@nntaleb's Threads
Finally managed to imitate the Format used in Scholastic, Syriac, and Talmudic Medieval scholarship. 
More ornate
Incidentally the "Tufte style" is neither Lindy, nor esthetic, nor convenient to read. Density on the page never detracts people and even increases motivation. See #Antifragile
Stefan Molyneux is a dangerous (& low intellect) lunatic.
Country IQ is a fabrication.
Note: Steve Jobs was Syrian; @stefanmolyneux lives on the charity of followers.
Block anyone who follows @stefanmolyneux
Country IQ is a fabrication.
Note: Steve Jobs was Syrian; @stefanmolyneux lives on the charity of followers.
Block anyone who follows @stefanmolyneux
@StefanMolyneux "Country IQ" is something similar to the Protocols of the Sages of Zion, an invention by neo-Nazis/Barbarian supremacists; it has no backing but spreads like wildfire among the Nordic supremacists.
@StefanMolyneux This is beyond IQ as a measure of intelligence: Country IQ is a fabrication by the alt-right. No testing was done.
FOR COMMENTS
Friends, was asked to "predict" what would happen by the end of the decade.
Used Lindy.
Friends, was asked to "predict" what would happen by the end of the decade.
Used Lindy.
2nd version
Tis is probabilistic, so the idea is that 3-7 out of 10 items will be gone.
Dangerous sophistry.
Debt has destroyed societies.
By his reasoning crime is an injury WE inflict to ourselves.
Debt is money SOME groups or individuals owe to OTHER groups and individuals, who may be not born yet.
The bundling of all agents as "WE" is a naive fallacy.
Debt has destroyed societies.
By his reasoning crime is an injury WE inflict to ourselves.
Debt is money SOME groups or individuals owe to OTHER groups and individuals, who may be not born yet.
The bundling of all agents as "WE" is a naive fallacy.
In academia there is no difference between academia and the real world.
In the real world, there is.
In the real world, there is.
Further, the identity in Debt = Money an entity called "we" owes to an entity called "ourselves" fails ergocity.
#ergodicityeconomics @ole_b_peters
#ergodicityeconomics @ole_b_peters
LEBANESE FINANCIAL SITUATION, INTERVIEW
Recorded for LBCI (Thu 9:30 PM).
+ There ~no primary deficit, so no risk of big collapse. Debt is circular Bank-State.
+ People are so scared that ANY reduction of uncertainty (via moratorium) would be yuugely beneficial
Recorded for LBCI (Thu 9:30 PM).
+ There ~no primary deficit, so no risk of big collapse. Debt is circular Bank-State.
+ People are so scared that ANY reduction of uncertainty (via moratorium) would be yuugely beneficial
2/
+ Government cannot control the corruption, located is in the "deep" ministries. Changing minister is of no help.
+Nonpolitical decentralization only solution.
+Central state great at managing sectarian tensions ...but incapable of dealing with economic life; it's a burden
+ Government cannot control the corruption, located is in the "deep" ministries. Changing minister is of no help.
+Nonpolitical decentralization only solution.
+Central state great at managing sectarian tensions ...but incapable of dealing with economic life; it's a burden
3/
+Need for *adult supervision* (international) of Salameh & others, no need to replace right away.
+Need for *adult supervision* (international) of Salameh & others, no need to replace right away.
Tonight.
They have to get the largest room.
They have to get the largest room.
The Volante team. Volante is a publisher in Stockholm.
I meant they changed room to the largest one based on registrations.
MYTH DU JOUR
Napoleon was not that great invincible general who was defeated by the Russian winter, nonmilitary circumstances. His Grande Armée had lost 2/3 of its soldiers before the first frost.
Also remember that he (twice) deserted his own army.
Napoleon was not that great invincible general who was defeated by the Russian winter, nonmilitary circumstances. His Grande Armée had lost 2/3 of its soldiers before the first frost.
Also remember that he (twice) deserted his own army.
He simply lost 2/3 of his troops to the Russians and the Cossacks.
Napoleon was also the grandmaster of fake news, doctoring up his "bulletins", misreporting his casualties and those of the enemies, even when he was the winner.
LEBANON'S FINANCIAL SITUATION
+ The primary budget is about balanced; pressure is from debt servicing.
+ Higher rates drain the economy as real investment returns pale compared to bank deposits *in US $*, leading to a circularity Gov-Banks-Depositors.
Let the system fix itself!
+ The primary budget is about balanced; pressure is from debt servicing.
+ Higher rates drain the economy as real investment returns pale compared to bank deposits *in US $*, leading to a circularity Gov-Banks-Depositors.
Let the system fix itself!
LEBANON'S FINANCIAL SITUATION, 2
The system fixes itself
+ People realize that banks returns are not risk-free; Any income generating project than lend to the "circularity".
