Thomas C. Theiner Profile picture
Aug 8, 2022 16 tweets 5 min read Read on X
How did the US mount AGM-88 HARM missiles onto Ukrainian fighters... well, I think I know how. A short thread 🧵:

AGM-88B/C-1/D missiles have three operation modes:

• Self-Protect (SP)
• Target Of Opportunity (TOO)
• Pre-Briefed (PB)

1/n Image
When US Air Force F-16CM Falcon or US Navy EA-18G Growler fighters fly Wild Weasel missions they use Self Protect mode.
In this mode the Falcon's AN/ASQ-213 HTS R7 (to the left of the air inlet) and the Growler's AN/ALQ-218(V)2 (on the wingtips) sensor systems detect, locate,
2/n ImageImage
analyze, and identify sources of radio frequency emission. Once a threat is identified the pilot transmits the target data to the missile and launches it.

There is no chance this would work with Ukrainian fighters as US sensor systems can't be installed on Ukrainian planes
3/n
and there is no way to transmit targeting data to the missiles.

Self Protect mode can also be used with aircraft like the F-15C, F-15E, F/A-18C (photo), which lack the aforementioned sensor systems.
In this case the aircraft's own less accurate, less powerful radar warning

4/n Image
receiver would be used to identify targets. This would also not work with Ukrainian planes as there is no way to transmit the targeting data to the missiles.

In the Target Of Opportunity mode the AGM-88's own passive radar homing seeker scans for and detects targets.

5/n Image
Once the missile detects a target it transmits the target data to the plane's avionics and the pilot decides if it is a threat. The pilot then fires the missile, which attacks the target autonomously.
This wouldn't work with Ukrainian planes either as the missile can't

6/n
transmit target data to the pilots.

BUT - most importantly: Self Protect and Target Of Opportunity modes are suicide UNLESS a plane carries a full range of jamming and self-protection pods. This is why the US nowadays only uses the AGM-88 with F-16CM and EA-18G planes.

7/n
F-16CM carry an ALQ-184 ECM electronic countermeasures pod and at least one AN/ALE-50 towed decoy system.
EA-18G carry three AN/ALQ-99F(V) tactical jamming system pods (photo: one centerline and two under the wings).

8/n Image
Without these systems planes will not survive flying high and deep into an enemy air-defense bubbles.

This leaves only the Pre-Briefed mode. In this mode a AGM-88 is programmed before the fighter departs from the air base with the coordinates of an enemy radar site.

9/n
Once in the air the fighter releases the AGM-88 at maximum speed and maximum altitude, giving the missile a range in excess of 150 km.
Once released the AGM-88 will fly towards the coordinates, and when it reaches lock-on range it will scan for, detect, lock on and attack

10/n
the target autonomously.

This mode works with Ukrainian fighters jets. All they have to do is lift the AGM-88 up, go supersonic, and release the missile.

While AGM-88B and AGM-88C-1 use INS to steer them towards a target area, where they then scan for targets, the

11/n
AGM-88D also includes GPS-guidance, which enables the missile to strike known radar and air-defense sites, even when they do not emit radio frequencies.

And C-1 and D also have the ability to home-on-jam, which forces russia to switch off it's electronic warfare systems.

12/n
And how does Ukraine know where to aim the AGM-88... I think there are two ways:

1) locals reporting the locations of russian air defense systems, radars, jammers, electronic warfare systems
2) US Air Force or UK Royal Air Force RC-135V/W Rivet Joint aircraft, which are

13/n Image
used to detect, identify and geolocate electromagnetic signals.

US Air Force Rivet Joints have been used before to detected enemy radar and radio emissions and then vector AGM-88 carrying fighters towards these targets. However RC-135 flying over Romania can only scan the

14/n
Kherson Oblast... anything further is out of range.

Ukraine using AGM-88 forces the russians to switch off all their systems emitting radio frequencies. If they leave them on 24/7 as they did until now Ukraine will destroy them all with AGM-88.

15/n
And thanks to russia showing us the remnants of a AGM-88, we know that Ukraine received the D variant with GPS guidance.

So even if the russians switch their systems on and off, once the AGM-88D has locked on, there is no escape for the russians. Absolutely no escape.

16/end Image

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More from @noclador

Sep 13
Of course russia can quickly seize the Suwałki Gap and cut of the Baltics from the rest of NATO... but have you had a look at Kaliningrad's border and the flat dry country beyond?

