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1-Christianity couldn't spread like Islam into Central Asia, Africa.
It offered no law for traders. Rome (&Berytus) had the law. So Christianity stayed limited to around the Roman empire.
The Savafids could not convert out w/o losing the legal system. So they adapted.
1-Christianity couldn't spread like Islam into Central Asia, Africa.
It offered no law for traders. Rome (&Berytus) had the law. So Christianity stayed limited to around the Roman empire.
The Savafids could not convert out w/o losing the legal system. So they adapted.
2- People have a hard time shedding their legal system. Napoleon lost; his code stayed, even spread to countries Napoleon never invaded!
(Rather, the code of Cambaceres).
Lesson: write a tight, coherent code.
We are codifying the #PrecautionaryPrinciple
Make it indispensable.
(Rather, the code of Cambaceres).
Lesson: write a tight, coherent code.
We are codifying the #PrecautionaryPrinciple
Make it indispensable.
3- I do not hide that I am writing a political code. My own.
No explanations, no arguments. No attempts at convincing. Take it or leave it.
No explanations, no arguments. No attempts at convincing. Take it or leave it.
In the light of the Monsanto scandal(s), should we ban paid professional lobbying (as a form of asymmetric tampering with democracy and governance)?
Remember there are 30,000 lobbyists in Brussels.
Remember there are 30,000 lobbyists in Brussels.
Unpaid advocacy is NOT professional lobbying.
It doesn't mean banning free speech, but banning nonpublic contact with elected officials and government decision makers. All discussions between paid advocates and goverment pple should be made public AND easily accessible.
MATH RIDDLE DU JOUR. Since my name is on it, I am obligated to solve.
One possible approach
Typos and explained the inequality
ATTENTION SALARYPEOPLE
Next Friday when your guaranteed monthly paycheck is deposited, take a moment of gratitude for the entrepreneurs who took the risks so you get this risk-free income.
Shaming an risk-taker for losing money is like shaming a soldier for losing a limb.
Next Friday when your guaranteed monthly paycheck is deposited, take a moment of gratitude for the entrepreneurs who took the risks so you get this risk-free income.
Shaming an risk-taker for losing money is like shaming a soldier for losing a limb.
If there were no entrepreneurs and risk takers ...
(I am getting idiots commenting on salaries without thinking in higher order terms.)
(I am getting idiots commenting on salaries without thinking in higher order terms.)
2) And remember that it is risk takers and the mechanism of risk-taking that pulled more than a billion people out of poverty, not the design of some NGOer, civil servant, or some other acroparasite on a steady salary.
Gabish?
Gabish?
The press is gloating over the fact that Trump lost more than a billion in 80-90s.
IYIs don't get that it is what got him elected: losing money (your own, not others) makes you real, unlike some lifeless hack.
Life is risk taking. (Passage from #SkininTheGame)
IYIs don't get that it is what got him elected: losing money (your own, not others) makes you real, unlike some lifeless hack.
Life is risk taking. (Passage from #SkininTheGame)
There are many areas to focus on if you are after Trump: mainly the relationship with Saudi Barbaria and the fact that he bans Iranians not Saudis from coming here when it is the Saudis who are the terrorists.
Not his losses.
Not his losses.
Shaming an entrepreneur for losing money is like shaming a veteran for losing a hand.
The acroparasites in the press are insulting the entrepeneurs the risk takers that are paying for their daily bread!
The acroparasites in the press are insulting the entrepeneurs the risk takers that are paying for their daily bread!
RENT SEEKERS
We need to make pple aware that discontent related to inequality is mainly discontent about rent seeking and rent seekers.
Prevent rent seekers from exploiting this discontent by making it look like society need more IYIs like them to solve it.
#GiletJaunes
We need to make pple aware that discontent related to inequality is mainly discontent about rent seeking and rent seekers.
Prevent rent seekers from exploiting this discontent by making it look like society need more IYIs like them to solve it.
#GiletJaunes
The problem isn't inequality, it's RENT SEEKERS without skin in the game.
medium.com/incerto/inequa…
medium.com/incerto/inequa…
3) Easy to deconvert someone from State worship via Martin Luther's argument that "God & clergy are different "tings"". Show them that bureaucrats-cronies-nudgeboys-virtue merchants & "State" aren't the same "ting" & "the State is among us".
Keep the State distributed!
#Localism
Keep the State distributed!
#Localism
FRIENDS, the first draft for comments.
"One Does Not Eat Forecasts": On the Difference between Forecasting and Real Life Payoffs @spyrosmakrid
academia.edu/38962327/_One_… via @academia
"One Does Not Eat Forecasts": On the Difference between Forecasting and Real Life Payoffs @spyrosmakrid
academia.edu/38962327/_One_… via @academia
Which title is better?
A +One Does Not Eat Forecasts
B +Where are the Great Forecasters' Yachts?
A +One Does Not Eat Forecasts
B +Where are the Great Forecasters' Yachts?
Presenting the paper in 5 min at the NY quant seminar and need a new title...
A Shiite 16-Year-Old
DISCLAIMER: It appears that the picture comes from a different execution (perhaps ISIS, another Wahabi group).
