I dunno if I am going to do an update today. I don’t see news worth reporting on. Everything is basically the same as yesterday. It seems the biggest stories today were things I reported on like 3 days ago.
Like, today, Russia attacked all the same towns as yesterday. Especially around Bakhmut. Yakovlivka, Soledar (cluster munitions, too), that one street in Bakhmut, Zaitseve, Vershyna, Kodema. They shot butterfly mines into Krasnohorivka. Attacked Avdiivka, Pisky, Marinka.
Ukraine is still attacking south in Zaporizhzhia with no notable gains. What is noteworthy is that Russia reinforced all of the areas Ukraine has been attacking and then counter attacked north and Ukraine stopped that attack and began moving south again.
And in the Kherson area, Russia is trying to push Ukraine back across the Inhulets, but they are failing. Ukraine has done a lot of damage to Russian attacks using artillery, and they have expanded their area of control to an unspecified extent.
In the Kharkiv area, the fighting around Husarivka is the main concern. Ukraine claims to have halted the attack, but Russia claims the attack is ongoing. Personally, I think it is more likely the attack is ongoing.
To me, the most interesting areas is Zaporizhzhia. Zaporizhzhia is an extremely slow moving fight, and has been for weeks. Do not expect it to speed up. Ukraine has been capturing on average one town per week, sometimes including a few tiny satellite settlements.
That average is dragged down a bit because for a long time they were attacking in two areas, and now they are attacking in 4. So maybe that will make things a bit more exciting.
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Russia appears to be getting ready for an attack in the Kharkiv area. Today I read that Russia is in the process of positioning artillery and distributing ammunition for an upcoming bombardment of the area. There is ongoing fighting along the entire line of contact.
The Izyum area: The situation appears to be more or less unchanged from the prior few days, although this could be due to a media blackout. Russia tried to attack Bohorodychne several times today, but were repelled in the western outskirts each time (1).
Ukrainian forces shot a russian propagandist with a stugna, so that’s one less mountain of stupid we all have to deal with now.
This is the video.
And his dumb propaganda basically says “I shot ukrainians hiding in a residential building.” The text above the propaganda posts says “They even think they hit”
Today Russia launched two large bombardments of Kharkiv, one in the morning, one in the evening. In the morning they targeted primarily administrative buildings and industrial areas. Tonight they appear to have targeted civilian areas.
North of the city, the situation is more or less status quo. There is fighting along the line of contact, and evidence that Tsupivka and Velyki Prokhody are now firmly contested whereas before I had them listed as weakly Russian controlled.
Russia continues to shell the entire Kharkiv area, including the city itself. Russians in Kozacha Lopan are forcibly deporting Ukrainian citizens to Russia using the excuse of possible future Ukrainian attacks. Today Russia launched a failed assault into Dementiivka (1).
Russia has suffered absolutely huge losses attacking Dementiivka over the past few weeks, including losing large numbers of special forces from just about every branch of their armed forces, including brigade deputy commanders and chiefs of staff from the Spetsnaz.
Ukraine needs hundreds of howitzers. 600, 700, 1000. Russia is firing a many thousands of rounds per day into each settlement in the Avdiivka area. Pisky, Avdiivka, Marinka. We’re talking 20,000 shells per day. Concentrated firepower. Ukraine needs counter battery fire asap
US, NATO needs to be sending this. It doesn’t need to be cutting edge guns. It doesn’t need to be m777 or caesars or himars. They just need guns. They can be old guns.
The m198 would be fine. The United states has hundreds that they don't even use anymore. Just send them. I don’t understand why this stuff isn’t in Ukraine already.
In the Kharkiv area there was a standard exchange of artillery fire, particularly around Sosnivka and Kozacha Lopan. Russia attempted to attack Dementiivka (1) and Bairak (2) but both attacks were repelled.
The Izyum area is getting increasingly confusing as there is little news but hints of changing control over various areas. It is possible that Ukraine has captured both Sulyhivka and Dovhenke. For now I have kept Sulyhivka as a gray area and Dovhenke as under Russian control.