Thread by @olga_chyzh

The significance of today’s attacks in Crimea is so much more than destroying Russian air cover for the battle for Kherson. That the US signed off on Ukraine striking a target in Crimea is a major game-changer in this war.

Whereas it previously looked like Crimea was off-limits, today’s attacks showed that may not be the case. It’s too early to tell whether this was an isolated incident—perhaps Ukraine made a case that destroying this airfield was tactically crucial for taking back Kherson.

But if Crimea is actually on the table, if the US is on board with Ukraine taking it back, that changes everything. Not just for Ukraine. For Putin and his hold on power.

Crimea is to Putin’s Russia what Jerusalem is to Israel, what the Bosporus is to Turkey, what Cyprus is to Greece. It’s not just a piece of land with pretty beaches, or a strategic location for Russia’s warm water fleet. It’s central to the heart and soul of Russian identity.

Annexing Crimea in 2014 was the single best thing that happened to Putin, a single act that erased all his misgivings and earned him sainthood in the eyes of the masses.

Fun fact for those who didn’t follow the events in 2014: Putin didn’t plan on annexing Crimea in 2014. He kind of stumbled into it: during the chaos of Maidan, he realized that Ukraine was in no position to resist.

He saw an opportunity and acted on it. And pay off it did. His ratings sky-rocketed, carried on the waves of patriotism and Soviet nostalgia.

That is why---should Ukraine take Crimea back—that would be the end of Putin. Now, taking back Crimea is still a big “should,” but all of a sudden went from a non-starter to a possibility.

Putin’s inner circle---those who keep him in power—has stood behind him, and even cheered on, throughout the war in Ukraine. That is because his inner circle holds ideologically conservative, isolationist, anti-West, and anti-democracy views.

I’ve talked about the inner circle before here: theguardian.com/commentisfree/…

It consists of the top military officials and the intelligence (the FSB). While they both currently support Putin and the war, they are not friends.

These individuals believe that might makes right, and that Ukraine is a part of Russia. They are unperturbed by war crimes and outright atrocities. They could get behind many outcomes---from taking Donbas to pressing on until they conquer the entire Ukraine.

One outcome that they will never get behind, however, is losing what in their Soviet-brainwashed minds is a core part of Russia.

It's one thing to experience some unexpected setbacks due to poor maintenance of military equipment (Who knew that tire treads needed so much upkeep?).

It’s a completely different thing to lose Crimea-- they may not be able to find it on a map, but every Russian, no matter their views on Putin, will inform you that Crimea is Russian. It’s Putin’s claim to fame (or competency as a leader) and his kryptonite.

Losing Crimea would pit Putin against both camps within his inner circle. On one hand, the hardliners have been long calling for total mobilization. On the other hand, the less hawkish elements have been advocating for calling it a victory after taking Donbas.

Were this to happen, the hardliners would actually have a reasonable case arguing that they could make it right, and with some luck, would get the rest to rally behind them.

They would likely declare total mobilization, and the self-righteous public may even get behind it. Mobilization, of course, would cause its own problems (there is a reason why Putin hasn’t done it).

The FSB, in the meantime, would also have a case. They would blame Putin for incompetence and call for cutting the losses and re-grouping.

Who would win in this battle between the brains and the might? Who knows, but my bet is on the FSB. They always seem to finagle their way out of tight spots.