It will take a long time to digest the longer-term meaning of the Pelosi debacle and China's response. This was a profoundly important event. Never before has China demonstrated such military will and capacity. Nothing can be the same again. 1/7
The US was utterly unprepared for such a response. Pelosi's visit was an inept display of division and miscalculation. America and the Taiwanese regime were the big losers. What will it mean? Let me speculate.2/7
Hitherto, the general view has been that while China holds the economic initiative in East Asia, the US is militarily dominant. China's response brings the latter into very serious question. China demonstrated that it is capable of successfully invading Taiwan.3/7
This has profound implications not only for Taiwan but for East Asia more generally and US allies in particular. There will be a growing view amongst some in Taiwan of the need to find some kind of rapprochement with China and to avoid the disaster of an invasion.4/7
Doubt will grow in E Asia about US willingness to sacrifice lives in defence of Taiwan (already questioned by US officials). How will Japan now perceive its dependence on the US? The decision of the pro-US S Korean PM not to meet Pelosi so as not to offend China spoke volumes.5/7
China's expression of unambiguous intent concerning the future of Taiwan will have sent a message to ASEAN countries that China, not the US, is the decisive force for the future in East Asia. Though they pretty much knew this already.6/7
China does not want to invade Taiwan. It is the choice of last resort. It is too risky with too many imponderables. It wants a peaceful solution. But if that is impossible, then it will, with huge reluctance, invade Taiwan. This is a solution everyone should seek to avoid.7/7
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