+ Increase in governance from sudden transparent
+ Noninvestors take a haircut from past gains.
The system fixes itself
+ People realize that banks returns are not risk-free; Any income generating project than lend to the "circularity".
+ Increase in governance from sudden transparent
+ Noninvestors take a haircut from past gains.
LEBANON'S FINANCIAL SITUATION, 3
+ Traditional Lebanese politics along ethnoreligious lines are put on hold (now, money talks). Parties are deemed equally incompetent. Old system of *state employement as political patronage* goes out via attrition.
+ Real decentralization.
+ Traditional Lebanese politics along ethnoreligious lines are put on hold (now, money talks). Parties are deemed equally incompetent. Old system of *state employement as political patronage* goes out via attrition.
+ Real decentralization.
Which confirms my theory that Quillette is managed by a collection of low-intellect, low-skilled BS vendors, using poorly warmed up pseudoscience to promote a eugenics agenda and, of course, incapable of hiding it.
This idiot Toby Young by saying IQ is 80% heritable is not even representing the literature which (falsely) claims a maximum of 50% @toadmeister
@toadmeister Plomin estimates IQ *testing* is 50% heritable, itself weakly correlated to performance. Plus testing is also 80% correlated to other tests.
I estimated R^2 of 0% for socio-economic performance.
@toadmeister is a quack reciting some Quillette invented mantra.
I estimated R^2 of 0% for socio-economic performance.
@toadmeister is a quack reciting some Quillette invented mantra.
Is it me or is this Ukraine thingy a pathological delusion? Read the transcript.
My take: Collusion between two parties needs to emanate from an explicit transaction or a well defined offer, not something vague in a conversation. It should be subjected to the same standards as contractual obligations.
Otherwise everything can be interpreted as collusion.
Otherwise everything can be interpreted as collusion.
The point is not about Trump but the system. I can easily understand why someone can hate Trump. But changing the rules under asymmetries effectively destroys the system.
Blunder duJour:
Was telling someone on the phone in French "you gave me invaluable advice" (abt food, of course),
came out as literal translation "un avis sans valeur" which means
"an opinion of no value"
& realized after hanging up. Wonder if I will ever get more food tips.
Was telling someone on the phone in French "you gave me invaluable advice" (abt food, of course),
came out as literal translation "un avis sans valeur" which means
"an opinion of no value"
& realized after hanging up. Wonder if I will ever get more food tips.
This said there are a lot of words in French I know that have no (potent) equivalent in English which come to me in Fr:
+ vivotter
+ glander
+ minable
+ tête à baffe
+ vivotter
+ glander
+ minable
+ tête à baffe
(cont)
+ plouc
+ de souche
+ marche a coté de ses pompes
+ petit con (the "petit" is central)
+ plouc
+ de souche
+ marche a coté de ses pompes
+ petit con (the "petit" is central)
Please do not respond to my claim that
"(most) evolutionary biologists are dumb"
by calling me an egomaniac/some other pathology or "he says everybody but me is dumb".
Rather, try to grasp the below thread w/discussions by @yaneerbaryam etc.
You will then see the gravity.
"(most) evolutionary biologists are dumb"
by calling me an egomaniac/some other pathology or "he says everybody but me is dumb".
Rather, try to grasp the below thread w/discussions by @yaneerbaryam etc.
You will then see the gravity.
@yaneerbaryam 2) These simple comments by the 2 fellows destroy +5 decades of evolutionary psychology/biology, etc. I mean really shatter current methods.
@yaneerbaryam 3) People have no problem getting Nietzsche, Le Bon, & other's point that crowds composed of sane individuals can go crazy.
It is harder to get the reverse: that some groups of unfit individuals can be fitter than others with better individuals.
It is harder to get the reverse: that some groups of unfit individuals can be fitter than others with better individuals.
I would tell him that he should feel lucky. Compare these to the worst possible nightmare: an association with Ayn Rand.
I do share a lot of readers with Ayn Rand and there are some commonalities: 1) To do good, focus on your own business, 2) Bureaucrats are evil, etc.
But there are yuuuge differences. I do not believe that individuals should be "selfish", I do believe that the entrepreneur is
1/n
But there are yuuuge differences. I do not believe that individuals should be "selfish", I do believe that the entrepreneur is
1/n
a hero who serves the collective (expected return is negative as 999/1000 will fail) and there is no such thing as a "failed" entrepreneur;
I subscribe to virtue ethics and Christian morality which makes some of her stances repugnant to me both as a Christian & a Classic-ist.
2/n
I subscribe to virtue ethics and Christian morality which makes some of her stances repugnant to me both as a Christian & a Classic-ist.
2/n
@BretWeinstein @David_S_Wilson Caro Bret,
This explanatorizing is mired in 1960s Mickey-Mouse verbalisms devised by British (possibly drunk) naive statisticomaniacs.
