Balaji Srinivasan Profile picture
Aug 5 9 tweets 3 min read
Their internal Chinese language messaging is effective, but the CCP isn’t good at arguing in English.

Partly because their interface to the outside world is monetary & (increasingly) martial, not moral.

Their moral argument is “China should be #1” which only works within China.
Consider this clip. That’s the Chinese ambassador to the US. Yet he can’t make his case in English.

Despite the fact that there are millions of Chinese nationals with far better English skills and cultural fluency, they weren’t tapped for this position.
Why? Perhaps someone who was very culturally fluent with the West would nowadays be suspect in China. Might not get an ambassador posting.

This extends to other parts of the PRC. They are internally focused. People aren’t selected for their ability to message out, but inward.
Basically, for China, their interface to the outside world is monetary & martial, not moral.

India is different. It’s not as strong monetarily or martially. But even a random Indian anchor shows a stronger penchant for moral argumentation in English than the Chinese ambassador.
This is why the emergence of India will be quite different from the emergence of China.

China has its own internal Chinese language internet. All memes and messaging are there. Parallel universe.

India is directly connected to the English internet & will shape it in a big way.
Another interesting contrast is to watch the Indian Minister of External Affairs, starting at 1:30 of the clip below.

He instantly apprehends the box the interviewer is trying to put him into, rejects the premise, and offers a different but substantiated view.
Yet another contrast to the CCP’s chosen spokesmen is Lee Kuan Yew, who helped Deng turn China away from Maoism and who was highly eloquent in English.

A bizarro-world thought experiment: imagine if the Chinese government could communicate like this.
I don’t think CCP China will be easily out-manufactured, out-executed, or out-fought. They are strong on physical things.

But they can perhaps be out-innovated, and definitely out-argued. A big weakness is their inability to argue in English, to make a moral case to the world.
By the way, a wildcard here is if AI gets so good that it can not just translate an argument into English, but make it convincing. I don’t think this is likely but can’t fully dismiss it.

Also, China *has* had global cultural success recently with (admittedly nonverbal) TikTok.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Balaji Srinivasan

Balaji Srinivasan Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @balajis

Aug 6
More complex than that.

Westerners like John Reed were prominent in the revolution. Germany let Lenin go to Russia. Sutton wrote about Wall Street’s financing of the Bolsheviks.

The Russian Revolution wasn’t entirely home grown. The West had a hand.
rferl.org/amp/the-americ… ImageImageImageImage
It’s true that Americans & other Westerners intervened on the side of the Russian Whites during the Russian Civil War.

But there were Westerners backing the Reds too. After all, many Western elites were sympathetic to communism, all through the century.
smithsonianmag.com/history/forgot…
This shouldn’t be that implausible if you’re aware of how the Nazis drew inspiration (and funding) from some groups in America.

The Soviets were similarly backed by other factions in the West. ImageImageImageImage
Read 4 tweets
Aug 6
What happens when philanthropy is vilified rather than praised?

The consequence is that someone like Zuck gets less flack for investing in a new biotech than for endowing a hospital.

So he does more of the former. This is not the intended result. But it’s not all bad.
There is an emergent dynamic here where progressives are taking away the status returns from philanthropy, thinking the state will fill the gap, but actually sawing off their own tree branch by cutting grants.

The capital then goes to (say) biotech investments instead. ImageImage
This is part of a broader concept.

If you read Easterly & Levine, or Blattman, you see that foreign aid actually keeps countries poor. But foreign *investment* gets them up and running.

Philanthropy patronizes, investment capitalizes.
priceonomics.com/what-happened-… Image
Read 4 tweets
Aug 6
China started by making plastic stuff for Walmart and leveled up to making anything in the physical world.

India started by doing customer support for Walmart…and is leveling up to making anything in the digital world.
There are countless graphs like these.

The real world impact is that if you cast your gaze around any room, it contains something physical made in China. Likely many such things. Image
India’s emergence will also be of colossal importance, but different. It’s going to be a force in the *digital* world.

It is already big in terms of Indian origin CEOs (Google, Microsoft, Twitter, etc) and Indian unicorns (#3 in the world).

But we are at the base of the curve. ImageImage
Read 4 tweets
Aug 5
“This network state idea could be dismissed…Except that they’re not proposing some unlikely future, but rather describing a de facto reality that’s only accelerated with the post-COVID crackup.”
@antoniogm’s review asks whether we need blood, faith, and soil to build a network state.

My take is: faith first, soil second, blood ideally never.

We don’t need to kill for food. We trade instead. Can we similarly innovate on states, competing for minds rather than lands?
We take it for granted that Google & Facebook competed for billions of active users without firing a shot.

Or that Bitcoin & Ethereum guard billions of dollars globally without the threat of violence.

Or that you don’t need to kill another CEO in a duel to start a new company.
Read 4 tweets
Aug 2
I write about this exact phenomenon in The Network State.

At scale, a startup becomes a bureaucracy. The CEO must ensure that all are replaceable, because otherwise one departure could kill a company. However, this leads to alienation. And then decline. thenetworkstate.com/left-is-the-ne…
Without picking on this guy at all — seems like a perfectly reasonable person — this attitude is why Google* hasn’t shipped innovative products in years.

* Their AI work is still amazing, but that’s research. Publishing isn’t as easily blocked by the rest of the org.
To compare and contrast the Google with “heros” to the one without them…

2001 Google: Paul Buchheit codes the antecedent of Gmail in one day. time.com/43263/gmail-10…

2022 Google: the big announcement is a new Gmail theme. workspaceupdates.googleblog.com/2022/06/update…
Read 5 tweets
Jul 31
No, VCs couldn't have "just funded nuclear", because regulations like ALARA increased the price of nuclear until it had no advantage over other sources.

The graph below is 100% the fault of the US establishment. They nuked nuclear.
rootsofprogress.org/where-is-my-fl… Image
I've thought about how to fix this, and my conclusion is: tracking polls.

To change the law, you need moral consensus. You measure that consensus with tracking polls. And you shift that consensus with rational + emotional arguments in a variety of media.
Image
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(