My #1 marker for the designation "imbecile": the person conflates NECESSARY & SUFFICIENT:

"Math is necessary to undrstnd probability" they counter w/"math doesn't always work".

"Experience is necessary to undrstnd finance" they use counterexamples of old pple who made mistakes.
2) E.g. blockchain arguments"it's a NEW technology, denying it is like denying the early internet". They mistake NEW for a sufficient condition.

I walked out of a barber shop in Beirut who wanted to use the electric th. in place of scissors when he said "we use cars not horses"
3) The conflation of necessary & sufficient is more technically called: affirming the consequent.
[Notes for #FooledbyRandomness]
Almost all comments on my Twitter aphorisms usually make that mistake.

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More from @nntaleb

Jul 20
Statistical illiteracy.
Info is that 20 per 100K have some "serious" side effect (not fatality) *after* vaccines (across age groups).
Assuming due to vaxx, compare to ~2-5K per 100K unvaxxed hospitalized owing to Covid.

[Sent to me by antivaxx #idiot]

2) Now regardless of your computation of the risks for unvaxxed and Simpson's eff. [vaxxed are older, infection rate can be higher, etc.], it remains that we are talking 2 order of magnitude difference.
3) Note: serious does not necessarily mean hospitalization. And, critically, includes people who got sick for other reasons.
Read 5 tweets
Jul 17
HOW FINANCE IS HARD
Wheat is trading below where it was when the Ukraine war started.
Never fall for first order narratives.
{#FatTony made his fortune shorting oil after the First Gulf War.}
2) The mechanism: overadjustment to shortages. $$ to produce substitutes elsewhere, plus adaptation away from expensive product.
1973 oil shock led to slow adaptation [speed limits, smaller cars] => 1980s glut; today things are much, much faster.

Now watch microchips.
3) There is already a glut in microchips.

reuters.com/technology/com…
Read 4 tweets
Jul 16
Hope du Jour: the electric-assist bicycle has the potential to turn every hilly city into Amsterdam* **.

* It is vastly more energy efficient than any other form of individual transportation.
** Disclaimer: I live in hilly places & only use regular bicycles. For now.
2) Note: An electric car (say a Tesla) has between 600 to 1100 the horsepower of a 500W electric-assist bicycle.
So why does one pay sales tax on an E-bicycle in NY AND get a tax credit for an electric car?
3) Actually there is a proposal for tax cuts for e-bicycles in the f. package. But, curiously, not for regular bicycles which are even more env. friendly.
Read 4 tweets
Jul 5
Mini-Symposium [thread]
Friends, I have to write a foreword for
@holland_tom's Dominion, as punishment for listening to @TheRestHistory at the (profane) gym.

1- Is Xrstnty the 1st "religion" to establish the separation holy-profane?

2- Is it the 1rst to eliminate hierarchies?
3- When did the distinction between Judean [יהודה] and Jewish [יהודי] appear?
4- Adding from here: how to transcend the verbalism about "religion".
A lot of modern Judaism comes from Christianity. The sequence Judaism -> Christianity -> Islam is not entirely in one direction.

medium.com/incerto/we-don…
Read 12 tweets
Jun 22
A reminder that Cash is up 22% on the year vs financial assets, and, of course, 135% vs bitcoin.
2) Cash for me is short term T bills, not quite bank accounts.
If Assets are down 18%, cash is up 22%
Read 5 tweets
Jun 6
INFLATION /n
Supermarkets A & B are in the same town.
A advertises it sells same butter brand $.53/lb cheaper than B. B advertises it sells the same detergent $.78 cheaper than A.
When gauging your own goods inflation, look at the lower bound of prices & include substitution.
2/ So the error is to anchor on specific items rather than a dynamic basket.
There has been a loss of financial sophistication w/cypto/blockchain generation. In their word salads, they don't get that "money supply" became asset inflation from low rates, largely from crypto & RE.
3) The core is optionality. The consumer does not have a rigid basket, but has the option to switch between items and substitutes as they become available via high and low technology.
I see errors made today by "professionals" that were almost never made in the past.
Read 4 tweets

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