Jul 9
I have researched a bit more on Australian coal exports to add some detail to my last thread on this topic

I have reviewed some more sources to try to narrow down the export volumes which might be attributed to $btu by using port export data
A 🧵(1/6)

The graph shows the share of NSW coal on total exports
The map shows the location of the different coal mines and deposits in Australia.
I have added the position of Newcastle export terminal and the $btu mines
~40% of coal exports are from NSW
Link: ga.gov.au/digital-public…
(2/6)
Here is also the notion from the $btu earnings report that they export via Newcastle. Waratah is an additional terminal in Newcastle
So all coal mined for export in Wilpinjong and Wambo thermal mines will be shipped from Newcastle

(3/6)
Read 6 tweets
MagicMuffinman Profile picture
Jul 7
Another Thread on $btu

This morning the AUS Bureau of statistics released a surprisingly large trade surplus.
Exports of coke and coal rose by 2b AUD from Mar to April and another 2b April to May

So, could we cross read this to $btu?
(1/4)

dailymaverick.co.za/article/2022-0…
Q1 was negatively impacted by Covid, rainfall/ flooding and establishing a new Longwall at Wambo. See pic from last q report

Seaborne thermal = NSW mines

Lets look at Covid in NSW where $btu got its mines.
I marked the q's on the official diagraph
Looking alot better!

(2/4)
What about rainfall?

Here are the reports for Autumm (q2) and Summer(q1)

Both very wet, unfortunately.
I compared weather data for Maitland and Dunedoo, where $btu got its mines
Almost identical rainfall

Next: Longwall, was a one off, should now yield more tons in wambo
(3/4)
Read 4 tweets

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