Thread by @PhillipsPOBrien

Sunday update--again little map change, but important shift to the south and west (Kherson) and what that means. Ukraine and the strategy of telegraphing intentions (or not).

Like last week, there has been little shift in the front line between the two forces. Indeed the area of engagement in the Donbas seems to have shrunk noticeably in the last two weeks. The north end of the Donbas salient (Siversk-Slovyansk) seems to have gone very quiet.

What Russian offensive action there is is concentrated on Bakhmut and pushing forward from Donetsk. @TheStudyofWar map.

This limitation of areas of offensive has gone hand in hand with a decrease in concentrated ranged fire (imho) by Russia everywhere (though some people seem to be arguing the opposite). Might be easier to show you a three week FIRMS map from July 17 to now (when Russia pause was

...declared over and three weeks back from July 9. This long period will compensate somewhat for weather differences. If you look 3 weeks from July 9 backwards, you see a red mass of fire which basically follows the front line in the Donbas. Heavy Russian artillery throughout.

Now in the three weeks back from today--very different. Lots of fire everywhere (so its getting through the cloud cover, but very evenly spaced throughout the region. Much seems to be burning farm fields after harvest. Lots of fire where there isnt even fighting.

Kherson front just as different. From July 9 backwards, fire concentrated on a clear front line--deep and red. Now, spread everywhere but not nearly as concentrated. Indeed more fires recorded away from the front line (east bank of Dnipr) than along it.

Russian ability to have sustained, ranged attacks that allowed for their earlier, small advances in the Donbas, seems to have been effected significantly from the Ukrainian logistics attacks (depots, rail lines, bridges). Looks like front line units are getting smaller resupplies

Another reason for Russian decreasing attacks is that it seems the Russians have been rushing forces to the Kherson front. One osint assessment from @DefMon3 has the Russians with more than a third of their forces either on one of the banks of the Dnipr

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1555513448506736640?s=20&t=wWOnoCFkMbXAKfZn3kh4vA

Of course on one hand this makes lots of sense, as the Ukrainians have been talking up a major offensive of their own in Kherson oblast for well over a month. They are basically screaming at the Russians--we are coming! Its amazing.

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1555615843672793088?s=20&t=wWOnoCFkMbXAKfZn3kh4vA

So the Russians certainly believe them--and have reacted accordingly. This has led to speculation as to why the Ukrainians have been so open--I tried to summarize some ideas here.

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1555622809010946048?s=20&t=wWOnoCFkMbXAKfZn3kh4vA

I think the Ukrainians are doing this not because they are about to launch some large, combined arms, armor assault (I think such attacks are very difficult in this war). I think they are doing it because they view the Kherson front as a far better area for them...

...to keep doing what they have been doing in the Donbas--only better. Its far safer for them to operate their ranged forces and ground forces in Kherson as opposed to the Donbas. In the latter they were in a salient pushed into Russian lines and close to Russia itself.

In Kherson the Russians are exposed, pushed forward, and the Ukrainians can operate from their interior more easily. Moreover, the supply issue for the Russians is far trickier with rivers where bridges can be severed and only a few heavy rail lines.

The Ukrainian offensive should not be conceived of as an offensive in a modern combined arms manor. Its basically a form of accelerated attritional warfare. What they have done is tried to tempt the Russians into sending forces into an area where its easier for Ukr to do this

And the Russians have obliged. So my guess is that the Ukrainians will not rush forward in Kherson over the next week--they will take advantage of the fact that the Russians are giving them much easier targets to hit from a safer Ukr perspective.