I've been so discombobulated lately that I don't keep track of what's in version of papers and what I include in lectures/teaching. So here's an update on what I've learned about DiD in 2022.

#jwdid (borrowing from @friosavila).
1. The pooled OLS method I proposed, which is the same as TWFE and random effects, is also equivalent to a version of imputation I proposed. That means it is consistent for various ATTs under weak assumptions (but those include no anticipation and parallel trends).
2. Because of this equivalence, POLS uses all possible control units in each time period for each cohort. Under standard assumptions, it is efficient.

3. I've only allowed time-constant covariates. But can see the "moderating effects" directly in the regression that gives ATTs.
4. Standard errors are easy to obtain, as is aggregation and their SEs, with built-in Stata commands. See the recent do file in my shared Dropbox. I've figured out lately how to make this even easier.
5. Both event-study type tests and het trend tests can be used to test for pre-trends. Both are the same on the entire sample and on the untreated units. So there is no contamination in using the tests in the fully flexible equation. The het trends also offer a correction.
6. It's easy to allow for exit by extending the notion of a "cohort." I've been teaching this but it needs to be added to my TWFE/TWM paper.

7. The simulations (that I need to add) look good for POLS/TWFE.
8. Once I saw the POLS/TWFE equivalence for the linear case, it seemed the former can extend to nonlinear cases. It does, and the pooled logit, frac logit, Poisson (with exp mean) identify ATTs under index PT assumptions. Hopefully that paper will appear in the Econometrics J.
9. I probably put too much weight on elegance of estimation methods, but how the marginal effects turn into the ATTs is really satisfying. Especially because it is extends cross-sectional regression adjustment to the staggered DiD setting.
10. I now have a very good idea about how to make it all work with repeated cross section, but that's not written down.

Feel free to ask questions about the method or Stata files. It's like the 10th version of some of those do files.

See my pinned tweet for the Dropbox link.

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More from @jmwooldridge

Aug 6
A DiD update. I've been editing my nonlinear DiD paper and I have posted a working paper here:

researchgate.net/publication/36…

It's actually more up to date than the latest version of the linear paper.
I've been trying to clean up the Stata do files for both the linear and nonlinear cases. I've learned a lot since last updating -- tricks that make things simpler (in linear and nonlinear cases). I'll pin a new tweet with the Dropbox location.
I'm probably a bit too happy with this paper. It works out elegantly and I think it's also useful. It's also very easy.

The simulations in the paper show how the nonlinear model can matter. The empirical example (common timing) shows it might not.
Read 7 tweets
Jul 6
A problem with specification testing is that it can lead those who are inexperienced to think that empirical work is mostly about applying a slew of specification tests to a particular model and then trying to sort out the findings.
This is apparent with linear panel data models, where one sees the Breusch-Pagan test used to choose between POLS and RE; the F test of the unit-specific dummies to choose between POLS and FE; and the Hausman test to choose between RE and FE.
One generic problem is that the default for each test is a nonrobust version. The first two actually maintain normality (although that can be relaxed). While a robust BP test exists -- I derive it in my MIT Press book -- the test doesn't tell us much.
Read 10 tweets
Jun 10
Not sure about that! But here's a first attempt. Suppose I have a control group and G treatment levels. The treatment, W, is in {0,1,2,...,G} is unconfounded conditional on X. Assume the overlap condition 0 < p0(x) = P(W=0|X=x) for all x in Support(X).
This isn't a trivial assumption b/c it requires that for and subset of the population as determined by values of x, there are some control units. However, if this isn't true, one can trim the sample -- as in the Crump et al. "Moving the Goalposts" work.
If overlap holds and conditional means are linear, the following regression recovers the ATTs of each group g relative to control:

Y on 1, W1, W2, ... WG, X, W1*(X - Xbar1), W2*(X - Xbar2), ..., WG*(X - XbarG) where Xbarg is the sample average of treatment group g.
Read 10 tweets
Apr 20
If in a staggered DiD setting I write an equation with a full set of treatment indicators by treated cohort and calendar time, and include c(i) + f(t) (unit and time "fixed effects"), would you still call that a "fixed effects" model?
If you answer "yes" then you should stop saying things like "there's a problem with the TWFE 'model'." The modeling is our choice; we choose what to put in x(i,t) when we write

y(i,t) = x(i,t)*b + c(i) + f(t) + u(i,t)

The phrase "TWFE model" refers to c(i) + f(t), right?
If x(i,t) = w(i,t) -- a single treatment indicator -- then the model might be too restrictive. But as I've shown in my DiD work, it's easy to put more in x(i,t) and estimate a full set of heterogeneous TEs. But I can (and should) still use the TWFE estimator.
Read 6 tweets
Feb 18
Not exactly. I like Bruce's approach in this paper and it yields nice insights. But in twitter and private exchanges last week, and what I've learned since, it seems that the class of estimators in play in Theorem 5 include only estimators that are linear in Y.

#metricstotheface
Theorem 5 is correct and neat, but leaves open the question of which estimators are in the class that is being compared with OLS. Remember, we cannot simply use phrases such as "OLS is BUE" without clearly defining the competing class of estimators. This is critical.
The class of distributions in F2 is so large -- only restricting the mean to be linear in X and assuming finite second moments -- that it's not surprising the class of unbiased estimators is "small." So small, it is estimators linear in Y.
Read 11 tweets
Feb 13
Concerning the recent exchange many of us had about @BruceEHansen's new Gauss-Markov Theorem, I now understand a lot more and can correct/clarify several things I wrote yesterday. I had a helpful email exchange with Bruce that confirmed my thinking.

#metricstotheface
A lot was written about the "linear plus quadratic" class of estimators as possible competitors to OLS. Here's something important to know: Bruce's result does not allow these estimators in the comparison group with OLS unless they are actually linear; no quadratic terms allowed.
If one looks at Theorem 5 concerning OLS, you'll see a distinction between F2 and F2^0. All estimators in the comparison group must be unbiased under the very large class of distributions, F2. This includes all distributions with finite second moments -- so unrestricted SIGMA.
Read 13 tweets

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