My #1 marker for the designation "imbecile": the person conflates NECESSARY & SUFFICIENT:
"Math is necessary to undrstnd probability" they counter w/"math doesn't always work".
"Experience is necessary to undrstnd finance" they use counterexamples of old pple who made mistakes.
2) E.g. blockchain arguments"it's a NEW technology, denying it is like denying the early internet". They mistake NEW for a sufficient condition.
I walked out of a barber shop in Beirut who wanted to use the electric th. in place of scissors when he said "we use cars not horses"
3) The conflation of necessary & sufficient is more technically called: affirming the consequent.
[Notes for #FooledbyRandomness]
Almost all comments on my Twitter aphorisms usually make that mistake.
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Statistical illiteracy.
Info is that 20 per 100K have some "serious" side effect (not fatality) *after* vaccines (across age groups).
Assuming due to vaxx, compare to ~2-5K per 100K unvaxxed hospitalized owing to Covid.
2) Now regardless of your computation of the risks for unvaxxed and Simpson's eff. [vaxxed are older, infection rate can be higher, etc.], it remains that we are talking 2 order of magnitude difference.
3) Note: serious does not necessarily mean hospitalization. And, critically, includes people who got sick for other reasons.
HOW FINANCE IS HARD
Wheat is trading below where it was when the Ukraine war started.
Never fall for first order narratives.
{#FatTony made his fortune shorting oil after the First Gulf War.}
2) The mechanism: overadjustment to shortages. $$ to produce substitutes elsewhere, plus adaptation away from expensive product.
1973 oil shock led to slow adaptation [speed limits, smaller cars] => 1980s glut; today things are much, much faster.
Hope du Jour: the electric-assist bicycle has the potential to turn every hilly city into Amsterdam* **.
* It is vastly more energy efficient than any other form of individual transportation.
** Disclaimer: I live in hilly places & only use regular bicycles. For now.
2) Note: An electric car (say a Tesla) has between 600 to 1100 the horsepower of a 500W electric-assist bicycle.
So why does one pay sales tax on an E-bicycle in NY AND get a tax credit for an electric car?
3) Actually there is a proposal for tax cuts for e-bicycles in the f. package. But, curiously, not for regular bicycles which are even more env. friendly.
Mini-Symposium [thread]
Friends, I have to write a foreword for @holland_tom's Dominion, as punishment for listening to @TheRestHistory at the (profane) gym.
1- Is Xrstnty the 1st "religion" to establish the separation holy-profane?
2- Is it the 1rst to eliminate hierarchies?
3- When did the distinction between Judean [יהודה] and Jewish [יהודי] appear?
4- Adding from here: how to transcend the verbalism about "religion".
A lot of modern Judaism comes from Christianity. The sequence Judaism -> Christianity -> Islam is not entirely in one direction.
INFLATION /n
Supermarkets A & B are in the same town.
A advertises it sells same butter brand $.53/lb cheaper than B. B advertises it sells the same detergent $.78 cheaper than A.
When gauging your own goods inflation, look at the lower bound of prices & include substitution.
2/ So the error is to anchor on specific items rather than a dynamic basket.
There has been a loss of financial sophistication w/cypto/blockchain generation. In their word salads, they don't get that "money supply" became asset inflation from low rates, largely from crypto & RE.
3) The core is optionality. The consumer does not have a rigid basket, but has the option to switch between items and substitutes as they become available via high and low technology.
I see errors made today by "professionals" that were almost never made in the past.