Thread by @DFBeanCounter

Y'all hate Marcus Mariota simply because the Titans didnt pass the football.

Let's dive in.

If you think he's a bad quarterback, its probably because of the Titans pass attempts...

2015 - 34.4 (21st)
2016 - 31.5 (28th)
2017 - 31.3 (28th)
2018 - 27.2 (31st)
2019 - 26.9 (32nd)

Marcus Mariota's Yards/Attempt (Y/A) by year with minimum 250 attempts.

2015 - 7.6 (9th)
2016 - 7.6 (9th)
2017 - 7.1 (17th)
2018 - 7.6 (13th)
2019 - 7.5 (14th)

FWIW, Atlanta was 19th in pass attempts last year with 33.7.

I dont see that going down with what the Falcons have at RB and on defense, and especially now that Kyle Pitts and Drake London are in the fold.

Mariota's career y/a is 7.5.

His career low is 7.1 and his career high is 7.6.

Low - 7.1 * 33.7 * 17 = 4,067.59
Mid - 7.5 * 33.7 * 17 = 4,296.75
High - 7.6* 33.7 * 17 = 4,354.04

As for his TD rate we have:

Low - 2.9% * 33.7 * 17 = 16.6 td's
Mid - 4.3% * 33.7 * 17 = 24.6
High - 5.8% * 33.7 * 17 = 33.2

So we have a huge range of outcomes on td's which really drives QB scoring... other than rushing of course.

Mariota has averaged 18.4 - 25.5 rush yards per game in his starter days.

18.4 * 17 = 312.8
25.5 * 17 = 433.5

He's also averaged .17 rush td's per game during that period.

.17 * 17 = 2.89 td's

Wrap it all together and we have a pretty reliable fantasy starter in superflex leagues with a fairly attractive ceiling.

Rush ppg ~ 3.2
Pass ppg ~ 10.10
Pass tds ppg - 8.78

We are talking about a potential 22.08 ppg median outcome.

Marcus Mariota is your late round QB dart throw in 2022.

Now there is obviously risk that the Falcons pull what the Dolphins did to Ryan Fitzmagic when they sat him on the bench even though he was playing well to get Tua on the field.

Except the Falcons spent a third round pick on their rookie Quarterback.

Not the 5th overall pick.

There is also a chance that Mariota is but a shadow of his former self....

However I think that 29 is prime aged, not old at the QB position and even right up until his final days as a starter, Mariota was posting the same efficiency that he's always posted.

Beyond that, there is a chance that Drake London and Kyle Pitts are literally the best players that Mariota has ever passed to.

Mariota's leading receivers by year are:

2015 - Delanie Walker, Dorial Green-Beckham
2016 - Rishard Matthews, Delanie Walker
2017 - Delanie Walker, Rishard Mathews
2018 - Corey Davis, Taywan Taylor
2019 - first 6 games of his career AJB, Corey Davis.

Give me the Falcons duo over any of these other combinations.

Furthermore you all seem to be forgetting that the Falcons acquired Bryan Edwards over the summer and there is nobody better in the final two minutes and overtime than him.

Ok, that was a cheap shot, but I'm definitely not sorry.

Furthermore, how many of these third round QBs saw playing time NOT because of injury or atrocious QB play ahead of them?

Is the whole list Russell Wilson?

Now you might argue that Marcus Mariota could play so bad that the Falcons are obliged to give Desmond Ridder a few starts...

And if that is the case, so be it. But we've really never seen Marcus Mariota be *bad* at football. We've just seen him not pass very much.

So I guess, where I am coming from is looking at a player with a very attractive ceiling and a very reasonable opportunity to be a season long starter....

And it's like none of you even care.

Hit me up on patreon.com/bulletproofff if you like this type of thing.