#Amnestyinternational@amnesty
War is hard. It’s horrific. It’s far from all those clean, climate-controlled offices and chart boards.
Everybody thinks the same thing: how to survive and possibly get a mission done. If you have been there, you know it.
Whether we like it or not, it is often far from those ideal rules written on paper. It’s a good idea to demand that combating sides respect the law of war and keep civilians safe. Unfortunately, very often, it’s easier said than done.
Not a single nation was ideal in terms of civilian safety in war. And Ukraine is not perfect. Because, again, fighting a war against one of the world’s largest militaries is much more complicated than lecturing someone from thousands of kilometers away from the battlefield.
Amnesty is correct as it stands for civilian safety in war. But, you know, as always, CONTEXT MATTERS. As someone who has seen a thing or two in this war since 2014, I can tell you that the Ukrainian military generally tries to keep civilians as safe as possible.
Evacuations, staying away from populated areas, thinking twice before returning fire.
If you want to get the difference between the two sides’ approaches, compare Sloviansk of 2014 with Mariupol of 2022. Or Popasna. Or Severodonetsk. Or Volnovakha.
My ruined hometown illustrates what happens when a military power doesn’t give a damn about civilians.
Of course, there are cases that do not correspond to the rules. It’s complicated. In that mess, sometimes, the rules of war are not the first thing commanders think about.
As a result, what happens is a Russian missile strike that kills scores of soldiers and also civilians who lived just next door. That’s why we hate war — a barely controllable tornado of blood.
CONTEXT MATTERS. And Ukraine is getting accused of certain incidents (quite possibly rightfully so) while the other side of the war, Russia, employs indiscriminate annihilation of cities as its basic tactics of war.
The last time I checked, the headline does not say “AI calls on sides to ensure civilian safety in warfare, multiple violations here!” That would have been a fair and just report. But AI overtly blames Ukraine.
Of course, Russia is more than happy to use such a wonderfully worded “report” in its war propaganda. Proportionality and common reason matter where every word is used as a weapon of war. Nobody cares if you had also previously had “something” about Russian war crimes.
People see what they are being shown at the moment.
If AI is fine about assisting an aggressor power in its murderous war of conquest via this false and misleading ”neutrality” — sorry, I am not.
You decide what happened, whether AI was being unprofessional or simply biased.
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THREAD 🧵
On Olenivka prison massacre.
Russian propaganda, being what it is, offers a conspiracy theory saying that over 50 Ukrainian POWs, the Azovstal soldiers, were killed by a Ukrainian HIMARS strike — because Azov members started “giving testimonies.”
So Russian blogosphere is now savoring this narrative saying that evil Zelensky slaughtered his own POW “Ukro-Nazis” because he wanted to prevent them from revealing the “truth” (what kind of truth?) about his NATO Nazi Reich and how Ukraine is to blame for this war.
Because this apparently makes complete sense, you know.
Also, it was a great day for them because scores of Ukro-swines were killed, anyway.
But there’s a problem here.
I am old enough to remember how Azovstal soldiers ended up in Russian captivity in May.
Downtown Vinnytsya now.
2 dead (including a kid), 6 wounded in a Russian missile strike
The strike’s approx location: 49.23951606215629, 28.492534360995165
There’s an old Soviet Officers’ Club building just across the road.
To those who don’t know — The Officers’ House (or the Officers’ Club) is a sort of cultural center the Soviet military used to establish in pretty much every major city. For concerts, official ceremonies, exhibitions, drama etc.
THREAD: How many tanks does Russia have now? How many more it can throw in against Ukraine?
Let’s think over what we know.
Military Balance 2021 says before the 2022 invasion Russia had a total of 3,330 operational tanks: Т-72s, T-80s, T-90s, up to the latest versions T-72B3Ms…
…T-80BVMs, or T-90Ms.
Ukraine says Russia has lost 1,641 (and counting) tanks, the U.S. says “over 1,000”. @Oryx has already confirmed 857. So this means Russia has lost between 25% (a very conservative estimate) and 50% (an optimistic estimate) in its springtime cringe-krieg…
…and the battle of Donbas. The lower-bound estimate of the lost tanks is still the size of the tank corps of 🇬🇧, 🇩🇪, 🇮🇹, and🇫🇷 combined.
Yep, that’s the world’s second military power definitely winning its 72-hour special military operation against…
I lost count of soldiers I used to know who were killed in Ukraine. Even before the ‘big war’. I remember many names, faces, stories that are not around anymore. I met quite a few people in war since 2014.
This guy was cleaning his weapon as I was with his unit. Now KIA.
That guy was the one I once fried potatoes with during a mortar attack. This guy was our Mi-24 pilot in Congo and we had like 300 mutual friends on FB. I rooted for that guy to be a prize winner as a young successful company leader. So many of them dead.
The death toll of someone you know grows. In Ukraine’s military and near-military community, everyone has mutual friends with anyone. The word is spread quickly: “Hey everyone, X is dead.” And you see a portrait of smiling soldier you used to share tea with in a dugout.
THREAD:
Regarding the ‘escalation’ some Putin fans are trying to scare people with.
Long story short - utter bullshit. The reality is that Russia is already reaching the very limits of its military might and is throwing almost everything it can against Ukraine.
It is already using pretty much all conventional weaponry it can deploy, including ballistic missiles and strategic bombers. It has committed pretty much all of its combat-capable manpower available for foreign operations.
And it runs low on reserves and manpower in general as operations in Ukraine are extremely slow and costly.
The shock of the cringe-krieg of February and March is over. Much of its most combat-capable formations, including airborne and naval infantry, have been…
I don’t think that we should expect to see Russian forces in Hostomel-Irpin-Bucha effectively locked in a death trap in the nearest time.
Ukrainian military will most likely continue breaking their supply lines and exhausting them in mobile defense along roads.
I don’t think this large enemy group is exhausted enough for that. And I don’t think Ukrainian forces have enough control north and south of Bucha, including the Zhytomyr highway — at least, not yet.
We’ll see what happens next.
IMHO it’s too early for Ukrainian forces to completely switch from mobile defense and mount a big time attack in this area — the command still wants to save and as much power as possible.
Russian air power in the region is not 100% suppressed yet.