But Saudi Barbaria effectively executed a 16 y.o. Shiite by beheading.
But Saudi Barbaria effectively executed a 16 y.o. Shiite by beheading.
And Saudi Barbaria beheaded a total of 37 people, one of whom was crucified.
Scientific papers should be written like car manuals. No prose, just precision.
Showing psychologists have NO IDEA about "overestimation" of tail probabilities, (technical version of my lecktshur at the great @spyrosmakrid's M4 competition).
Showing psychologists have NO IDEA about "overestimation" of tail probabilities, (technical version of my lecktshur at the great @spyrosmakrid's M4 competition).
Renamed the paper: "One Cannot Eat Forecasts".
New version.
New version.
(cont)
At the center of my problem with Phil "the rat" Tetlock @Ptetlock is only a matter of...elementary calculus upon which EVERYTHING in his "forecasting" work is built.
Elementary.
Elementary.
Typo: the integration is over any subset of A.
Why I call @Ptetlock a rat. He SIGNED on this paper then renegged & stabbed me in the back WITHOUT even contacting me (to get forecasting contracts).
This imbecile doesn’t get that in real life one is not paid in frequency but in dollars. Fail frequently, stay convex.
Learn to fail.
Learn to fail.
Never pathologize (bounded) failure. Pathologize the refusal to try.
In general, when people selfstyle themselves "entrepreneur", "polymath", or something of the sort, they're not.
Real entrepreneurs calls themselves "restaurant chain CEO", "Ski equipment manufacturer", "kidney imaging importer"...
Real entrepreneurs calls themselves "restaurant chain CEO", "Ski equipment manufacturer", "kidney imaging importer"...
MATHEMATICAL FINANCE DU JOUR
A robust method for tail option pricing.
A robust method for tail option pricing.
Typos
Arbitrage boundary
Don't use "White Supremacist". Use Nordicist. Please.
medium.com/east-med-proje…
medium.com/east-med-proje…
By "Nordicist" I mean Northern European supremacists.
And if you need to refer to race, use the 3 ROBUST geographical designations: Caucasian (i.e. Western Eurasian), Subsaharan, East Asian, (not more than 4).
"White" is indicative of purity, not race.
"White" is indicative of purity, not race.
WARNING: 1/n
@ZeroHedge published a post on "country IQ" meant to justify that some races are "genetically inferior", hence bound to remain poor because of genetic defects.
1) The article was written by a charlatan, James Thompson using shoddy statistics (see my Medium piece)
@ZeroHedge published a post on "country IQ" meant to justify that some races are "genetically inferior", hence bound to remain poor because of genetic defects.
1) The article was written by a charlatan, James Thompson using shoddy statistics (see my Medium piece)
2) ALL of these studies fail to account for cultural aspects of testing.
3) Main researcher @GarettJones doesn't know what NOISE means.
4) Similar previous "research" did same for Irish, Southern Slavs, etc. who have now caught w/rest
5) A few data points can flip IQ/Performance!
3) Main researcher @GarettJones doesn't know what NOISE means.
4) Similar previous "research" did same for Irish, Southern Slavs, etc. who have now caught w/rest
5) A few data points can flip IQ/Performance!
6) Fail to get that growth is not driven by AVERAGE but by EXTREMES that depend on variance
7) Even if effect is as claimed, it is drowned into variance to make it usuable as immigration policy.
8) It is IMMORAL to emprison people in fake boxes!!!
My PIECE
medium.com/incerto/iq-is-…
7) Even if effect is as claimed, it is drowned into variance to make it usuable as immigration policy.
8) It is IMMORAL to emprison people in fake boxes!!!
My PIECE
medium.com/incerto/iq-is-…
QUIZ
If you include 20% dead people in IQ tests, what will the minimum correlation IQ/performance be if the rest is random?
#nonlinearity
If you include 20% dead people in IQ tests, what will the minimum correlation IQ/performance be if the rest is random?
#nonlinearity
Some analytics on the ride home from #LibertyCon19: IQ #RacePeddlersIgnorantofProbabilitySuchAsTheQuackPeterson don't get the effect of the equivalent of adding dead people to your sample.
The point of adding dead people to your sample is to show the effect of the asymmetry:
1) it you hit someone on the head w/a hammer, he will be bad at everything (hence correlation), 2) there is no reverse equivalent.
So IQ effects come from borderline clinical people.
GAbish?
1) it you hit someone on the head w/a hammer, he will be bad at everything (hence correlation), 2) there is no reverse equivalent.
So IQ effects come from borderline clinical people.
GAbish?
In Belgrade for flaneuring with my former ex-Ottoman (& ex-Byzantine) compatriots @BrankoMilan and @PredragBrajovic, and to debate Branko at #LibertyCon19
My lectshur will be on localism and convexity.
My debate with Branko is on ergodic vs static equality.
medium.com/incerto/inequa…
My debate with Branko is on ergodic vs static equality.
medium.com/incerto/inequa…
Adriatic squid ink (risotto)
101 BS THINGS TAUGHT TO STUDENTS, 1
That correlation is a measure of relationship betw 2 variables.
