Riddler Profile picture
Aug 6 11 tweets 4 min read
Everyone who thinks #Aptos will be the new #Solana:

A 🧵:

When Solana was in the same stage, Aptos is now, no one of you guys knew it. It was 2-6 USD and nobody cared much except people who understood the advantage of flat fees, nearly instant confirmation times but also...
...understood the trade off between scalability and stability.

Aptos is not live on mainnet and is already so crowded. Their valuation is much higher than when SOL was at the same point.

Aptos already has lots of Solana projects (@SolriseFinance, @Saber_HQ) building on it.
There are even really low effort NFT projects trying to get the "first NFT on Aptos" label.

Everyone and their mom set themselves up to play the Aptos ecosystem like early Sol investors played Sol. It's one of the most crowded trades I've seen in the current crypto ecosystem.
Aptos and Sui are not flying under the radar of most normies. VC already secured their part of the cake in early funding rounds.

They had a valuation of 1bn USD after their first funding round in March and declined to publish their valuation after a second funding round...
... in July.

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

It's likely the current valuation exceeds Solana's valuation after being live on mainnet for a few months.

Expectations are huge and VC have full bags already... What could go wrong? Retail had no expectations for Solana at all.
And if you transfer the valuation of Aptos to Solana at the time, you would probably come up with a starting price of over $10. This is already 45x from Solana's ICO price of 0.22 USD.
If you plan to buy Aptos on launch keep in mind the following points:
-Its valuation is much higher than similar L1's at ICO
-It's already really popular compared to Solana or Polkadot in their early days
-It's heavily VC driven and this time retail is aware
...
-We are still in a bear market (will take some time until high time frames flip)
-L1 competition already going on for some time now, VC and retail chose their fighter already and have some bags
-I see people with literally no idea what the advantage of Aptos/Sui is, shilling it
I advise everyone not to transfer Solana's story 1:1 and to be careful with valuations. It is very easy to make money as an early investor, but also not always... Especially if this crowd is targeted to dump on by VC or the project itself.
I am not against Aptos or Sui and if their valuation makes any sense at the time of launch, i will secure a bag. But right now it's just a crowded vaporware scenario highly likely to implode short term after launch.

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