Because of scaling, arguments for the survival of individual(s)≠survival of groups. So you need to explain groups qua groups.
@yaneerbaryam
This explanatorizing is mired in 1960s Mickey-Mouse verbalisms devised by British (possibly drunk) naive statisticomaniacs.
Because of scaling, arguments for the survival of individual(s)≠survival of groups. So you need to explain groups qua groups.
@yaneerbaryam
@BretWeinstein @David_S_Wilson @yaneerbaryam In other words:
+ Studying the psychology of individuals will never allow you to understand that of the market (determined by extremes, not sum).
+ Rationality for indiv. does not translate into "rationality" for group.
Saying it the way it is:
Evolutionary biologists are dumb.
+ Studying the psychology of individuals will never allow you to understand that of the market (determined by extremes, not sum).
+ Rationality for indiv. does not translate into "rationality" for group.
Saying it the way it is:
Evolutionary biologists are dumb.
Celebrating the Negroni's 100th anniversary.
(in Brescia). But I was told it tastes the same in Milan, and maybe almost the same elsewhere.
(in Brescia). But I was told it tastes the same in Milan, and maybe almost the same elsewhere.
A #Lindy drink.
So is its (mild) hangover.
So is its (mild) hangover.
Of course, the Genetically Modified Mosquito project has gone wrong, with, really, "unforeseen outcomes".
When will IYIs learn that we don't understand complex systems enough to play with them? Or when will we learn that science is not scientism?
When will IYIs learn that we don't understand complex systems enough to play with them? Or when will we learn that science is not scientism?
Of course, Bill Gates doesn't get that neomania works with software with reversible errors, not with complex systems.
This is not an "error": this is genetics.
Higher dimensions are really unpredictable.
Higher dimensions are really unpredictable.
I am scared of living in a society that doesn't find it obvious that things perfected by nature over millions of years are scientifically speaking, safer than things made by some "scientists" in a lab.
[Corrected]
Statistically, the "large n" of nature makes it > scientific.
[Corrected]
Statistically, the "large n" of nature makes it > scientific.
The "naturalistic fallacy" is not a fallacy outside the moral domain.
Gabish?
Gabish?
Didn't we put this, @normonics, in our Precautionary Principle paper? Where did it go?
Thank you.
That's the NYT.
Trump not looking for regime change in Iran.
Trump not looking for regime change in Iran.
There goes my diet! Forgot about this plan to have champaign on the day Bolton is out.
Added the tutorial on norms to the book (Chapter 3) to show what happens with higher moments of distributions.
Voila
The volume increases from 4/3 to 2^3
The volume increases from 4/3 to 2^3
THE CURSE OF DIMENSIONALITY: it always shows up. Here I illustrate it with norms.
Curse of dimensionality is what I used to show how 1) polygenic scores are a monstrous fraud, 2) GMO analyses don't work, etc.
Curse of dimensionality is what I used to show how 1) polygenic scores are a monstrous fraud, 2) GMO analyses don't work, etc.
Don't judge a city by bureaucratic criteria like traffic jams, cleanliness, safety, etc., but by something deeper in the soul of the place.
Jobim:“Morar em Nova Iorque é bom, mas é uma merda; morar no Rio é uma merda, mas é bom."
("NY is good, but crap. Rio is crap but good")
Jobim:“Morar em Nova Iorque é bom, mas é uma merda; morar no Rio é uma merda, mas é bom."
("NY is good, but crap. Rio is crap but good")
In the "CRAP BUT GOOD" category, there is an expression about Paolo Maluf: "Maluf steals but delivers" as he kept being reelected in spite of accusations of corruption.
Electors preferred a good thief who happens to be a doer to an honest idiot IYI.
Electors preferred a good thief who happens to be a doer to an honest idiot IYI.
In all fairness from the 70s to the late 90s, NY was not good-but-crap, rather crap-but-great.
Sao Paulo
Don’t be fooled by the orthography.
“Sao” is pronounced “san”, Joao like the French “jean”, cançao like the French “canson”.
Don’t be fooled by the orthography.
“Sao” is pronounced “san”, Joao like the French “jean”, cançao like the French “canson”.
Correction: Sao Paolo is pronounced like the French “saon”.
Churrasco Brasileiro
Things I learned this year:
There is a thing called Egyptian Aramaic.
I was wondering why Egyptian say "mayya" for water & other Levantinisms.
There is a thing called Egyptian Aramaic.
I was wondering why Egyptian say "mayya" for water & other Levantinisms.
2) Also further coincidences: that the DNA of the mummies is turning out to be Levantine/Anatolian, not Egyptian.
And Tell Amarina was in Akkadian.
And Tell Amarina was in Akkadian.
3) Something for master historical detective @Safaitic to help us with.