It is very rarely so.
Few understand how correlation requires 1) no subsampling, 2) strict linearity... and its interpretation is nonlinear: 90% correlation >>> 80%.
That correlation is a measure of relationship betw 2 variables.
It is very rarely so.
Few understand how correlation requires 1) no subsampling, 2) strict linearity... and its interpretation is nonlinear: 90% correlation >>> 80%.
101 BS THINGS TAUGHT TO STUDENTS, 2
Semitic & Indo European languages appear to BOTH emerge from the same area in the Caucasus-Zagros-Anatolia, owing to proximity of agricultural vocabulary & similar original pop. genetics. Current linguistic categories are unrigorous.
@Safaitic
Semitic & Indo European languages appear to BOTH emerge from the same area in the Caucasus-Zagros-Anatolia, owing to proximity of agricultural vocabulary & similar original pop. genetics. Current linguistic categories are unrigorous.
@Safaitic
101 BS THINGS TAUGHT TO STUDENTS, 3
The "law of large numbers" almost never works for socioeconomic variables. See Chapters 6-8.
academia.edu/37221402/THE_S…
The "law of large numbers" almost never works for socioeconomic variables. See Chapters 6-8.
academia.edu/37221402/THE_S…
IDENTITY MONGERS
"Art and Identity in the Ancient Middle East" at @metmuseum: Edward Said-style identity mongers proceed to destroy the notion of cosmopolitan localism/Mediterraneanism of the Phoenicians. It shows the horrors of non-localist Nationalism.
1/n
"Art and Identity in the Ancient Middle East" at @metmuseum: Edward Said-style identity mongers proceed to destroy the notion of cosmopolitan localism/Mediterraneanism of the Phoenicians. It shows the horrors of non-localist Nationalism.
1/n
2/ Since ~1100 BC Phoenicians (then "Lebanese") have been the MOST MEDITERRANEAN of pples: look at food/behavior/looks.
But since 1860 some low-Intellect Westerners (Arabists & founders of AUB, etc.) have decided de-Mediterraneanize (initially de-Ottomanize) to satisfy "identity"
But since 1860 some low-Intellect Westerners (Arabists & founders of AUB, etc.) have decided de-Mediterraneanize (initially de-Ottomanize) to satisfy "identity"
These dumb fucks at @metmuseum were trying to illustrate their theories of "Middle East identity" showing a Hellenistic sarcophagus from Sidon with... Greek inscriptions on it.
Confused by Correlation?
BEAUTIFUL DISCOVERY
Unlike correlation, Mutual Information (cross entropy) is additive.
On that, later.
Unlike correlation, Mutual Information (cross entropy) is additive.
On that, later.
Mutual information sheds light on why low correlations are meaningless. Things are now clearer and clearer.
People don't know their preferences: they think they like large houses, but prefer to huddle in small spaces over large empty silent rooms.
Never ask pple what they "like", watch what they do. #Skininthegame
wsj.com/articles/a-gro… via @WSJ
Never ask pple what they "like", watch what they do. #Skininthegame
wsj.com/articles/a-gro… via @WSJ
If you explicitly understand what you *really* like, you have a yuuuge advantage in life. γνῶθι σεαυτόν
When people get rich, they start follow the constructed preferences by the marketing industry, get hoodwinked into complicated lives... then, if they are lucky, give up.
medium.com/incerto/only-t…
medium.com/incerto/only-t…
Typos
Look here: I break up a quadrant into 4 subquadrants. Correlation keeps getting lower.
Reason: correlation is convex.
Reason: correlation is convex.
This is a Monte Carlo code for replication to prove I am not hallucinating
I just got a thingy in Atlanta to move away from these suicidal lunatics in NY.
zerohedge.com/news/2019-03-1…
zerohedge.com/news/2019-03-1…
NY will soon learn that only way you can enforce socialism is by closing borders and keeping people trapped inside (Cuba, Soviet bloc). People vote with their feet: a mechanism by which organic systems enforce selection.
I am not fully leaving NY yet, just using it as a "secondary" residence for now (I spent less than 4-5 months there anyway). Just to make sure these socialist lunatics don't surprise me with some expropriation.
The IQ situation even worse. Found that here is no correlation IQ- income/wealth at highers levels EVEN FOR LOW IQ.
Hence the math used for "g" fails. Psycholophasters do not seem to know what correlations mean under nonlinearity.
And, BTW @jordanbPeterson is a quack.
Hence the math used for "g" fails. Psycholophasters do not seem to know what correlations mean under nonlinearity.
And, BTW @jordanbPeterson is a quack.
Same story for income. Above average income there is NO correlation. A "low IQ" person as likely to get a higher income.
More background info
medium.com/incerto/iq-is-…
medium.com/incerto/iq-is-…
PROBABILITY QUIZ du jour
Hint: as volatility rises, because the distribution is bounded to the left, the probability of exceeding any level goes to 0, with the mass a Dirac at 0. The point is that all the expectation is owed to a single low probability tail event.
Applying it to the Lognormal