There are 9 Polish brigades in that area (and 11 in reserve, with 4 more forming). Sure russia
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could move 50,000+ men to Kaliningrad to secure the border or build a defence line along the Pregoła river... but those need to be supplied from Belarus, which also is easily invaded unless russia sends 50,000+ troops to secure its flank there. A buildup of 200,000+ russian
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troops in Belarus would be noticed by NATO (and ordinary people in Belarus, who would upload 100s of videos of the arriving russians).
In summary the main risk isn't that russia suddenly seizes and fortifies the Suwałki Gap... the main risk is that russia starts building up
3/5
Read 5 tweets
Sep 7
The North Atlantic - one of the key battles in a russia-Europe war.

If Europe is defeated here, which with Europe's current forces and capabilities, is almost certain to happen... then russia can nuke the UK without fear of retaliation.

This will be a unsettling thread:
1/40 Image
This battle will be very different from the battles in the Black Sea and Baltic Sea, which I discussed in an early thread, which is linked below.

To understand the North Atlantic Battle we need to look at Imperial Germany's WWI submarine campaign,


2/n
and at the WWII Battle of the Atlantic. We will also have to take a deep dive into the Cold War and that era's submarines and submarine tactics.

In WWI the Imperial German Navy sent some 300+ submarines into the Atlantic, which sank more than 4,000 merchant vessels. The UK
3/n Image
Read 41 tweets
Sep 4
2 days ago I did a thread about the reasons russia can't defeat Ukraine and yet is still a deadly threat to Europe and NATO (link to the thread the next tweet).

Today I will talk about three of the fronts of a russia-Europe war:
1) Black Sea
2) Baltic Sea
3) North Atlantic

1/36 Image
These three fronts will be air and sea battles, while Finland and the Baltics will be air and land battles; about which I will talk in another thread in the coming days.

I do not believe the US under control of Trump or Vance would come to the aid
2/n
of Europe... we will be on our own, which will have very dire consequences for the battle in the North Atlantic and thus the UK.

First, let's look at the Black Sea, where russia's Black Sea Fleet has already been savaged by the Ukrainians (pic: the sinking cruiser Moskva).
3/n Image
Read 36 tweets
Sep 1
• russia has no chance to defeat Ukraine
• russia is a deadly threat to NATO and the EU

Both of these are true... because as of 2025 Ukraine fields a far more capable military than NATO's 30 European members combined (!).

Let me explain.
1/39 Image
As of August 2025 russia fields more than 1,3 million troops; at least half of which are fighting in or against Ukraine.

Ukraine has an estimated 1 million troops... maybe even 1,1 million troops. NATO's European members have double that: some 2.2 million troops, but
2/n Image
(there is always a "but" with European militaries):

• with more than double the personnel European NATO members manage to field only 20% more combat brigades than Ukraine. Partly because Western navies and air forces are bigger, but mostly because in all European militaries
3/n Image
Read 39 tweets
Aug 18
People forget that for most if its history Europe was much, much more militarized than even during the Cold War.

Italy, from the end of the Third War of Independence in 1866 to 1939 fielded always 360-400 battalions, which fell to 110-115 during the Cold War, as the US
1/14 Image
backed its European allies with the its massive air force. Today Italy fields 41 battalions (infantry, tanks, recon, special forces, rangers).

Likewise the British Army fielded for most of its history (especially after the 1908 Haldane reforms) 450-480 battalions, which came
2/n Image
in three types: 150-160 regular battalions (of which a third was always in India), around 100 reserve battalions to provide replacements for the regular battalions, and 200-220 territorial battalions, which (at least on paper) could not be deployed overseas. The British Army
3/n
Read 14 tweets
Jul 4
This is Berlin.

And this is how Berlin would look like 3 days after putin attacks Europe... because Germany doesn't have the air defence ammo to defend any of its city for more than 2 days.
1/12 Image
Image
This is Copenhagen.

And this is how Copenhagen would look like the morning after putin attacks Europe... because Denmark doesn't have any air defence to defend itself.
2/12 Image
Image
This is Paris.

And this is how Paris would look like a day after putin attacks Europe... because France only has SAMP/T air defence systems, which is as of now has very limited capabilities against ballistic missiles.
3/12 Image
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Read 12 tweets

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