Here's the thing: when you don't have the facts, it's foolhardy to get over your skis being certain about any of this...but it's also entirely rational to fall back on your priors about the people, institutions, & incentives in play.
https://twitter.com/EsotericCD/status/1557038022151081986
One of those priors is Trump being shady, but another is the known record of FBI misconduct in getting warrants against him under the last D POTUS, which can't be dismissed as "old news" in this context.
And as to incentives, the White House & DOJ right now are run by people with a panting & visible desperation to keep Trump in the news & use stray voltage tactics to rally his supporters around him to prevent them from moving on (say, to DeSantis.)
If you want to talk people out of those entirely rational frameworks, you need radical transparency with hard facts.
"Trust us, we're the FBI" isn't gonna work in a Trump investigation. If you claim not to understand why, you're six years behind the plot.
At the same time, FBI & DOJ know perfectly well by now how this plays with Biden's #Resistance base ahead of the midterm. They can't possibly claim that doing this now, then keeping silent on the justifications, isn't producing precisely that political reaction.
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