Thread by @TrentTelenko

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I have a Russian fertilizer use question for you folks.

How does this US vs Ukraine Vs Russia % fertilizer production charts showing
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...huge US & Ukraine fertilizer use for their respective agricultural sectors square with the low Russian fertilizer use and dramatic grain export rise talked about here?🤔👇

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world-grain.com/articles/16273…

Text from the article:

"The first year of the 21st century, Russia exported a modest 696,000 tonnes of wheat. Ten years later, having made tremendous inroads into Asian, Middle East and African markets, Russia increased that total to 18.5 million tonnes.

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By 2018, Russia more than doubled that total when it exported a jaw-dropping 41.4 million tonnes of wheat, which still stands as a record. Since then, the country has exported around 35 million tonnes per year."

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Green Revolution 101:

"More energy & fertilizer inputs make for more agricultural outputs"...

...so...

...where is the Russian fertilizer coming from to increase exports from 696,000 tonnes in 2001 to 35 million tonnes in 2020?

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The reason for the question is a piece of WW2 history that @SashoTodorov1 pointed out for @ww2tv that the Haber–Bosch artificial nitrogen fixation process that makes ammonia for fertilizer also makes propellants & explosives for artillery shells.

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German fought two world wars using the Haber–Bosch artificial nitrogen fixation process to make shells, which it used before each war for agriculture.

Then you add an article like this:

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nadinbrzezinski.medium.com/logistics-coll…

That states the following:

"But under (Anatoly) Serdyukov, (former minister of defense replaced by Sergei Shoigu, who did not fix any of this.)they decided to put everything on a commercial basis and all BTRZ were transferred to JSC “Spetsremont” — the daughter of
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...“Oboronservice” — a commercial enterprise where Serdyukov himself was one of the owners. At the same time, Serdyukov staged a fight for modernization contracts with UVZ. Moreover, he himself decided to export — even a modification of the T-72B1MS independent of UVZ was...
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... developed, nicknamed “White Eagle” from journalists. The problem with this tank was in one thing — customers needed an engine of 1000 hp, and UVZ had a monopoly on it. Therefore, we got to the point that they tried to make their own version of the 1000-strong in ...
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...Tutaev, and immediately smeared the German Renk in the person of its French branch with an automatic transmission ESM 350. But they didn’t succeed."

Given the utter corruption of Russian minister of Sergei Shoigu after Anatoly Serdyukov, the idea that most Russian
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...artillery propellent & explosive production was diverted as fertilizer in the Russian agricultural sector for most of the 2000's looks plausible.

One of the things that fell out of Peter Schweizer book

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amazon.com/Reagans-War-Fo…

..."Reagan's War: The Epic Story of His Forty-Year Struggle and Final Triumph Over Communism" was the CIA's economic data on the Russian economy was awful and William Casey brought in a large number of business community 'irregulars' he ran out of the White House

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...so the rest of the CIA couldn't listen in on his CIA office lines.

Special Assistant to the Director of Central Intelligence Herbert E. Meyer confirmed Casey's 'Russian economy irregulars' in a 4 Nov. 2005 American Thinker article titled "Two Questions for George Tenet."

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Both Schweizer & Meyer's point on how the CIA had no clue as to economic inputs to Russian artillery shell manufacturing (or anything else) can be seen in how it computed Russian shell stocks via satellite images and late 1960's
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cia.gov/readingroom/do…

...Warsaw logistical documents brought to them via defectors.

This CIA "Compute Soviet Bloc artillery shell stocks stocks from old documents & satellite photos" was used from the 1960's until the end of the Cold War.

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This satellite intelligence method does not give me confidence the CIA would catch such a chemical feedstock diversion from shells to grain, given CIA missed the fact that Russian Army artillery didn't use mechanized logistics for its entire organization existence.

17/End.

@threadreaderapp unroll please.